The Looming MAGA War Between JD Vance and Ron DeSantis: The First Move Is

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They’re the two hardest hitting heavyweights on the Republican bench. You can almost sense them eyeing each other from afar, apprising one another “just in case.” Because, in full-contact politics, “just in case” will be here sooner than you think.

In one corner, at the tender age of 40, is JD Vance. He’s a military veteran who was deployed in Iraq, graduated from Yale, has three children, and had a meteoric rise to the top of the ranks of the GOP.

In the other corner, at the tender age of 46, is Ron DeSantis. He’s a military veteran who was deployed in Iraq, graduated from Yale, has three children, and had a meteoric rise to the top of the ranks of the GOP.

But despite their surface-level similarities, the two are starkly different people.

Right now, President-elect Trump is the undisputed master of MAGAtropolis. He runs the kingdom; the throne is his. But four years from now?

Well, it won’t be the meek who inherits the earth.

Instead, it’ll almost certainly be a military veteran who was deployed in Iraq, graduated from Yale, has three children, and had a meteoric rise to the top of the ranks of the GOP.

But which?

It’s a story that’ll be lurking in the murky background throughout 2025 (and beyond). But “palace intrigue” is a manic media magnet; with Trump term-limited and unable to run again, it’s only natural that every speech, photo-op, and trip to New Hampshire and/or Iowa by Vance and DeSantis will be exhaustively scrutinized.

Vance and DeSantis aren’t the only two contenders, of course. There are still the pre-Trump stalwarts who sought the brass ring in 2016 — Sen. Cruz (R-Tex.) and Sen. Rubio (R-Fla.) — plus new breed, post-Trump politicians like Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-Va.). And there’ll surely be a handful of political outsiders, a la Vivek Ramaswamy, who are emboldened by Trump’s personal example.

That’s the one thing we know for sure: From longshots to very-longshots to VERY-very-longshots, there won’t be a shortage of GOP presidential candidates.

There never are.

But two names loom far larger than all the rest: Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, and Ohio Senator JD Vance, our next vice president.

The Trump administration is borrowing heavily from Florida. An unusually large number of cabinet members will be coming from the Sunshine State: The president, plus his chief of staff, his secretary of state, and his national security advisor. Trump’s original nominee for attorney general — Matt Gaetz — was a Floridian, as is Pam Biondi, the replacement nominee.

When Rubio is confirmed secretary of state, Gov. DeSantis will choose his replacement. Pay close attention, because it’s likely to be the first chess move of the 2028 GOP presidential race. Who DeSantis chooses — and who he snubs — will speak volumes.

If DeSantis taps Lara Trump, it almost certainly means he’s making a move for the GOP nomination. Although DeSantis is still well-regarded by MAGA Nation, his “disloyalty” in running against the man who made his career hasn’t been forgotten.

Naming Lara Trump the next senator would be a helluva way to make amends.

Meanwhile, JD Vance would seem to have the insider’s track to the 2028 GOP nomination. After all, who better than the vice president to be MAGA’s heir apparent? But that inside track could ultimately be illusionary.

First of all, the V.P. is a powerless position. It makes the officeholder look weak and subservient: Kamala Harris never truly shook the stigma of being Biden’s lackey. And thus, she never emerged as a plausible, credible leader.

There’s no guarantee that Vance will exit the vice presidency looking strong and inspirational. Few do.

Second, Trump might not even endorse Vance. Traditionally, presidents have refrained from endorsing their veeps during the primaries: Reagan didn’t do it for Bush in 1988, and Obama didn’t do it for Biden in 2020.

But Biden certainly endorsed Harris, and Trump has never been beholden to tradition. If the MAGAfather wants to put his thumb on the scale, he will. And how motivated he is to intervene will likely depend on how he feels about the other candidates.

As a consequence of Trump stocking his cabinet with so much Florida talent, DeSantis has never stood larger, stronger, or more dominant in Florida GOP circles. With the local ranks depleted, DeSantis only grows larger in stature.

If his failed 2024 campaign has soured him on presidential politics, maybe DeSantis will reward a loyal soldier and/or donor and give him or her Rubio’s seat. Or maybe he’ll nominate himself. A senate seat is a VERY valuable commodity. (People will even pay money for it!) A smart, forward-thinking politician like DeSantis will surely consider all the possibilities — and then choose a path that maximizes the political payoff.

After all, that’s what smart politicians do.

If Lara Trump is the choice, invest in mouthguards and heavy bags: DeSantis will be back in 2028, stampeding towards a heavyweight showdown with the V.P.-elect.

(May the best military veteran who was deployed in Iraq, graduated from Yale, has three children, and had a meteoric rise to the top of the ranks of the GOP win.)