Ukraine’s F-16 Fighters: A Game-Changer or an Expensive Photo Op?

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Key Points: Ukraine has received F-16 Vipers, marking a significant milestone in its defense against Russia. These advanced jets, initially supplied by Denmark and the Netherlands, will enhance Ukraine’s air defense capabilities, including targeting Russian drones, cruise missiles, and glide bombing campaigns.

-Equipped with NATO-standard AIM-120 AMRAAMs and Storm Shadow missiles, the F-16s will push for air superiority, close air support, and suppression of enemy air defenses. However, pilot shortages and logistical challenges hinder their full deployment.

-Despite these hurdles, the F-16s symbolize Ukraine’s deeper integration into NATO’s defense systems, signaling a shift in both the war’s dynamics and Ukraine’s future defense strategy.

Ukraine’s F-16s: A Game-Changer Against Russia?

Finally, at long last, Ukraine has F-16 Vipers, with fighters coming into theatre a few months back. Of all the equipment that the West has transferred to Ukraine, advanced fighter aircraft hold perhaps the greatest symbolic significance. 

How did we get here?  And what can these fighters do for Ukraine?

History of the F-16 Delivery to Ukraine

As soon as it became apparent that Russia would not rapidly occupy Kyiv and displace the Zelenskyy government, shipments of weapons from the West began to flow into Ukraine.

Calls for the transfer of fighter aircraft to Ukraine began in earnest in the spring of 2022, leading to the transfer of a number of Soviet-era aircraft still operating in NATO air forces. These aircraft have operated directly in Ukrainian service and have also been cannibalized to rehabilitate Ukrainian aircraft of the same model.

Although these efforts helped redress some of the imbalance between Russian and Ukrainian air forces, they did not represent a natural solution to Ukraine’s airpower problems.

Last year, several NATO countries, with the support of the United States, began promising to transfer F-16s to Ukraine as soon as pilots became available through an American foreign training program.

How Will Ukraine Get These Fighter Jets? 

The initial batches of F-16s have come from Denmark and the Netherlands, with others to follow. Some dozens of jets have now been pledged, although this number could increase substantially if the United States decides to contribute directly from its reserve of Vipers. The F-16 has, throughout its long production history, been one of the most prolific aircraft in the world, making it an extremely attractive target for Ukrainian acquisition.

The Pilot Problem

Unfortunately, the bottleneck lies in the availability of pilots to fly those aircraft. To Kyiv’s considerable disgruntlement, the United States has declined to rush Ukrainian pilots through its foreign pilot training program. This means that Ukraine only has a fraction (literally one third) of the pilots it would need to operate those sixty Vipers. Indeed, an ideal pilot-aircraft ratio is roughly 2-1, which Ukraine will probably not meet for several years.

Trained crew for maintaining F-16s are also in short supply. Moreover, most analysts believe that it will take time for qualified pilots to develop sufficient proficiency to take advantage of all of the capabilities of the Viper.

This has led some in Ukraine to call for the establishment of a “Foreign Flying Legion” which would allow foreign pilots to fly Vipers in Ukrainian uniform. However, Washington has thus far opposed such a measure over escalation concerns.

What They’ll Be Used For

The first job of the Vipers will involve air defense, primarily hunting drones and cruise missiles launched as part of Russia’s strategic bombing campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure. The F-16s have surveillance capabilities that exceed those of existing Ukrainian fighters and will carry NATO-standard missiles, representing a significant improvement on post-Soviet stock.

Carrying AIM-120 AMRAAMs, the F-16s will also be able to threaten Russian aircraft operating near the front. Over the past several months Russian fighter-bombers have successfully engaged in a campaign of “glide bombing,” launching guided munitions on a glide path from ranges of up to 60km. AMRAAMs can outdistance that, probably not ending the practice but certainly giving Russian pilots more to think about as they approach launch points.

F-16s can also carry Storm Shadow missiles, which depending on political restrictions can strike targets deep behind the front lines. In the longer term, Ukrainian pilots can take advantage of the characteristics of the F-16 to conduct close air support missions and especially suppression of enemy air defense (SEAD) operations to inflict damage directly upon Russian ground formation.

Like any other aircraft, F-16s can be shot down. Given the small number of available pilots, there is no doubt that Russian aviators will have a keen interest in shooting down a Viper. Fortunately, the F-16s come equipped with state of the art defensive technology that will likely make them the most lethal aircraft in the Ukrainian sky. However effective the F-16s may be in the air, they will be vulnerable on the ground to attack from Russian missiles and drones. Just as the Ukrainians have undertaken deep strikes against precious Russian air assets, the Russians will target the airbases known to maintain F-16s.

F-16 and the Future of the Ukraine War 

The transfer of F-16s is perhaps the most visible indication thus far of Ukraine’s growing integration with NATO. The post-Soviet Ukrainian Air Force isn’t quite dead, but it is now fully in the process of transforming into a NATO-compliant service.

The F-16s will require munitions and spare parts that will generate supply chains that will deepen cooperation between Kyiv and the West. This matters a great deal for the war, but also for Ukraine’s future. Whatever peace eventually ends, the war between Ukraine and Russia will now need to take into account the integration of Ukraine’s military into the NATO defense industrial base.

Until then, F-16s and their Ukrainian pilots will create a new military problem for Russia to deal with.

About the Author: Dr. Robert Farley

Dr. Robert Farley has taught security and diplomacy courses at the Patterson School since 2005. He received his BS from the University of Oregon in 1997, and his Ph. D. from the University of Washington in 2004. Dr. Farley is the author of Grounded: The Case for Abolishing the United States Air Force (University Press of Kentucky, 2014), the Battleship Book (Wildside, 2016), Patents for Power: Intellectual Property Law and the Diffusion of Military Technology (University of Chicago, 2020), and most recently Waging War with Gold: National Security and the Finance Domain Across the Ages (Lynne Rienner, 2023). He has contributed extensively to a number of journals and magazines, including the National Interest, the Diplomat: APAC, World Politics Review, and the American Prospect. Dr. Farley is also a founder and senior editor of Lawyers, Guns and Money.