House Republicans Will Have 3-Seat Majority After Final Race Called in 2024

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Seven House Republicans lost their seats, though the conference picked up new seats in Pennsylvania, Alaska, Colorado and Michigan to earn a 3-seat majority.

WASHINGTON—Republicans will have 220 seats in the House of Representatives in the 119th Congress, completing their majority caucus, after the last election to the House with outstanding results was called on Dec. 5.

The House Republican Conference declared victory in its quest to retain the majority in 2024’s general elections on Nov. 12, and the Associated Press called the majority-making 218th House seat for the GOP—in Arizona’s 6th Congressional district, where Rep. Juan Ciscomani won re-election—on Nov. 13.

However, in a few races, the differences between candidates were just hundreds of votes and thus were too close to call until recounts and legal proceedings were completed. That process concluded on Dec. 4, nearly one month after Election Day on Nov. 5.

In the 13th district near the San Francisco Bay Area, Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) lost re-election to Democratic nominee Adam Gray by just 187 votes out of over 205,000 votes cast. The contest was the last federal race of the 2024 general election, with results to be called.

Democrats also flipped a GOP-held seat in California’s 45th district, which is located in the Los Angeles Metropolitan Area. The contest’s Democratic nominee, labor lawyer Derek Tran, defeated two-term Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.) by a narrow margin of 613 votes, with the race being called on Nov. 27. The district was also regarded as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report. The race was divided along county lines—the Los Angeles County half of the district voted heavily for Tran, while the Orange County portion voted narrowly for Steel.

Meanwhile, in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, two-term Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks defeated Democratic nominee Christina Bohannan by just 798 votes, with that race also called on Nov. 27. The race was expected to be highly competitive, and the Cook Political Report had rated it as a “toss up.”

These results conclude the counting of votes in 2024’s federal elections, which entail Republican control of both houses of the 119th Congress from 2025 to 2027.

The House majority will be narrow, at just three seats, a decline from five seats after 2022’s midterm election.

President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election also means that conservatives will control all three branches of government, as six of the U.S. Supreme Court’s nine current justices were appointed by Republican presidents and are widely regarded as being conservative jurists.

Losses and Gains

Steel and Duarte will be among the several Republican incumbents who lost re-election in 2024. The list includes Rep. Mike Garcia of California as well as Reps. Marc Molinaro, Anthony D’Esposito, and Brandon Williams of New York. Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.) also lost re-election, though she will be nominated by Trump to be the Secretary of Labor once he takes office on Jan. 20, 2025.

These losses, however, were offset by Republican gains in five other seats. In Alaska’s at-large district, Republican nominee Nick Begich defeated Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) by a two-percentage-point margin. The party also won two House seats in Northeastern Pennsylvania: in the 7th District, Republican state legislator Ryan Mackenzie defeated Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.); in the 8th District, Republican businessman Robert Bresnahan defeated Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.).

Other Republican gains included State Rep. Gabe Evans (R)’s victory in the race for Colorado’s 8th Congressional district, in which he defeated Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D). In Michigan’s 7th district, former state Sen. Tom Barrett (R) beat Democrat Curtis Hertel Jr., also a former state senator, in the open election to replace Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D), who herself was elected to the U.S. Senate from Michigan, replacing the retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.).

Vacancies

Despite their victories, Republicans will not begin the 119th Congress with a full majority. Several members of the conference have been selected by Trump for executive branch positions and, thus, will have to resign their seats in the House to assume them.

Departing members include Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.), who was appointed National Security Adviser with cabinet rank. Waltz will take his seat in the 119th Congress on Jan. 3, only to resign 17 days later on Jan. 20 to assume his new office, which does not require Senate confirmation. Similarly, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) will also resign from office should her nomination to be the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations be confirmed by the Senate confirmation.

It’s highly likely that special elections to these seats will yield Republican winners, given their partisan rating and electoral history.

One former House Republican, Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), was nominated for the role of attorney general by Trump but withdrew shortly afterward amid heavy opposition to his nomination. Gaetz resigned from the 118th Congress immediately after he was nominated and, despite his withdrawal, has announced he will not take his seat in the 119th Congress. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) has already announced plans to hold special elections for the seats held by Gaetz and Waltz.

The immediate departures of Waltz and Gaetz and the expected departure of Stefanik will mean the conference has a zero-seat majority of 217 members in a 432-member House. During this time, Republicans will need every single member of the conference to vote with the party in order to pass legislation, and a sudden vacancy may unexpectedly give House Democrats the majority.