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Key Points: China’s DF-17 hypersonic missile, capable of speeds up to Mach 10 and reportedly demonstrating precision targeting during tests, presents a potential game-changing threat to U.S. Navy aircraft carriers.

-While precision against stationary targets has been claimed, achieving similar accuracy against moving ships remains a significant challenge.

-Nonetheless, the missile’s speed reduces the reaction window for defense systems, elevating its threat level.

-In response, the U.S. Navy is advancing multi-domain ship defenses, including enhanced electronic warfare, laser weapons, and space-based tracking systems like HBTSS.

-These technologies aim to counter hypersonic threats and maintain the Navy’s dominance despite emerging adversary capabilities.

DF-17: China’s Hypersonic ‘Carrier Killer’ Missile Analyzed

Should the People’s Republic of China’s DF-17 Hypersonic missile truly operate with the capacity to destroy aircraft carriers nearly 1,000 miles offshore with a maneuvering, precision-guided projectile able to travel at speeds up to Mach 10, there is a significant threat equation likely generating attention at the Pentagon.

DF-17 Missile: The Threat

China is known for its advanced hypersonic weapons and often writes in its government-backed newspapers about its carrier-killer anti-ship missiles, yet Mach 10 hypersonic speed and precision guidance present a different and more significant threat equation.

Building an anti-ship missile to travel at sustained hypersonic speeds certainly presents technological challenges. However, adding maneuverability and precision guidance not only requires more advanced engineering but presents a far more serious threat.

Image of DF-17 missile. Image: Creative Commons.

The exact specifics of the DF-17 may not be fully clear, and certainly, it may not operate with the performance parameters claimed in the Chinese-government-backed newspapers, yet an interesting CSIS Missile Defense Project essay maintains that the DF-17 threats are serious.

“The DF-17 has demonstrated a high degree of accuracy in testing, with one U.S. government official saying a test warhead “within meters” of its intended, stationary target. U.S. defense officials have also said the DF-ZF HGV performed “extreme maneuvers” and “evasive actions” in previous test flights,” the CSIS Missile Threat essay says.

The CSIS essay does not say how this precision is achieved per say, and maintaining maneuvering precision at hypersonic speeds is not an uncomplicated task. Yet, it would make sense that this would be against a stationary target.

DF-17 Hype vs. Reality

Maneuvering to hit targets “on the move” is altogether different, which is one reason why Pentagon weapons developers are already working on “tech-insertion” plans for now-in-development hypersonic weapons to prepare for a new generation of hypersonic projectiles able to track and destroy moving targets.

DF-17

DF-17. Image Credit: Screenshot.

“Tech insertion” would include software upgrades to existing hypersonic weapons enabling increased maneuverability against moving targets in ways that are not currently possible.  However, should the CSIS Missile Threat assessment be accurate, the DF-17 could only maneuver toward and destroy a stationary target, which presents a less significant threat to ships moving at fast speeds.

A Missile Threat to Aircraft Carriers

Nevertheless, should the CSIS Missile Threat assessment of the DF-17 be accurate, it would present a threat to US Navy surface ships and carriers of a new variety.

For example, the existing DF-26 anti-ship carrier-killer missile can travel as far as 2,000 miles to attack enemy ships (some say far more), yet it does not travel at hypersonic speeds. If an incoming missile is “not” traveling at hypersonic speeds, then multi-domain sensors, countermeasures, and layered ship defenses have a much higher probability of tracking, jamming, intercepting, or destroying the missile. Speed is without question a lethality multiplier, as it, of course, massively shortens the time window within which ship commanders can defend against the threat.

The U.S. Navy Is Getting Ready for Hypersonic Missiles

However, another tactical element of this overall equation needs to be considered: the rapid maturation of U.S. Navy ship defenses.

DF-17

Chinese DF-17 missiles. Image: Chinese internet.

Navy weapons developers have been fast-tracking several high-tech enhancements to layered ship defenses for years, including advanced EW jamming, laser weapons, more sensitive radar, and longer-range precision interceptors.

Also, the arrival of hundreds of Medium and Low Earth Orbit Satellites is improving the ability of ship and ground missile defenses to establish a “continuous” target track of an attacking missile as it transits from one radar aperture or field or regard to another. This is particularly critical in the case of hypersonics, as missiles traveling at five times the speed of sound can move so fast from one radar field to another that it is simply impossible to track them. 

Given the progress of the Pentagon’s current efforts to engineer new defenses against hypersonic weapons through satellite networking technologies such as HBTSS, the Hypersonic, and Ballistic Tracking Sensor System, this might be changing.

About the Author: Kris Osborn

Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel.