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Key Points: Experts continue to question the vulnerability of expensive U.S. Navy aircraft carriers. Some say they could be quickly sunk in a war with China thanks to its massive stockpile of ballistic and cruise missiles.
-Despite this possibility, Aircraft carriers remain central to U.S. naval strategy despite modern challenges like China’s A2/AD defenses and maintenance costs.
-Their ability to project power, support fighter operations, and respond to threats worldwide makes them indispensable.
-Although costly, carriers are survivable and can take significant damage while remaining operational.
-Future carrier strategies focus on extending aircraft range and pairing carrier groups with submarines to counter advanced threats from state actors like China.
Despite their vulnerabilities, carriers offer unparalleled force projection, making them vital for maintaining global trade security and deterring adversaries. This ensures their relevance for decades to come.
Why the Aircraft Carrier Remains Indispensable in 2025 and Beyond
I sleep better when I know American aircraft carriers are patrolling the high seas and are not in maintenance or repair periods stateside.
These floating air bases best project U.S. naval power in hotspots around the world – steaming with their high number of support ships and submarines that make up a carrier strike group.
I love seeing aircraft carrier operations, especially when F/A-18 E/F Super Hornets and F-35C Lightning IIs are launched from the flight deck.
Nothing like it exists in the world; although a handful of countries operate flat-tops, the United States is still the global leader in aircraft carriers.
History Has Proven the Aircraft Carrier Has No Rival
The carrier proved its worth during World War Two. Decades of deployments showed their mettle during the Korea and Vietnam conflicts.
The United States would not have won the Cold War without the carrier. They enforced no-fly zones and conducted humanitarian missions.
During the wars in Iraq and the Global War on Terror, it was the aircraft carrier that overawed the enemy and conducted valuable close air support missions that saved countless soldiers and marines.
Different Naval Threat Scenarios
Now, the threat environment has changed into more potential conflicts with state actors such as China, Russia, and North Korea.
Aircraft Carriers are needed in the Middle East to keep sea lanes of communication and trade routes open. Terrorist groups such as the Houthis, Al-Qaeda, and ISIS are still strong, and it will take air power from carriers to form an offensive vanguard against insurgencies.
What Is the Future of the Aircraft Carrier? Some Fear a Nightmare Scenario
That’s the past and present, but what about the future?
China has developed a defense bubble around its First Island Chain of territorial claims that could endanger American flat-tops for years. This is called Anti-Access/ Area Denial or A2/AD. Under this rubric, aircraft carriers are threatened. Numerous anti-ship missiles could sink a carrier.
The huge ships are not immune to torpedoes from enemy submarines, and China has its own aircraft carriers that can send warplanes in the air that could destroy an American flattop.
Entering Maintenance Hell
These are not the only complications.
Carriers require costly refueling and refurbishing periods lasting longer than five years and cost billions. The Navy has eleven carriers, but at least three are in maintenance and out of action. Tragically, the living conditions aboard carriers like the USS George Washington were so poor that several sailors committed suicide during its last repair period.
The U.S. Navy must also concede that it could lose an aircraft carrier in battle with China. The support ships have the vaunted Aegis Combat System, but the next war will be fought with missiles, and some of the projectiles will penetrate the defensive shield and could likely damage, if not sink, a carrier.
A Flat-top Can Take a Punch
But we know from the experience of the USS America, a carrier that the United States sunk on purpose in 2005 to prove its survivability, that these warships can take an explosive hit and remain partially seaworthy for weeks.
It would take several missile strikes to sink one of the mammoth ships. This would take a carrier out of action, but at least most of the crew would survive.
How Does the Navy’s Aircraft Carrier Question Get Resolved?
I still support aircraft carriers despite the expense, maintenance requirements, and risk of losses.
There is no way to bring that much force to a naval fight. China has three carriers, and the U.S. Navy must always match that strength with strike groups in East Asia. China can play defense with A2/AD, but the U.S. Navy will find a way to survive by staying out of range of Chinese anti-ship missiles and extending the range of its fighters through aerial refueling.
The Navy should, however, build more submarines. Undersea warfare, along with carrier aviation, is the best combination for 21st-century maritime strength. Subs do not cost as much to build or maintain. They are increasingly stealthy and survivable.
The Department of Defense has plowed too much money into aircraft carriers to turn back now. We are in for a penny and in for a pound. They make the most sense to balance against China and keep the high seas open for global trade. They can answer conventional and asymmetric threats, and they carry ample power and prestige. Fighters and support aircraft are better than they were 20 years ago thus the carrier has greater relevance as we head into 2025. Anti-access/Area-Denial stratagems from China can be mitigated and navigated by a carrier strike group. China just may be over-confident in its own carrier operations.
The U.S. will have the upper hand with its current naval strategy that utilizes flat-tops in various regions to maintain peace through strength.
The downfall of the aircraft carrier will not come any time soon.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.