Fight Night Part II: UFC 309 Best Bets Featuring Jon Jones Vs. Stipe Miocic

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It’s a great weekend for sports when there are back-to-back Fight Nights. The UFC tries to make up for the Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson dud with UFC 309 at Madison Square Garden Saturday, November 16. The prelims start at 8 p.m. ET with the main card beginning at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view available through ESPN+.

This is combat sports ecstasy for me. We go from the Baddest Man on the Planet to the 🐐 of MMA when Jon Jones puts his UFC Heavyweight title on the line vs. Stipe Miocic. Tyson is my favorite athlete ever and Jones is one of my top five favorite prizefighters. The co-main event is a rematch between Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler.

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For what it’s worth, I have a five-event winning streak betting on the UFC. As I always write before previewing these UFC cards, I’m a casual fan who parachutes into these marquee pay-per-views. Meaning, take my UFC betting analysis with a grain of salt. I’ve researched these matchups, but I’m still a novice.

UFC 309 Main Card Betting Card

The odds are courtesy of DraftKings as of Saturday, November 15.

UFC Heavyweight Title Fight: (C) Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic

The greatest MMA fighter ever, Jones (27-1), defends the heavyweight strap for the first time since beating Ciryl Gane to win the title at UFC 285 in 2023. Miocic (20-4) became a full-time firefighter and paramedic in 2022. This is his first fight since losing the heavyweight belt to Francis Ngannou at UFC 260 in 2021.

Miocic is the eighth-ranked fighter in the UFC’s heavyweight division because he is busy fighting fires instead of humans. With that in mind, Miocic is probably taking a big payday while Jones tunes up for interim champion Tom Aspinall to become the undisputed UFC Heavyweight champ next year. Jones is -625 at DraftKing as of noon ET Saturday.

Since I’m damn sure not betting Miocic, I have to bet a “Method of Victory” by Jones for a better payout. I’m going with “Jon Jones to win by decision” (+400) at DraftKings because he hasn’t knocked anyone out since Alexander Gustafsson at UFC 232 in 2018. Seven of Jones’ previous nine wins have come by decision.

Also, both fighters will be patient early to figure out their opponent’s strategy. Miocic has never won or lost by submission, and he is not as good of a wrestler, so he won’t be grappling much. Jones will go with a conservative game plan because he knows Aspinall will be studying for their future mega-fight.

BET 0.5 units (u) on Jon Jones to win by decision (+400)

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Lightweight Bout: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler

Oliveira (34-10) lost a UFC lightweight title eliminator match vs. the No. 1 contender in the division, Arman Tsarukyan, at UFC 300 in April. Chandler (23-8) was originally supposed to fight Conor McGregor at UFC 303, but McGregor pulled out with an injury. Oliveira beat Chandler by TKO for the vacant lightweight title at UFC 262 in 2021.

Their rematch is a five-round co-main event, and I’m betting Chandler tries to out-point Oliveira. Whether Chandler is successful with that strategy is a separate conversation. However, Oliveira has already beaten him with strikes, so Chandler will “pick his spots” instead of pushing the fight early.

Furthermore, Oliveira has 21 victories by submission and Chandler has seven submissions in his career, and has only tapped out once. Hence, both could grapple and try to get this fight to the ground. Either way, I’m betting Oliveira-Chandler goes into the “championship rounds”.

BET 1.1u on OVER 1.5 rounds (-110)

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Middleweight Fight: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig

Two of Nickal’s (6-0) three wins in the UFC have come by submission and 15 of Craig’s (17-8-1) 26 career MMA fights have ended with someone tapping. Granted, Craig has won via submission 13 times, but Nickal is out of his league. He is one of the most decorated wrestlers to fight in the UFC and the future of the middleweight division.

Craig is outside the top 15 of the middleweight division because he has lost four of his last five fights. Nickal will beat Craig, it’s just a matter of when and how. I’m picking “Bo Nickal to win by submission” (+175). Craig would prefer to take this fight to the mat because he is 4-5 in fights decided by TKO/KO.

More importantly, Nickal’s ground game is superior. I.e. this match feels like Bret The Hitman Hart wrestling the Brooklyn Brawler in the WWF on Saturday mornings. We know Bret will make the Brooklyn Brawler tap with the sharpshooter.

BET 0.5u on Bo Nickal to win by submission (+175)

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Women’s Flyweight Bout: Viviane Araújo vs. Karine Silva

This is a step-up in competition for Silva (18-4), who is fighting her fifth bout in the UFC, while Araújo (12-6) is fighting for her 11th time in the Octagon. Silva hasn’t fought a current women’s flyweight fighter inside the top 15 of the division. Three of Araújo’s last four fights have been vs. the fifth-, 10th-, and second-ranked women flyweights.

Four of Silva’s past five wins have come via submission. But, both women are black belts in Jiu-Jitsu and Araújo has never tapped out. Since knocking out her opponent in her UFC debut, Araújo has gone to the judges’ scorecards in 10 straight fights. She can win this fight by out-pointing Silva: Araújo lands 4.1 significant strikes per minute compared to Silva’s 2.7 mark.