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Billionaire investor Warren Buffett’s decision to unload many stocks and instead hoard cash and Treasury bonds has other investors wondering what he sees that they don’t.
Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway currently has $325 billion “in cash and equivalents,” according to reporting from the Wall Street Journal. That’s enough money for him to purchase “the 25 or so most valuable listed U.S. corporations” and still have cash left over.
Berkshire Hathaway’s latest infusion of cash came from aggressive sales of its top two holdings, Apple and Bank of America.
“And, for the first time in six years, it has stopped buying more of the stock it knows best—Berkshire Hathaway,” the Journal notes.
According to experts who spoke with the Daily Mail, all this behavior could be explained by one of three things: “Buffett is wary of [a] stock market crash, he may believe that stock prices will stagnate while cash offers a safer return, or he could be waiting patiently to make a major acquisition when the timing and value are right.”
Warren Buffett is going to look like the smartest man on the planet with his 325 billion cash reserve if the market crashes.
— Dividend Rob (@DividendRob) November 12, 2024
The Daily Mail further notes that Buffett and his business partner Charlie Munger’s longtime strategy has been to hold stocks for lengthy periods of time.
“They like to benefit as the share price goes up and companies pay dividends – all of which is re-invested,” according to the Daily Mail.
“Never interrupt compounding unnecessarily,” Munger once famously advised.
This strategy of picking a company and sticking to it has allowed Buffet to prioritize earning money through a steady build-up of wealth versus through quick profits.
That said, not everybody thinks Buffett’s decision to sell off stocks is a bad sign. According to J.C. Parets, the founder and chief strategy of All Star Charts, it might even be a good sign.
“Last time Warren Buffett had this high % of cash in his Berkshire portfolio, the stock market immediately went on to have the greatest 52-weeks in American history,” he noted in a tweet published earlier this month.
“The time before that, the bull market in stocks lasted for 3 more years. The lowest % of cash he’s had at any time over the past decade is right when the S&P500 peaked at the end of 2021,” he added.
Last time Warren Buffett had this high % of cash in his Berkshire portfolio, the stock market immediately went on to have the greatest 52-weeks in American history. The time before that, the bull market in stocks lasted for 3 more years. The lowest % of cash he’s had at any time…
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) November 4, 2024
Another doubter is Ben Carlson of Ritholtz Wealth Management.
“Some people think it’s time to start worrying about the stock market because Buffett is getting more defensive,” he wrote in a blog post last week. “Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t but that’s not the point.”
“I’m a huge Buffett fan. I just don’t believe a 94-year-old billionaire stock-piling cash in his insurance conglomerate has the same time horizon and risk profile as your 401k or brokerage account,” he added.
Plus, it turns out Buffett has been selling off stocks for four years straight, i.e., since around the time President Joe Biden assumed office.
“Berkshire has been a net seller of stocks in four of the last five years, largely missing out on a chance to capitalize on the post-COVID rally in stocks since 2020,” according to MarketWatch.
None of this seems coincidental.
Social media users meanwhile have their own theories, ranging from the funny to the bizarre.
Look:
He’s putting that all into Bitcoin I heard
— (@BusinessFamous) November 2, 2024
Buffett has done this in a market that says new record, highs almost daily! The old man has gone senile!
— Clyde (@11seahawks11) November 2, 2024
Warren is forecasting a market top and the world needs to pay attention to the greatest stock picker and investor alive.
— Stoic Investor (@Stoic_investr) November 2, 2024
It’s all about, finally, this 100 year old man retiring and passing the company to the next CEO. You want to maintain the legend, fine, give him credit for the transition, not his thoughts on the economy.
— Andrew Neuman (@AndrewN25179902) November 2, 2024
Because he knows the market will crash like the world has not experienced before.
After the crash, he will buy property and business for 10 cents in the $ and increase the wealth of the fund by 10 ~ 20 fold.
Assuming the world is still habitable by the end 2025— John Metzner (@JohnRMetzner) November 3, 2024
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