A U.S.-China War over Taiwan Could Mean Millions of People Dead

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Key Points: A U.S.-China war over Taiwan would be catastrophic for all parties. China would initiate with a missile barrage on Taiwan, followed by amphibious assault preparations.

-The U.S. Navy, deploying carrier strike groups, would attempt to defend Taiwan while avoiding China’s anti-ship missile threats. Aerial battles between U.S. F-35s, F-22s, and Chinese J-20s would dominate the skies, with Guam’s strategic defenses playing a critical role.

-Both nations could suffer significant naval and cyber losses. Taiwan must bolster its defenses with increased spending and military aid from the U.S. to deter aggression.

-Diplomatic channels would be essential to mitigate escalating devastation.

What Would a U.S. War Against Taiwan Look Like?

While much of the world’s attention is focused on the war in Ukraine plus the conflict in Gaza and Lebanon, including Iran, there is still the potential of China and Taiwan blowing up. China frequently conducts military exercises to someday either quarantine, blockade, or invade Taiwan. Chinese aircraft fly into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone on a weekly basis. It seems that a shooting war could spark at any time.

It’s About Reunification

What would that conflict look like? Taiwan is about 110 miles off the coast of Mainland China. Beijing claims the island as its own. China’s President Xi Jinping has not ruled out the use of force to maintain the One China policy. He believes that total reunification is unavoidable. Any shooting war that would involve the United States would be bloody, with death and destruction on both sides.

China Can Conduct Shock and Awe Too

In an amphibious attack against Taiwan, China would first deliver a shock and awe-missile barrage at military targets in Taiwan. Hundreds of missiles from shore, ships, and airplanes would explode on the island. 

Two U.S. Carrier Battle Groups Enter the War

The U.S. Navy would have two aircraft carrier battle groups in the area escorted by destroyers, frigates, cruisers, and submarines. This would be the first show of force. Then, they would attempt to stay out of the range of China’s anti-ship missiles and fire their own over-the-horizon missiles at ships and airplanes attacking Taiwan.

Next Is the Aerial Battle

The United States would also fly stealth warplanes like the F-35 and the F-22. China would answer with its own fighter planes, like the J-20, which has radar-evading attributes. There would likely be a missile exchange with the Americans. The U.S. Navy would use its ballistic missile defense from the Aegis combat system to ward off enemy missiles.

Guam Is Critical

The Chinese could also attack Guam. Guam is the U.S. territory closest to China and one of East Asia’s most strategic islands. Without Guam, defending Taiwan would be difficult. China has H-6 bombers that could reach Guam and the ability to fire cruise and ballistic missiles, including hypersonic weapons. 

Guam uses the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) long-range anti-missile system. A missile defense modernization effort is underway with additional air defenses in Guam, although that effort will take until 2026.

The War Enters the Cyber Domain

The United States could also use a cyber-attack against China to disable its radar and sensor systems, spoof its missiles, and hinder its targeting and guidance systems. 

China would likely conduct cyber operation against Taiwan.

The Invasion of Taiwan Is On

The Chinese would also patrol a no-fly and no-shipping zone in the area to consolidate the protection of airspace and sea. China would deploy its submarines close to Taiwan to fire land-attack cruise missiles at the island. Then, the Chinese amphibious attack would come.

Could the U.S. Navy Lose a Carrier?

Due to the different ways that China can attack U.S. carriers with missiles from land, sea, and air, the Americans will have to plan for one of their carriers to be damaged or destroyed. This is an unthinkable proposition, but it is time the U.S. Navy realizes that this could happen.

That would mean the U.S. Navy would depend on its other aircraft carriers to pick up the slack against China. If China destroyed or damaged one American carrier, it would likely continue the amphibious attack against Taiwan. 

The Americans Strike Back Against Chinese Carriers

This would be a terrible scenario for the United States, but there is also the possibility that the Americans could sink a Chinese aircraft carrier and a few support ships. This could either strengthen Chinese resolve or deter them and create a situation where diplomacy could create a ceasefire. 

Taiwan Must Spend More on Its Military

To dissuade the Chinese, what must happen is for Taiwan to spend more on its defense. 

Taipei has raised its defense budget 14 percent to $19.4 billion in 2024.

Meanwhile, China is spending $229.47 billion—a 6.8 percent rise from 2023. The United States also announced that it would potentially sell Taiwan $1.1 billion of air defense and anti-ship missiles. 

On September 14, 2023, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee approved $4.5 billion in military aid.

There are no good options for the United States to protect Taiwan. Every scenario would include losses to the U.S. Navy should China attack. The only hope would be to communicate military to the military to reduce the damage and hope that diplomacy could create a cease-fire. 

Biden and the next U.S. president may want to re-consider protecting Taiwan without having all military options on the table first. 

The Pentagon would need to ensure that the White House knows there would be a significant price to pay in blood and treasure.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.