2024 Emirates NBA Cup Best Bets Friday: Heat-Pacers, Lakers-Spurs, Timberwolves-Kings, 1 Player Prop

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The 2024 Emirates NBA Cup resumes Friday with 12 group-play games with the main event being LeBron James‘ Los Angeles Lakers vs. Victor Wembanyama‘s San Antonio Spurs. Between this NBA slate and Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson Netflix, I have a date with a six-pack and my couch Friday. 

Plus, I need to win my money back after a dogs*t 1-3 performance in the NBA Wednesday. One of my picks, the Detroit Pistons +6.5, blew an 18-point lead to lose by seven to the Milwaukee Bucks in overtime. Then the Lakers gave up a 15-point lead and were up eight with 24 seconds left, but couldn’t cover as -6.5 favorites in a 128-123 win over the Memphis Grizzlies. 

These “Right Reads, Wrong Results” bets going against me are enough to talk myself into thinking I can win betting on the NBA. Can I? Yes, I have. Will I survive this regular season muddied by load management and random 3-point variance? I don’t know. Either way, I’m going down swinging. 

NBA Picks for Friday, November 15

• Miami Heat +5 (-115) vs. Indiana Pacers at FanDuel, risking 1.15 units (u).
• Brooklyn Nets SG Cam Thomas UNDER 23.5 points (-122), risking 0.92u.
• San Antonio Spurs +3.5 (-110) vs. Los Angeles Lakers at Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.1u.
• Minnesota Timberwolves -125 moneyline vs. Sacramento Kings at DraftKings, risking 1.25u.

Heat (+5) at Pacers, 7 p.m. ET

Indiana opened as -3.5 favorites, and it got as low as -2.5 when the market thought there was a chance Miami All-Star Jimmy Butler would return from his two-game hiatus. Now that Butler has been ruled out, the Pacers are -4.5/-5 favorites. Well, I’m fading the line movement for a few reasons. 

First, if you look at my 2024-25 NBA betting stats at the bottom of this article, you’ll see that my bets are getting +2.3 “CLV”, or “Closing Line Value”. This means that the odds move in my favor after I place my bet, which professional bettors consider a good thing. But, my return on investment is -13%, so CLV hasn’t done me any good this season. 

Second, there’s a chance the Heat won’t miss Butler much, at least for this matchup. Butler has an -11.9 on/off net rating this season because he takes too many inefficient mid-range jumpers and Miami replaces Butler with 3-point shooters when he is out. Without Butler bogging things down, the ball should move better in the Heat’s offense.

Hopefully, Miami runs things through SG Tyler Herro Friday, because Indiana has one of the worst defensive backcourts in the NBA. Herro is scoring 24.9 points per game (PPG) on 50.9% shooting, 47.9% from 3-point range, and throwing 5.3 assists per game. Those are all career bests for Herro. 

Lastly, the Heat will be motivated following an embarrassing 123-121 overtime loss to the Pistons in their last time out. Detroit C Jalen Duren scored on an alley-oop off an inbound play with one second remaining to tie the game. The Pistons won because Miami coach Erik Spoelstra got a technical foul for calling a timeout he didn’t have. 

Essentially, I’m banking on the Heat playing their a** off after that heartbreaking loss. 

Prediction: Miami 118, Indiana 114 

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Player Prop in Nets at Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET

Brooklyn SG Cam Thomas is out here chuckin’. Thomas is taking a team-high 18.0 shots per game and has the 15th-highest usage rate in the NBA. He has a higher usage rate than Knicks PG Jalen Brunson and C Karl-Anthony Town, Nikola Jokić, and LeBron James. If there were any Nets fans in the world (there aren’t), I’d feel bad for them. 

Nonetheless, New York has three lockdown on-ball defenders to throw at Thomas: Forwards Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, and OG Anunoby. Bridges, Hart, and OG will have shifts defending Thomas since he is a big part of Brooklyn’s offense. New York allows the third-fewest PPG to opposing shooting guards. 

Finally, after a hot start, Thomas is starting to cool off now that teams see he is the focal point of Brooklyn’s offense. Thomas scored 24+ points in five of his first six games this season. He has scored 22 or fewer points in five of his last six since. 

Best Bet: Brooklyn SG Cameron Thomas UNDER 23.5 points 

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Lakers at Spurs (+3.5), 7:30 p.m. ET

I like this matchup for the Spurs, especially at home, because they negate LA’s biggest strength: Getting to the charity stripe. According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), the Lakers lead the NBA in offensive free-throw attempt rate and the Spurs are first in keeping opponents off the foul line. 

San Antonio has a strong defensive identity. Wembanyama is the best defensive player in basketball, they have long athletes on the wing (SG Stephon Castle, PF Harrison Barnes, and SF Julian Champagnie), and a nine-time All-Defensive point guard handling the perimeter (Chris Paul). 

The Lakers won two of their three meetings with the Spurs last season. But, San Antonio covered all three by an average of 8.2 PPG vs. the spread without Castle, Barnes, and CP3, and Wembanyama was a rookie. Also, Spurs SG Devin Vassell, their second-leading scorer last season, made his 2024-25 debut three games ago. 

These teams are similar in that they both play like sh*t on the road and are awesome at home. The Lakers are 1-4 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) on the road with a -10.9 spread margin. The Spurs are 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS at home. Their home vs. road field goal rates are 49.2-43.3% and their home vs. road 3-point percentage is 38.4-31.8%.  

Prediction: San Antonio 116, Lakers 111 

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Kings at Timberwolves (-2.5), 10 p.m. ET

As -1 road favorites, the T-Wolves beat the Kings 117-115 in Sacramento in both teams’ season opener. Usually, I’d bet the Kings here, but their season-leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan, averaging 22.9 PPG, is unlikely to play Friday. DeRozan scored a team-high 26 points and went 12-for-14 from the foul line in Sactown’s win vs. Minnesota last month. 

In fact, Timberwolves-Kings Part I was close only because Sacramento shot more than double the free throws (35-17). The T-Wolves hit nine more 3-pointers (20-11), grabbed four more rebounds (42-38), and had the two best players on the floor, Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle, who scored 32 and 33 points, respectively. 

DeRozan’s best skill is getting to the free-throw line, and he has a +5.0 on/off net rating. So, between DeMar’s probable absence, Minnesota’s full bill of health, and the Timberwolves being pissed about losing three straight, including back-to-back losses to the awful Portland Trail Blazers, they should blast the Kings Friday. Or at least I’m betting on that. 

Prediction: Minnesota 115, Sacramento 109

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.