Could Taiwan’s F-35 Dream Become China’s Nightmare?

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Key Points: Taiwan’s potential acquisition of 60 F-35 stealth fighters for $15 billion would revolutionize its defense capabilities, creating a significant deterrent against Chinese aggression.

-However, such a move would provoke an extreme reaction from Beijing, risking heightened military tensions or even a blockade of Taiwan.

-While President-elect Donald Trump has previously urged allies to bolster their defenses, his reluctance to commit U.S. forces directly might make an F-35 sale politically risky.

-Before making such a move, the Trump administration must navigate delicate diplomacy with China to avoid triggering a regional crisis.

What If Taiwan Bought Sixty F-35s?

It would be a dream for Taiwan and a nightmare for China. I’m talking about whether Taiwan could acquire several squadrons of F-35s someday. If Taiwan someday flew this advanced stealth fighter, it would upset the balance of power between Taipei and Beijing and make the Chinese apoplectic. Reports from Western media outlets reveal that Taiwan is ready to sink ample funds into acquiring the F-35 in large numbers. 

The Financial Times has indicated that Taiwan is ready to spend $15 billion on 60 F-35 stealth jets, including “four Advanced Hawkeyes, ten retired warships, and 400 Patriot missiles.”

Could F-35s for Taiwan Happen?

It would be fascinating to see Taiwan get the arms package approved by the U.S. State Department. Senator Marco Rubio is the new nominee to become Secretary of State and the Florida lawmaker is thought to be aggressive against China. He and the new Secretary of Defense will be painfully aware that China has designed to annex Taiwan by 2027. This would likely mean a blockade and quarantine followed by a full-fledged invasion of the island. Taiwan has realized that it needs to become more aggressive in defending its homeland. The invasion could be imminent within the next four to five years.

What Will Trump Do About China and Taiwan?

Taiwan will also be working with President-elect Donald Trump, his new National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and whoever the new Secretary of Defense nominee is. This will be one of Trump’s most consequential strategic questions – whether to outright defend Taiwan militarily if China blockades or attacks the island. Trump has said in the past that Taipei must spend more on defense. This F-35 deal would be a significant step for Taiwan.

Xi Jinping Would Be Furious

However, Xi Jinping would consider the F-35 deal a massive threat to his country. Xi would likely order mass military exercises surrounding Taiwan as he has done. China will never stand for Taiwan receiving F-35s. It would be a highly controversial action that is sure to provoke a response.

As a result, the Trump administration may decide to refrain from selling the F-35 to Taiwan. This future fight between China and Taiwan is expected to include ballistic missiles and Taiwan needs better missile defenses. That’s why Taipei is also interested in the Aegis Ashore combat system that could protect against a large flight of Chinese missiles.

Trump, in the past, has been reticent to fully commit the United States to full protection of a Chinese blockade or attack against Taiwan.

An F-35 Lightning II flies at the Blue Angels Homecoming Air Show at Naval Air Station Pensacola, Florida, Nov. 11, 2022. The NAS Pensacola Blue Angels Homecoming Air Show is one of Pensacola’s largest events, attracting 150,000-180,000 spectators during the two-day event. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Trenten Walters)

“Taiwan doesn’t give us anything. Taiwan is 9,500 miles away. It’s 68 miles away from China. A slight advantage, and China’s a massive piece of land, they could just bombard it. They don’t even need to – I mean, they can literally just send shells. Now they don’t want to do that because they don’t want to lose all those chip plants,” Trump told Bloomberg this summer.

Risking U.S. Blood and Treasure to Defend Taiwan

Trump has a habit of warning allies to spend more on defense and prepare to forge ahead without the U.S. military putting soldiers, sailors, airmen, or marines in harm’s way. He doesn’t like to promise combat operations, and he was elected on the premise that he would start no new wars. This means allies must step up and provide for their defense. However, this could mean the U.S. defense industry could send more arms to the Taiwanese.

Sending F-35s to Taiwan would be unwise at this time. Trump still needs to be inaugurated. He needs to speak to Xi Jinping directly before Taiwan can take such a drastic step. There is no way the Chinese would accept Taiwan getting F-35s without some type of adverse reaction. It could cause Beijing to instigate a blockade that would destroy Taiwan’s economy. 

Thus, F-35s will have to wait. Give Trump a chance to put his national security team together thoroughly and allow him to converse with Xi Jinping before sending F-35s to China. These fighters in Taiwan’s hands would send Beijing into a tizzy and place the Trump administration into a difficult situation as it ponders a new defense strategy in the Indo-Pacific. 

Taiwan would love the stealth fighters, but China would hate their deployment. It is better to wait on that type of provocative arms sale until Trump is ready to deal with China directly.  

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.