NFL Week 11 Betting Picks From Analyst Who Is 15-5 Over Past Four Weeks

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Well, I am officially on an NFL heater! After a rough start to the season, we’ve turned it around completely, going 15-5 over the past four weeks. 

Hopefully, we can keep the good times rolling into Week 11…

Week 10 NFL Betting Picks (4-1)

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 41.5 ✅

San Francisco (-5.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers ❌

New Orleans Saints (+4) over Atlanta Falcons ✅

Arizona Cardinals (+0.5) over New York Jets ✅

Miami Dolphins (+1) over Los Angeles Rams ✅ 

We had a great week, but it could have been even better. The 49ers outplayed the Buccaneers by a wide margin, but Jake Moody missed three field goals and the team muffed inside its own 20-yard line that led to a Tampa touchdown. If not for poor special teams play, we would have covered that one. 

The Kansas City-Denver game played out pretty much how I predicted it would, and we easily hit the under there. The Saints led the entire game and upset the Falcons, while the Cardinals steamrolled the Jets and the Dolphins led the entire way en route to a win over the Rams. 

SEASON REPORT CARD (25-20, 56%)

SPREAD BETS (18-13, 58%) 

OVER/UNDER BETS (7-7, 50%) 

*You can track all my betting picks for the season here

Week 11 NFL Betting Picks

Lines are the best available from oddschecker.com as of Thursday afternoon.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 48.5

The best game in the early afternoon window is easily the battle between these AFC North rivals and that’s why I like the UNDER. 

Typically, in games between divisional opponents late in the season, we see more tightly-contested contests with both teams guarding against big plays and being a little bit more conservative. 

I see that here, plus John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin are both relatively conservative coaches who come from an old-school mentality. 

Ready for this crazy stat? The last SEVEN games between these two teams have gone UNDER the total. 

They haven’t had a game go over since the COVID season of 2020, when there were fewer than 5,000 fans in the stands in Baltimore. 

This total is high because the Ravens have a high-flying offense and the Steelers have been putting up points in bunches over the past four weeks. 

But this is the perfect game for both teams to slow down, so let’s bet that the UNDER streak gets to eight games. 

Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins OVER 44

I’m not sure that I quite understand this line. Miami has scored at least 23 points in every game since Tua Tagovailoa returned and the spread (Dolphins -7) implies that this should be a negative game script for the Raiders. 

While the Dolphins held the Rams offense down last week, that was mostly due to stopping Los Angeles from getting into the end zone. The Rams had the ball in Miami territory A LOT. 

Plus, we have two quarterbacks in this game who are prone to big turnovers, which often leads to easy points for the other team. 

The Raiders have allowed 27+ points in four of their last five games and Miami’s speed is going to wreak havoc. The Dolphins defense played well last week, but it hasn’t been a great unit overall this season. 

That all being said, I think this total should be closer to 46 or 47, so I’ll take the OVER here. 

Cleveland Browns (+1) over Seattle Seahawks 

I really hate betting on the Browns, but this spot is just too obvious. The Saints got the usual post-head-coach-firing bump last week and promptly upset the Falcons, which we predicted. 

But it’s always that second game where the team falls a little flat. Let’s not forget that New Orleans was playing like the worst team in the NFL for seven weeks before last Sunday’s win and the Browns are two weeks removed from beating the Ravens straight-up.

I don’t have a lot of analysis here other than I think the Saints are a bit overrated coming off a big win and the Browns are undervalued because… well, because they aren’t very good. 

But I do think they’re better than New Orleans and I expect the Cleveland defense to wreak havoc on a bad Saints offense.  

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) over Seattle Seahawks 

I know the 49ers burned me last week, but if anything, the close final score against Tampa kept this line under a full touchdown + extra point. So, I’m going to take it. 

Having Christian McCaffrey back returns this San Francisco offense to its rightful place among the game’s elites (he’s inarguably the most important non-QB offensive player in the NFL). 

And the 49ers already beat Seattle by two scores earlier this season and they did it on the road without McCaffrey. 

Seattle just isn’t very good, and they’ve feasted on weak competition. In games where they’ve played really good teams – Detroit, Buffalo, San Francisco – they’ve lost by an average of 15 points. 

The Seahawks are 1-5 over their last six games and it feels like people just haven’t even noticed that. Well, I have. 

San Francisco has had its own struggles, but I’m still buying the 49ers as an elite NFL team. I like them to beat the Seahawks by 10 points, at least. 

Buffalo Bills (-2) over Kansas City Chiefs 

It strikes me that public bettors are going to HAMMER the undefeated Chiefs as underdogs in a highly-anticipated matchup, so this is the perfect time to go the other direction. 

Sure, the Chiefs haven’t lost a game this season, but they’ve been incredibly lucky. I know, I know, good teams find ways to win blah, blah, blah. 

But I’m going to say it: the Buffalo Bills are better than the Kansas City Chiefs. And, for good measure, Josh Allen is playing better this year than Patrick Mahomes. 

Now, the Chiefs own the Bills in the playoffs. That’s something Buffalo has to overcome. But this isn’t a playoff game. This is a regular season game, in November, in Buffalo. 

Josh Allen is 3-0 ATS vs. Mahomes over the past three seasons in regular season games and 0-3 ATS in the playoffs. And all of those games were in Kansas City. 

This line should actually be higher, but oddsmakers know they don’t have to make the Chiefs heavy underdogs to entice action. Jump on the Bills.