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Finally: Decision Desk HQ has called the winner of the Alaska at-large House of Representatives election, projecting Republican Nick Begich III to win. As of this writing, the vote count is 152,545 votes for Begich and 143,370 for Democrat Mary Peltola. 

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Congressman-elect Begich comes from an old Alaska political family. His grandfather, Nicholas Joseph Begich Sr., held Alaska’s at-large House seat as a Democrat in 1971 and 1972 until he disappeared during a night flight from Anchorage to Juneau; the aircraft and passengers were never found, and the senior Begich was declared dead in absentia in December of 1972. Republican Don Young replaced the senior Begich in the at-large House seat, holding it until his death when he was replaced by Democrat Mary Peltola. Now, another Begich will be holding that seat – this one a conservative Republican. 

On Wednesday, the Alaska news site Must Read Alaska called the race for Nick Begich III based on a data dump of ranked-choice voting.

With possibly 20,000 more votes yet to be counted, Peltola would have to win by a margin of over 10,000 to overcome Begich’s lead. This is not what the trends are indicating; instead, they show that Begich unseats Peltola in Congress.

The ballots counted Tuesday include a mix of absentee ballots, early voting, and questioned ballots.

The Division of Elections, however, will have the final word since this privately done analysis of the raw data may have errors. The division released the raw data to the public after Must Read Alaska filed a public records request. The division will not run its analysis and announce the final winner until Nov. 20, making Alaska the last state in the nation to announce results.

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Interestingly, the senior Begich’s opponent in the 1970 House election was Republican Frank Murkowski, who later was elected Senator, then was elected Governor, at which point he awarded the then-vacant Senate seat like a feudal title to his daughter, Lisa Murkowski, who holds that seat to this day.

Alaska politics can be a little strange at times. We are, by and large, a red state, but the state’s capitol of Juneau is Democrat-dominated, while the cities of Anchorage and Fairbanks are Democrat-leaning. The strongly Republican Matanuska-Susitna Borough, which includes the cities of Palmer and Wasilla, serves as a counterweight, as does the conservative but sparsely populated east-central part of the state, which includes the towns of Tok and Delta Junction. Alaska’s political right, though, is leavened with a strong libertarian streak. Alaskans are some of the most “mind your own business and leave me alone” folks you’re liable to find.

Last January, I spoke with Nick Begich III about his Congressional ambitions, his family’s political background, and his unflinching support for President-elect Donald Trump.

See Related: Interview: Alaska’s Nick Begich III – About Alaska, the House, and Our Path Forward

Democrat Mary Peltola, while winning the special House election as well as her first full term under the ranked-choice voting scheme, has increasingly been identified with the far left of the Democratic Party, which may have contributed to her defeat. If the Decision Desk HQ call is accurate, then Mary Peltola has our best wishes; may she return to her home in Bethel and have a long, happy life surrounded by her family – and far away from politics. 

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Speaking personally, as an Alaskan and as a conservative with a wide libertarian streak myself, I will be glad to see Alaska represented by Nick Begich III in the House of Representatives.

See Related: Alaska’s Mary Peltola Signs on With Far-Left MoveOn.org: Watch What Your Local Pols Are Up To!

In other news, Alaskan’s Ballot Measure 2, the repeal of the ranked-choice voting scheme, is currently narrowly ahead, with 152,915 Yes votes (a Yes vote being a vote to repeal and return to traditional closed primaries) to 151,239 No votes. We’ll bring you the news when that vote is finally decided.