Trump’s California Gains: A Win for Him, but a GOP Loss

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California often acts as a bellwether for political trends in the United States – what happens here often signals what’s ahead for the nation. As conservatives reflect on Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential victory, the Republican Party must closely examine the lessons California offers. While Trump’s improved performance at the top of the ticket may seem encouraging, it exposes deeper issues within the GOP that extend far beyond the state.

At first glance, Trump’s numbers in California appear to show progress. In 2016, he lost the state by 4.2 million votes, securing just 31.6 percent. By 2020, he improved slightly to 34.3 percent, though the margin of loss widened to 5.1 million votes. In 2024, he captured 38 percent, narrowing the loss to 3.2 million votes. These gains are notable, but they mask the larger challenges the GOP faces.

Despite Trump’s growth, Republicans continue to lose ground down-ballot. In 2024, GOP candidates won just 33 of California’s 154 contested races – a negligible improvement over 2020 but significantly below the 42 wins in 2016. Voter registration tells a stark story: Democrats comprise 45.83 percent of the electorate, while Republicans trail at 24.95 percent. California remains solidly blue, with Democrats controlling all statewide offices, holding supermajorities in the state assembly and senate, and dominating 43 of the state’s 52 congressional seats.

This disconnect highlights an uncomfortable truth: Trump’s national victories don’t automatically translate to success down-ballot in deeply progressive states. Clinging to Trump’s coattails or blaming fraud distracts from the real issues. To compete in California, Republicans must confront uncomfortable realities: The electorate is younger, more diverse, and more progressive than the national average. Latino, Asian, and millennial voters are shaping California’s future, and current GOP messaging is failing to resonate.

To regain relevance, California Republicans must move beyond an overreliance on Trump and outdated appeals to election integrity. Instead, they need fresh, localized strategies. California offers a unique opportunity to develop policies that not only resonate with voters here but also serve as models for success in other blue states nationwide.

The California GOP must focus on issues that matter most to voters: housing affordability, homelessness, and the high cost of living. By offering concrete, actionable solutions to these problems, Republicans can demonstrate their commitment to addressing the daily challenges people face. Supporting housing development reforms or proposing plans to reduce rising utility costs could help the party reach a broader electorate.

Additionally, the California GOP must move beyond catering primarily to an older, whiter, and more conservative base. Building year-round relationships with younger, more diverse voters is essential – listening to their concerns, supporting local initiatives, and showing that Republicans stand for opportunity, innovation, and inclusivity. These values will resonate when paired with credible, forward-thinking policies.

Moreover, the California GOP needs more resources and support from the national party, including strategic fundraising, candidate recruitment, and tailored planning. The RNC must empower local leaders and invest in the infrastructure necessary to build a robust grassroots network that reflects the state’s evolving demographics.

Finally, Republicans must stop blaming voter fraud or external factors for their losses. This narrative alienates moderates and independents – crucial voters in state and local races. Instead, the GOP should build trust by offering real solutions and demonstrating competence in governing.

California’s challenges reflect broader shifts in the American electorate. If Republicans fail to adapt, they risk losing ground in other states with similarly diverse populations. However, California need not be a lost cause. It can serve as a proving ground for strategies that embrace diversity, empower local leaders, and prioritize policies that improve people’s lives. By addressing these future realities, the GOP can regain its relevance – not only in California but across blue states nationwide.

Steve Williams is the Republican nominee who challenged Maxine Waters for California’s 43rd Congressional District in 2024 and is set to challenge her again in 2026.