Tight Races Remain in California With Hundreds of Thousands of Ballots Left

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Some state seats flipped from blue to red, while a congressional seat is a tossup with fewer than 500 votes separating candidates.

Some election results are still too close to call in California two weeks after ballots were cast, with more than 570,000 votes left to count, and another 126,000 to cure as of Nov. 19, according to secretary of state data.

The race for the U.S. House of Representatives in the state’s 45th district—encompassing parts of Los Angeles, is one of the two closest.

Incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.) currently trails Democrat challenger Derek Tran by 314 votes out of nearly 310,000 counted, as of the latest update Thursday evening.

In another tight congressional race, Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) maintains a slight edge of 227 votes over Democrat Adam Gray in a rematch from 2022 to represent the 13th district in the state’s Central Valley.

Democrat Dave Min, a former assemblyman who resigned to run for Congress, holds a nearly 10,000 vote advantage over Republican Scott Baugh in the 47th district located in Orange County. The lead changed hands multiple times since Election Day, with Min pulling ahead in recent updates.

Republicans, however, are poised to retain control of the House of Representatives while also securing a majority in the Senate, giving the party a political trifecta for President-elect Donald Trump’s second term.

In the California state Legislature, Democrats will maintain their supermajority in both chambers, though Republicans are on the verge of flipping some seats.

The GOP could claim the 37th district—representing parts of central Orange County, including Irvine, Orange, Santa Ana, and other cities—which would give the party a 10th seat in the 40-member state Senate.

Republican Steven Choi leads incumbent Democrat Sen. Josh Newman by nearly 7,000 votes out of almost 450,000 cast, or 1.4 percentage points.

Another close race in the Senate pits two Democrats, Michelle Chambers and Laura Richardson, against each other for the state’s 35th district seat—left vacant after Sen. Steven Bradford termed out.

Chambers leads by fewer than 3,000, earning 50.6 percent of the vote in the district representing parts of Los Angeles County.

Two seats are potentially poised to flip from blue to red in the Assembly.

The state’s 58th Assembly district, representing parts of Riverside and San Bernardino counties, is coming down to the wire with fewer than 500 votes separating the two candidates.

Leticia Castillo, a Republican psychotherapist, has 50.2 percent of the vote to 49.8 percent for Democrat Clarissa Cervantes, the sister of incumbent Assemblywoman Sabrina Cervantes—who is leading in her own race for a state Senate seat.

Republican businessman and Marine Corps veteran Republican Jeff Gonzalez claimed victory on Nov. 18 in the race for the 36th district—made up of Imperial County and parts of Riverside and San Bernardino counties in the southern part of the state.

“As your Assemblyman, I will fight for each and every one of you—no matter your party,” he wrote on X. “To those whose support I earned, I’m honored. To those whose support I did not earn, I will work every day to represent you.”

Gonzalez leads by nearly 4,000 votes with 51. 6 percent of the electorate’s support.

His challenger, Democrat Joey Acuña, conceded with a statement posted Nov. 18 on social media.

“Although many ballots remain to be counted, it’s clear that this election didn’t go our way,” he wrote. “I congratulate Jeff Gonzalez and wish him all the best in representing Assembly District 36.”

The lead has flipped back and forth in District 47—in the Palm Springs area and parts of Riverside and San Bernardino counties—but incumbent Republican Greg Wallis is on pace to keep his seat, with a lead of slightly more than 2 percentage points, or nearly 5,000 votes over his opponent, Democrat Christy Holstege.

Wallis beat the same challenger in 2022 by 85 votes, breaking a decade-long streak of Democrat wins in the district.

If the vote totals hold, the Assembly will reside in the hands of Democrats 60–19, with one seat vacant after Rep. Vince Fong (R-Calif.) ran for Congress in a special election in the spring to replace former House Speaker Rep. Kevin McCarthy.

As Fong was on the ballot for state and federal elections this year and is set to win both races, his Assembly seat will remain empty until he can formally resign after his House of Representatives position is reelection is certified.

At that point, Gov. Gavin Newsom is required by law to call a special election next year.

On the national stage, Vice President Kamala Harris is carrying 58.7 percent of the vote for president versus Trump’s 38.1 percent, leading him by more than 3 million votes out of approximately 15 million cast. President Joe Biden earned 63.5 percent to beat Trump by more than 5 million votes in 2020.

Ballot Measures

Voters considered 10 ballot measures, and all but two are seemingly decided with wide margins separating the two sides. These include likely victories for a proposition that will strengthen penalties for repeat offenders of some crimes, and two bond measures aimed at raising money for schools and natural emergency preparedness, among others. A rent control proposal that would have prevented the state from limiting local regulations is losing by more than 20 percent.

The future of Proposition 32—which would raise the minimum wage to $18 an hour—is more uncertain, as it is failing by fewer than 250,000 votes.

A proposal to restrict how certain organizations invest revenues generated from prescription drug district programs—Proposition 35—is winning by about 215,000 votes.

Vote totals are subject to change in the coming days as more ballots are counted and others that need processing due to signature verification audits, and other challenges, are reviewed.

County officials statewide have until Dec. 5 to certify elections at local levels, and Secretary of State Shirley Weber will certify all results by the Dec. 13 deadline.