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The Emirates NBA Cup 2024, a.k.a. the “In-Season Tournament”, tips off Tuesday with eight group-play games featuring the New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers and Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors, both of which I have action on. Instead of wasting ink on explaining the NBA Cup, read this primer from the Association’s website. 

Essentially, the NBA Cup gives me something to bet on until the NFL this weekend. Even if the Association has been atrocious so far this season because of all the injuries. Without further ado, let’s get into my betting card for the first night of the 2024 NBA Cup. 

NBA Best Bets: Tuesday, November 12th  

  • Philadelphia 76ers SF Kelly Oubre Jr. UNDER 13.5 points (-115) vs. New York Knicks, risking 0.86 units (u).  
  • UNDER 226.5 (-110) in the Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee Bucks at FanDuel, risking 1.1u.
  • Dallas Mavericks +2.5 (-108) vs. Golden State Warriors at DraftKings, risking 1.08u.

Knicks at 76ers, 7:30 p.m. ET

New York’s defense has been awful this season, but that’s because first-year Knicks C Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the worst defensive bigs in the NBA. Their perimeter defense has been solid and NYK is fourth in points per game (PPG) allowed to opposing shooting guards, and Oubre is Philly’s starting shooting guard. 

Sixers All-Star C Joel Embiid makes his season debut Tuesday, and he has a longstanding rivalry with Towns. First-year Philadelphia wing Paul George is playing in his fifth game Tuesday. Meaning, Oubre will be getting less usage moving forward. 

Oubre’s usage should dip in this game since he faces New York’s best defenders: Forwards OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Hart. Lastly, Oubre is shooting career worsts from the field (40.0%) and from behind the arc (25.5%), and has the lowest free-throw attempt rate in Philly’s starting 5. 

Best Bet: Philadelphia SF Kelly Oubre Jr. UNDER 13.5 points

  • I’d take Oubre’s UNDER 13.5 points up to -130 odds.

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UNDER 226.5 in Raptors at Bucks, 8 p.m. ET

Toronto is 7-4 Over/Under (O/U), but those four Unders have come on the road. The Raptors have scored 103 or fewer points in three consecutive games, all on the road. Toronto All-Star SF Scottie Barnes is out for the next few weeks with an injury. Plus, the Raptors are 21st in true shooting rate, which accounts for 2-point, 3-point, and free-throw shooting. 

The Bucks are 3-7 O/U. Besides Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee’s offense sucks, and Lillard is out Tuesday with a concussion. Dame is scoring 26.0 PPG, Giannis is putting up an NBA-best 31.6 PPG, and the next closest Buck is backup big Bobby Portis, who is chipping in 12.5 PPG. 

Milwaukee negates one of Toronto’s few offensive strengths. The Raptors lead the NBA in second-chance PPG, but the Bucks are third in defensive rebounding rate and fifth in second-chance PPG allowed. Toronto is second in wide-open 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) allowed per game and Milwaukee is 14th in 3PAr. 

Prediction: Bucks 115, Raptors 106

  • The Bucks-Raptors UNDER is playable down to 225.

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Mavericks (+2.5) at Warriors, 10 p.m. ET

Luka Dončić plays well against Golden State. The Mavs won and covered all three meetings with the Warriors last season. Luka has scored 30+ points in nine of his 14 career games vs. Golden State, including four 40-plus-point efforts. Also, Dallas SG Kyrie Irving is ballin’, scoring 25.6 PPG on 53.9% shooting (55.2% from three). 

More importantly, this is The Klay Thompson Revenge Game. The Warriors traded four-time NBA champion, and Splash Brother, Thompson to Dallas this offseason. I assume he feels slighted and will be motivated to show Golden State it made the wrong decision. 

Dallas Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic drives to the hoop on the Golden State Warriors at the Chase Center. (Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports)

Dallas Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic drives to the hoop on the Golden State Warriors at the Chase Center. (Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports)

Steph Curry is a Warrior for life and the paid SF Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, and former SG Jordan Poole, but not Klay. For the record, Thompson should feel slighted. While he is no longer the defender he once was, I’d still rather have Klay’s experience and shooting instead of whatever Wiggins brings to the table.  

Finally, these teams’ records are misleading. TeamRankings.com says the Mavs are 26th in luck rating and the Warriors are third. Dallas has an NBA-worst -1.7 expected win differential based on net efficiency, per CleaningTheGlass.com. DunksAndThrees.com factors in strength of schedule and ranks the Mavericks third in net efficiency and the Dubs, 10th. 

Prediction: Mavericks 118, Warriors 113

  • Dallas is playable up to a pick ’em.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.