Is Pennsylvania the Next Swing State To Become a Solid Red State?

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Before we knew that Donal Trump would sweep the battleground states, Pennsylvania was widely considered to be 2024’s tipping point state. Not only did Trump win the state back, but longtime incumbent Democrat Sen. Bob Casey Jr. was also defeated, and many see that as a sign that Trump’s ability to appeal to a broader swath of working-class Americans put not only Pennsylvania in the red column this year but also Michigan and Wisconsin. Kamala may have won Minnesota, but it was a bit too close for comfort. 

The signs all point to a potential shift that could see Pennsylvania become the next Ohio—a midwestern swing state that becomes solid red.

“The drubbing Democrats took in Pennsylvania in this year’s election has prompted predictable vows to rebound, but it has also sowed doubts about whether Pennsylvania might be leaving the ranks of up-for-grabs swing states for a right-leaning existence more like Ohio’s,” reports the Associated Press. 

Some Pennsylvania Democrats say 2024’s losses are, at least in part, attributable to voters motivated specifically by President-elect Donald Trump. Many of those voters won’t show up if Trump isn’t on the ballot, the theory goes, leaving Pennsylvania’s status as the ultimate swing state intact.

“I don’t think it’s an indicator for Pennsylvania,” said Jamie Perrapato, executive director of Turn PA Blue, which helps organize and train campaign volunteers. “I’ll believe it when these people come out and vote in any elections but for the presidency.”

Pennsylvania’s status as the nation’s premier battleground state in 2024 was unmistakable: political campaigns dropped more money on campaign ads than in any other state, according to data from ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

Plenty of that money was spent by Democrats, but their defeat was across the board. Democrats in Pennsylvania lost its 19 presidential electoral votes, a U.S. Senate seat, three other statewide races, two congressional seats and what was once a reassuring advantage in voter registration.

For their part, Democrats aren’t going to sit back and let that happen.

Bethany Hallam, an Allegheny County council member who is part of a wave of progressive Democrats to win office around Pittsburgh in recent years, said the party can fix things before Pennsylvania becomes Ohio. But she cautioned against interpreting 2024 as a one-time blip, saying it would be a mistake to think Trump voters will never be heard from again.

“They’re going to be more empowered to keep voting more,” Hallam said. “They came out, finally exercised their votes and the person they picked won. … I don’t think this was a one-off thing.”

Daniel Hopkins, a political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania, told the AP that  Pennsylvania’s political trajectory is difficult to predict, as parties adapt to evolving dynamics. Despite Democrats’ past registration advantages in the state, Republicans have consistently been competitive statewide. According to Hopkins, Democrats should be concerned about losing ground with young and Hispanic voters to Trump.

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Pennsylvania may not become a reliably red state right away, but with conservative activist Scott Presler aggressively registering new Republican voters in the state, I feel confident it is possible. But, make no mistake about it, Democrats aren’t going to give up Pennsylvania so easily.