Why the Harris Campaign’s Fear and Loathing Failed

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It may be many days before America learns the outcome of the 2024 presidential election in Arizona – but across the rest of the country, it’s all over but the crying. Donald Trump won 301 electoral votes to Kamala Harris’ 226 so far, and Arizona’s 11 wouldn’t be enough to change his decisive win. He also currently holds the popular vote. No doubt fingers are pointing, and blame is flying across the Harris campaign and the Democratic Party in general. Her campaign’s fear and loathing approach clearly fell flat – and spectacularly so – but why? As is the case with most questions of politics, there isn’t just one answer.

It’s the Stupid Economy

Since the “Ragin Cajun” James Carville, one of Bill Clinton’s advisers, first coined the phrase in 1992, folks have been saying, “It’s the economy, stupid,” to explain what should be simple economic concepts. A slight paraphrasing of that might be the best explanation for the current situation: It’s the stupid economy. President Biden boasts of a robust economy well on the road to recovery from the devastatingly irresponsible policies of the Trump administration. But that’s simply not what the facts show. Rather, it’s Biden’s policies that actually drove inflation through the roof – and while prices may be down a bit from their recent highs, they’re nowhere near as low as they were four years ago when Trump left office – even in the height of the initial pandemic panic of 2020.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) tracks the national average price of regular-grade gas by month and year going back to September of 1990. If anyone wants to see how any given administration performed at the pump, it’s a handy resource. After a few simple calculations, that data paints a telling portrait of the Biden-Harris administration compared to Trump-Pence.

The national average saw a low of $1.84 and a high of $2.90 per gallon during the first Trump era. The average was $2.48. The national average for a gallon of regular gas was $2.33 in January of 2021. Biden took office toward the end of the month and the price immediately began to climb. It was $2.50 in February, $2.81 in March, $2.85 in April, and $2.98 in May. It broke $3 in June ($3.06) and hasn’t fallen below that mark since – though it did come close to hitting $5 ($4.93) in June 2022. The average for the Biden-Harris administration has so far been $3.45 a gallon, and there are still three months to go before Trump’s back in charge.

Another metric to easily track inflation is the average retail cost of a loaf of white bread. According to Statista, that was $1.36 in 2016 and $1.32 in 2017. The downward trend continued throughout the Trump years until the pandemic struck – but even then it didn’t rise much higher than when he took office. A loaf of bread cost $1.54 in 2020 and $1.53 in 2021. By 2022, the average loaf of white bread had jumped to $1.87, and it was $2.02 for 2023. Pick just about any consumer good and track the same data, and you’ll find a similar if not identical pattern. […]

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