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China is leveraging its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine to increase its access to the Arctic, where the two are now engaged in “unprecedented styles of collaboration,” a top Pentagon official said Dec. 5.
Iris A. Ferguson, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Arctic and Global Resilience, said China and Russia have conducted joint patrols with warships, bombers, and their coast guards in the past year or two.
“The increasing levels of collaboration between Russia and the PRC, and unprecedented styles of collaboration, especially in the military domain, give us pause,” Ferguson said during an appearance at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
China has no Arctic territory, but claims to be a “near-Arctic state” and has sought for years to increase its presence there, which it sees as strategically advantageous for shipping and military activity. The war in Ukraine, which left Russia isolated on the world stage, played into China’s strategy.
“A couple of years ago, I think the broad assumption was that the Arctic is too important for Russia to let the PRC in—this is one of the crown jewels for Russia,” Ferguson said. “But we’re seeing an increasing amount of access, not only economically, but diplomatically, scientifically…. The military angle is an interesting new addition to access.”
Beyond signaling its growing presence in the Arctic, China has benefited from its cooperation with Russia by gaining “access to remote places in the Arctic, to give them experience and exposure, from a military perspective, that’s new and unique,” Ferguson said.
While some of China’s interest in the Arctic may be scientific or economic, its lack of transparency, general aggressiveness, and focus on dual-use efforts are cause for concern, said Matthew P. Funaiole, senior fellow of the China Power Project at CSIS.
“It doesn’t want to have demarcation between [economic and military development],” Funaiole said. “It’s like, ‘How can we get both at the same time?’”
In July, the Pentagon released an updated Arctic Strategy that pledged to keep a “watchful eye” on Russia and China’s collaboration in the Arctic, and Ferguson reiterated the core tenets of that strategy: upgraded domain awareness and regular exercises.
Indeed, Ferguson said the department is looking at how it can better use its Arctic exercises “as a deterrent effect, working alongside our allies and partners.” Just this week, U.S. Air Force B-52 bombers conducted live-fire exercises alongside Norway and the U.K.
Following through on those, however, will require increased investment, something that DOD has shied away from in recent history.
“The Arctic is one of those places that, if you look at a map, it is really strategic. It’s also a place that has been [overlooked], I think, quite a bit over the past several decades,” Ferguson said. “And I think one reason for that was because we were really heavily focused on operations in the Middle East for so long. We invested really heavily in the Arctic region during the Cold War era, and we thought things were safe and fine, and climate change wasn’t necessarily a thing. And it was a strategic buffer, and we could focus elsewhere. And we consolidated a lot of our infrastructure. We got rid of a lot of our infrastructure, actually, and we kind of took it as like a little bit of a luxury, quite frankly, to be able to focus our sights elsewhere.”
But the risks of overlooking the Arctic today could be dire. The Arctic, she suggested, may seem unimportant when looked at on a flat map. But looked at on a glob, or in a polar-centric map, it’s importance and proximity to key parts of the world becomes clear.
China’s growing influence on Russia and its increasing military presence in the Arctic, she said, presents a clear and imminent threat.