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Did China and Russia combine to sabotage European telecoms in retaliation over the war in Ukraine? Or did the Yi Peng 3 just show up at the right place and the wrong time?

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No one knows for sure, but the Danish Navy doesn’t believe in coincidences. They chased down the Chinese-flagged vessel all the way to just outside of Danish waters, according to Visegrad 24, which also reports that the Danes boarded the vessel: 

Did the Danish Navy board Yi Peng 3? That would escalate into a potential act of war in an already fraught situation, especially if the ship remained outside of Danish waters. Newsweek confirms the chase but says nothing about anyone boarding the vessel yet:

The Yi Peng 3 had passed close to both cables around the time each was cut on Sunday and Monday, according to maritime tracking group Marine Traffic. The vessel was then followed by the Danish Navy, according to open-source intelligence analysts.

“Ship suspected of damaging comms cables x 2 in Baltic Sea has been detained by Danish Navy,” posted OSINT account auonsson on Bluesky, which tracks vessels in the Baltic. The post said that it was “anchored just outside Danish territory with patrol/dive Y311 SØLØVEN vessel guarding her.”

“Frigate HDMS HVIDBJØRNEN might be present too (no AIS but made speed toward situation.)” the post added. 

“The Danish Defence can confirm that we are present in the area near the Chinese ship Yi Peng 3. The Danish Defence currently has no further comments,” Denmark’s military said in a post on X[.]

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Reuters has a little more, but also nothing about boarding the vessel. Other media outlets report that the Danes have the ship “under surveillance” but not captured, although they may not be giving the Yi Peng 3 much room to maneuver at the moment.

How did the ship get identified so quickly? Other ships were in the same area at the same time, but the Swedes believe that only the Yi Peng 3 matched the movements and timing of the sabotage:

It is quite rare for Denmark’s military to comment publicly on individual vessels travelling in Danish waters. It did not mention the cable breaches or say why it was staying with the ship.

   The Chinese ship left the Russian port of Ust-Luga on Nov. 15 and was in the areas where the cable damages occurred, according to traffic data, which showed other ships to have been in the areas too. …

Swedish Civil Defence Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin told Reuters on Tuesday that the country’s armed forces and coastguard had picked up ship movements that corresponded with the interruption of two telecoms cables in the Baltic Sea.

The alleged attacks took place in Swedish waters, so they are conducting the primary investigation into the matter. Authorities there and in Finland and Germany insist that the two breaks could not have happened accidentally. The US had warned that Moscow would escalate its attacks on “critical undersea infrastructure” a few weeks ago, which makes this seem even more suspicious.

Oddly, though, CNN now reports that US officials are pouring some cold water on the idea that this was an actual attack:

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But two US officials familiar with the initial assessment of the incident told CNN on Tuesday the damage was not believed to be deliberate activity by Russia or any other nation.

Instead, the two officials told CNN they believed it likely caused by an anchor drag from a passing vessel. Such accidents have happened in the past, although not in a quick succession like the two on Sunday and Monday.

Hmmmm. Why would the US warn of precisely this kind of attack, and then scoff when such damage mysteriously emerges — twice within 24 hours? Both Russia and China deny having anything to do with it, and maybe the Biden administration wants to de-escalate the situation. Then again, they just gave Ukraine permission to use American long-range ATACMS missiles on targets in Russia, along with a lot of the kind of anti-personnel mines that Joe Biden had campaigned to eliminate earlier. De-escalation in Europe does not appear to be an administration priority at the moment. 

This could just be two accidental breaks in coincidental timing and proximity, I suppose. But I don’t much believe in coincidences, not any more than the Danes do.