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President Trump is, for all intents and purposes, already President of the United States again. 

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Barring Biden handing over nuclear weapons to Ukraine–and yes, the administration has been discussing that possibility–the transition from one administration to the next has already happened in the eyes of the world. 

The latest examples of that have been Trump’s negotiations with the President of Mexico and Justin Trudeau’s visit to Mar-a-Lago yesterday. Scheinbaum has already bent the knee, and Justin Trudeau is presumably doing the same. 

Trump is also pushing for a hostage deal with Hamas to occur before he even returns to office, and he has the leverage to make that happen in all likelihood. Already a ceasefire with Hezbollah is on track to work, although expect some Hezbollah-linked individuals will continue to violate the agreement. And we may yet see real movement on resolving the Gaza conflict and getting the hostages back. 

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Trump is already getting Ukraine and Russia closer to a cease-fire. As expected, it is not based on dropping support for Ukraine, but for finding a modus vivendi between Russia and Ukraine. If Trump manages to get a ceasefire in place before January 20th, he will have accomplished in weeks what Biden couldn’t in three years. 

Zelenskyy has already moved on his demands for a full return of Ukraine’s territory, and Putin has expressed confidence that Trump can negotiate a deal. Anybody who thought Trump would completely abandon Ukraine will either be elated or disappointed by Trump’s position, as his goal is to get an immediate cease-fire and not to hand Ukraine over to Russia by cutting off all support.

 If you were hoping all aid to Ukraine to be cut off, prepare to be disappointed. If you feared that was what he would do, prepare to be elated. 

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In a single post, the president-elect told the world what the end of the Ukraine war might look like. And it is going to be a big diplomatic ask, to say the least.

“I am very pleased to nominate General Keith Kellogg to serve as Assistant to the President and Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social channel. “Together, we will secure PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH, and Make America, and the World, SAFE AGAIN!”

By appointing Keith Kellogg as his special envoy to Ukraine, Donald Trump has also chosen a very specific, pre-announced plan for the thorniest foreign policy issue on his plate.

Kellogg, Trump’s 80-year-old former national security advisor, has laid out his peace plan in some detail, writing for the America First policy institute in April.

It begins calling the war “an avoidable crisis that, due to the Biden Administration’s incompetent policies… has entangled America in an endless war.”

In short, a ceasefire will freeze the frontlines and both sides will be forced to the negotiating table. But it is in the longer details where it all gets complex.

As always with Trump, it is the art of the deal. 

The world appears to be done with Biden and his administration, and everyone outside the United States is coming to terms with a Trump victory and getting a head start on cutting deals with the real power in America. 

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If I were Biden, I would stand back and be glad. If Trump can get a bunch of important deals wrapped up before he leaves office, he can comfort himself that the world began healing while he remained president and try to take credit. 

Nobody will really believe he was responsible except a few Democrats, but that is better than nothing.