Emerson Poll: Trump Jumps, 2028 Already in Play

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A new Emerson poll has been released, and it shows, among other things, a significant approval bump for President-elect Donald Trump (still not tired of typing that) and also for his cabinet picks. Some other data in this survey is, to put it mildly, interesting – and baffling.

First, the incoming Trump administration numbers:

The first post-election Emerson College poll finds President-elect Donald Trump’s favorability rating at 54%, a six-point increase from his pre-election favorability of 48%. President Joe Biden has a 36% job approval rating, a four-year low for the president in Emerson polls, while his disapproval rating remains steady at 52%.

“Trump’s favorability varies significantly by gender, race, and age,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Trump’s strongest age cohort is among voters 40-59, with 60% viewing him favorably, compared to 48% among those over 70. Notably, his favorability has risen among younger voters, with 55% of those under 30 expressing a favorable opinion.”

Men view Trump most favorably at 61%, compared to 48% of women.

59% of white voters view Trump favorably, along with 53% of Hispanic voters, and 28% of Black voters.

This would appear to align with the pre-election numbers, although Trump’s favorability ratings overall have jumped. That’s not unusual, post-election, once the mud-slinging of the campaign is over, and in the brief interval before the mud-slinging of business as usual begins.

For the 2028 elections, Republicans overwhelmingly favor JD Vance as their candidate, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis coming in a distant second. Democrats favor Kamala Harris – let’s hope they never learn their lesson – followed at some distance by California Governor Gavin Newsom.

The President-elect’s cabinet picks are generally approved of as well.

Voters were asked if they support or oppose Trump’s cabinet nominations:

Marco Rubio (Secretary of State nomination) 45% support, 32% oppose

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Health and Human Services Secretary nomination) 47% support, 40% oppose

Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence nomination) 40% support, 33% oppose

Dr. Mehmet Oz (Medicare and Medicaid Administrator nomination) 41% support, 37% oppose

A few other key issues:

In response to the question, “What do you think is the most important issue facing the United States,” economy and immigration dominated the replies. While the cabinet picks listed above were largely positive, the results for Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard were more evenly divided, with Hegseth coming in at 20.9 percent “strongly support” and 15.7 percent “somewhat support” as opposed to 24.9 percent “strongly oppose” and 28.9 percent “no opinion/unsure.” Tulsi Gabbard had similar results, with 22.6 percent “strongly support” and 17 percent “somewhat support,” and 25 percent “strongly oppose” and 27.3 percent “no opinion/unsure.”

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But here’s where it gets… interesting.

A plurality of registered voters, 39%, believe there will be another World War, while 26% do not think there will be another World War. Thirty-five percent are not sure.

46% of Harris voters believe another world war is likely, compared to 33% of Trump voters.

Well, it’s probably likely that there will be another global war – eventually. But what the question doesn’t appear to address is “when.” The question merely asks, “Do you think there will be another World War?” Were I asked that, I would reply, “Yes,” but it may happen next year – or it may happen in two hundred years. But the split by party is interesting; could it be that Democrats are self-aware enough to see that Joe Biden is near to stumbling us into a conflict with Russia?

Then, aliens:

Thirty-seven percent of voters believe aliens have visited the Earth, a 12-point increase from 2022. Thirty-six percent do not believe aliens have visited the Earth, down from 39% in 2022.

41% of Trump voters believe Earth has been visited by aliens, compared to 32% of Harris voters.

Again, the question is simply: “Do you think that Earth has been visited by aliens?” There is no evidence of any recent visits by extraterrestrial intelligence, but again, the question not asked is “when.” It would be more interesting to ask “Do you think that Earth has been recently visited by aliens?” Any such visit, say, in the Silurian, would certainly leave no traces today.

You can view all the results of this poll here.