Trump Gains Ground With Latino Voters in Pennsylvania, Nevada: Exit Poll

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Trump shrunk the margin between himself and his Democratic opponent by a substantial margin between 2016 and 2024.

Former President Donald Trump is performing significantly better with Latino voters in two critical battleground states, according to the results of national exit polling.

In the National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research on Nov. 5, Trump shrunk the margin between himself and the Democratic nominee by a substantial margin between 2016 and 2024.

The results are considered preliminary and will be updated as responses continue to arrive.

In Pennsylvania, a key battleground state, Trump is trailing Vice President Kamala Harris by a 17-point margin among exit poll respondents who identified as Latinos. However, in 2020, he trailed President Joe Biden by a 42-point margin. In 2016, he trailed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by a 52-point margin.

Meanwhile, in Nevada, another battleground state, Harris is leading Trump by a 2 percentage point margin among Latino voters. In 2020, Latino voters preferred Biden over Trump by a 26 percentage point margin. In 2016, the same cohort chose Clinton over Trump by a 29 percent margin.

Union Voters

In Pennsylvania, Trump is performing worse with union voters than he did in 2020, according to the exit poll results.

In 2024, respondents who told exit pollsters they were members of a union household said they voted for Harris rather than Trump by a 10 percentage point margin. In 2020, 51 percent of respondents who identified as members of a union household said they voted for Trump.

According to the exit poll results in Nevada, Trump improved his standing with union households. In 2024, respondents who identified as being part of a union household said they voted for Harris over Trump by a 5 percentage point margin. In 2020, Biden claimed a 19 percentage point advantage over Trump among union households in Nevada.

Education

Keeping up with trends in other battleground states, voters who told exit pollsters they had a college degree preferred Harris over Trump.

According to the exit polling results in Pennsylvania, respondents who said they had graduated from college preferred Harris over Trump by a 10 percent margin. Those who said they did not hold a college degree chose Trump over Harris by an identical 10 percentage-point margin.

The divide in Pennsylvania by education is growing. In the 2016 exit polling, Trump led among those who said they did not have a college degree by 7 percentage points.