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Many readers objected to a post several weeks back suggesting that for effective purposes, World War III is underway, with Russia-Iran-North Korea and their various proxies forming the new Axis Powers. Some news items from today:
• Israel Finds Large Troves of Russian Arms in Hezbollah’s Hands
TEL AVIV—As Israel advances its invasion of southern Lebanon, its troops are finding large troves of Russian weapons, confirming longstanding suspicions in Israel that Hezbollah is enhancing its fighting capacity with the help of sophisticated Russian arms.
I doubt Hezbollah they acquired them from WalMart—that is, without Russian cooperation and approval.
• It didn’t take Ukraine long to act on President Biden’s permission to use U.S.-supplied missiles to attack inside Russia:
Ukraine Uses U.S.-Provided Long-Range Missiles in Russia for First Time
KYIV, Ukraine—Ukraine fired long-range missiles provided by the U.S. into Russia for the first time Tuesday, posing a test for Russian President Vladimir Putin after Moscow’s threats to retaliate for such a move.
Ukraine used the Army Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS, to strike an ammunition storage facility in Russia’s Bryansk region, a Ukrainian official said. The strike came just days after President Biden gave approval for their use.
“This is a signal that they want escalation,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in response to the attack on Tuesday, describing it as a new phase in the war.
Russia has warned for months that use of such long range missiles against its territory would amount to an attack by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and lead to a clear response.
One way to think about this is that Biden should have given permission to do this two years ago, but was rightly fearful of escalation—perhaps nuclear—from Russia. This kind of belated permissions doesn’t exactly speak confidence.
It also means that Trump’s phone call to Putin demanding that Russia not escalate further had little effect.
Meanwhile, Ukranians are war-weary:
• Iran Sharply Expands Stockpile of Nuclear Fuel Ahead of Trump’s Return
VIENNA—Iran sharply increased its stockpile of nearly weapons-grade uranium amid its confrontation with Israel, according to the United Nations atomic-energy agency, in a challenge to the incoming Trump administration.
Iran’s decision to expand its stockpile of nuclear fuel and its failure to fully cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the IAEA, which monitors Tehran’s work, is set to trigger fresh diplomatic pressure from Europe.
Oh no! Not diplomatic pressure from Europe! Why even John Kerry might scowl at the mullahs!
• On the other hand:
Iran Told U.S. It Wouldn’t Try to Kill Trump
Iran offered written assurances to the Biden administration last month that it wouldn’t seek to kill Donald Trump, U.S. officials said, a secret exchange meant to cool tensions between Tehran and Washington—as the Republican prepares for his White House return.
Good. Though I wouldn’t trust any piece of paper with an Iranian government signature.