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Make no mistake about it: Trump didn’t just win the presidency for four years; he likely won a conservative majority for a generation.

Though the potential retirements of Supreme Court justices are somewhat academic at this point, the three Supreme Court justices most likely to retire in the near term are Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Sonia Sotomayor. 

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At 76, Justice Clarence Thomas is the oldest and longest-serving member of the current Supreme Court. The next-oldest member is Justice Samuel Alito, who is 74 and has been a frequent subject of retirement speculation. Justice Sonia Sotomayor, at 70, is the third most likely to retire, facing not only age-related concerns but also reported health issues. This has fueled pressure from some on the left urging her to step down to secure a younger, ideologically aligned successor.

If any of these justices were to retire, it would have a major impact, potentially locking in the Court’s conservative majority for years. Naturally, Thomas and Alito are seen as the most likely to retire within the next four years. Supreme Court justices often carefully plan their departures to coincide with a like-minded president, aiming to ensure a successor who will uphold the principles they defended during their tenure.

While Thomas and Alito’s retirements wouldn’t change the balance of the court, Sotomayor’s would bring the 6-3 conservative majority to a 7-2 majority. This is why she likely wouldn’t retire willingly.

Sotomayor has, in the past, expressed frustration with being on the conservative court.

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“There are days that I’ve come to my office after an announcement of a case and closed my door and cried,” she said earlier this year. “There have been those days. And there are likely to be more.”

“There are moments when I’m deeply, deeply sad. There are moments when, yes, even I feel desperation. We all do,” she continued. “But you have to own it, you have to accept it, you have to shed the tears and then you have to wipe them and get up.”

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It sure sounds like her job is causing her immense distress, and if you’re miserable at your job, why would you continue to endure it? On top of that, Sotomayor reportedly travels with a medic because of her diabetes. She might not retire on her own terms, but it’s conceivable that her health issues could force her hand at some point. At the very least — assuming she doesn’t retire tomorrow, and the Biden administration and the Democrats in the Senate don’t try to fast-track nominating and confirming a successor — she’s likely to serve out as long as she can, essentially banking on the hope that she can handle the job through the next four years and a Democrat wins in 2028.

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Could Sotomayor retire in the hopes of having Joe Biden pick her replacement? I suppose it’s possible. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s decision to remain on the bench despite her age and serious health issues became extremely controversial after she passed in 2020. Barack Obama reportedly urged Ginsburg to retire during his presidency so he could name her replacement, but she declined. That refusal allowed then-President Donald Trump to appoint her successor. 

I can’t say what Sotomayor will do, but it seems inevitable that Thomas and Alito will take the opportunity to retire while Trump is president and that they’ll be replaced by younger originalist justices. If Trump just gets to replace those two, five of the nine justices will be Trump appointees.