Here’s Where Things Stand on JD Vance’s Replacement in the Senate

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In July, when Donald Trump announced that Ohio Sen. JD Vance would be his vice president, I profiled the top contenders for the coveted Senate seat that will be vacant the day Vance takes the oath of office. Gov. Mike DeWine will appoint a replacement to fill the seat until a special election can be held in 2026. Since that writing, several candidates have removed their names from consideration, and a few others have entered the fray. As we speak, would-be senators are making their pilgrimages to Columbus to kiss DeWine’s ring. 

Anytime you have a vacant seat like this, palace intrigue is sure to follow, and there’s been plenty of that. While there is an element of public sentiment that comes into play, the decision will ultimately be DeWine’s. 

DeWine has said he’s looking for someone who would be: 

• A good candidate who could both win primaries and keep the seat in Republican hands come 2026 (midterms tend to be challenging for the party in power) and again in 2028
• He’s looking for someone who wants to serve beyond 2026 rather than a “placeholder” because with seniority in the Senate comes more power
• Potential to be productive in the Senate, serving the state’s constituents rather than building a celebrity profile.

His press secretary, Dan Tierney, added one additional qualification in an interview with the Dayton Daily News last month: “The only additional thing is the governor served 12 years in U.S. Senate, so he’s got some strong opinions on what he likes to see in a senator. And what you probably know from covering the governor, is when he was in the Senate he really tried to do the work of the Senate in terms of working through the committee process, focusing on legislation, working across the aisle.” 

With those clues in mind, let’s get to the candidates. 

First, those who have said they’re not interested:

• Former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy said he wants to focus on DOGE, President-elect Trump’s government efficiency program 
• Attorney General Dave Yost said, “I’m an executive,” when asked if he is seeking the Senate seat. He said he would not accept the appointment. Look for him to run for governor. 

Next, individuals who are likely not in the running but haven’t overtly declined: 

• Lt. Gov. Jon Husted, who is low-key building a gubernatorial campaign with the support of DeWine. He most likely doesn’t want to go to the Senate, but never say never. Until he states publicly that he doesn’t want the job, he can’t be completely ruled out. 
• Former Congressman Jim Renacci, who ran for governor in 2022 after Trump asked him to bow out of the Senate race. He lost that primary to DeWine after spoiler/plant newcomer “Cowboy Joe” Blystone split the non-DeWine vote. His name has been tossed around, but there’s likely still bad blood between Renacci and DeWine after the bruising primary. 
• John Kasich, the son of a mailman and former governor, could possibly be in the mix. (Please, no.) He’s 72 years old, so I’d be surprised if he’s interested. Still, he can’t be ruled because these people never seem to go away. 

Now, on to the likely finalists in the Senatestakes: 

1. Secretary of State Frank LaRose. He’s a decorated Green Beret and former state senator hot off running a stellar election in Ohio. He’s been a leading voice on election integrity at both the state and federal levels. Prior to the election, he sued the Department of Homeland Security for access to citizen records. He purged non-citizens from the voter rolls, beefed up election security, and referred multiple voter fraud cases for prosecution in the lead-up to the election. Earlier this year, LaRose lost the primary seat for the state’s other Senate seat to wealthy businessman Bernie Moreno after Trump endorsed the latter, effectively torpedoing LaRose’s campaign. (Moreno went on to beat incumbent Sherrod Brown in the general election.) Trump did endorse LaRose for secretary of state (and LaRose endorsed Trump). He’s young (45), energetic, and dedicated to America First principles. On paper, he checks all of DeWine’s boxes, but DeWine is close with State Sen. Matt Dolan and endorsed him over LaRose in the Senate primary, which may not bode well for LaRose. 

2. Matt Dolan. The 59-year-old is a two-term state senator representing deep-blue Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) and is due to be term-limited out. Prior to that, he served three terms in the Ohio House before being term-limited. He is part owner of the Cleveland Guardians Indians (don’t get me started), a lawyer, and able to cough up millions to fund his own campaign, as he did in the most recent Senate race (he came in second to Moreno). His legislative experience and ability and willingness to self-fund could appeal to DeWine, in addition to his moderate political views. Nevertheless, it’s not clear that he could win a statewide primary, given his past animosity toward Trump/MAGA and Trump’s disdain for the Dolan family’s decision to change the name of the Cleveland Indians. 

3. Jane Timken. She’s a Harvard grad and a lawyer and was the first female chair of the Ohio Republican Party, serving from 2021-2017. She has no legislative experience, but like Dolan, she comes from a wealthy family (Timken Steel) and is able to self-fund, which she did in the 2022 Senate primary. Fifty-eight-year-old Timken placed fifth in a seven-person primary and only managed to scare up 62,000 votes after loaning her campaign $3.5 million. (Vance went on to win the primary and then secure the seat vacated by Rob Portman for Republicans.) To be perfectly honest, the only real thing Timken has going for her (besides the money) is that she would be the first female senator. Will DeWine choose her to make a historic statement, or will he decide based on merit and experience? That’s the big question. 

4. Congressman Mike Carey. The 53-year-old energy executive/lobbyist and self-proclaimed political outsider won a second term in Congress in November by a healthy margin, running on America First principles. He’s close with Trump ally Corey Lewandowski, and Trump endorsed him twice, which could be a plus or a minus with DeWine. He has a lifetime Heritage Action Score of 69% (versus the average House Republican score of 74%). He’s a good fundraiser, which is always a plus when facing competitive races. One big problem for Carey is the slim Republican majority in the House with the expected exits of Matt Gaetz, Elise Stefanik, and Mike Walz, and he may be needed there, especially in the early days of Trump’s second term. House Speaker Mike Johnson said on Friday, “Do the math. We have nothing to spare.” It would take an estimated six months to fill Carey’s seat if he resigns. Another problem is his ties to the biggest bribery scandal in the history of Ohio government, one that landed both the House speaker and the ORP chairman in jail. DeWine may be skittish about supporting Carey. 

5. Rep. Dave Joyce. The 67-year-old has been in Congress since 2012. Prior to that, he was the Geauga County prosecutor. He’s a member of the Republican Governance Group, which includes the moderate wing of the GOP, and the Republican Mainstreet Partnership, which bills itself as the group with “leaders who get things done.” He has a dismal 53% lifetime rating on the Heritage Action Score, and he was the only Republican to vote against holding AG Merrick Garland in contempt of Congress. His legislative experience at the federal level could be a big plus for DeWine, along with being on the powerful House Appropriations Committee, which could help him bring home the bacon for Ohio. But again, that slim GOP majority in the House could come into play. 

The only poll I’m aware of is an internal poll being circulated by Larose’s folks. The Nov. 25 poll by WPA Intelligence found that out of 1,028 likely voters, LaRose leads in a hypothetical GOP primary with 17%, versus 10% for Husted and single digits for the rest of the field. In a general election scenario facing a Democrat candidate, LaRose again comes out on top with 49% to the hypothetical Democrat’s 42%. 

Could a Trump endorsement seal the deal for someone? I doubt it. DeWine is no fan of Trump, yet he must consider that a candidate who doesn’t have Trump’s seal of approval could end up being a less-than-one-full-term senator, which would go against one of DeWine’s goals. 

One way or another, this will all be wrapped up by early January when the Senate convenes for the first time. Hopefully, the decision will come sooner rather than later so that whoever he chooses can hit the ground running. 

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