Moderate GOP Rep Marc Molinaro projected to lose re-election after $35M battle in heavy blow to House GOP

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Democrat Josh Riley is projected to unseat first-term Rep. Marc Molinaro, R-N.Y., in a blow to House Republicans’ hopes of keeping control over half of Congress next year. 

The battle for New York’s 19th Congressional District – spanning parts of upstate New York, the Hudson Valley and distant suburbs outside New York City and Albany – was among the most expensive in the country.

The Associated Press called Molinaro’s race in the early hours of Wednesday morning.

Both sides and their allies spent more than $35 million on digital and TV ads, Politico reported in September.

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Rep. Marc Molinaro’s re-election bid saw him pitted against 2022 Democrat rival Josh Riley, right. (Getty Images | Josh Riley For Congress)

It was also viewed as a proxy for the national conversations around border security and abortion, two issues that have become political lightening rods in recent elections. 

Molinaro was elected in 2022, defeating Riley by less than 2% amid a wave of suburban backlash to New York City’s progressive crime policies.

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President Biden won Molinaro’s district in the 2020 presidential race. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

He was one of several Republicans elected to a district President Biden won in 2020.

Riley’s campaign website touts him as a fifth-generation upstate New Yorker who came from modest means.

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His previous Capitol Hill experience involved working as general counsel to former Sen. Al Franken, D-Minn., on the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Molinaro’s loss in the district also signals peril for House Republicans across the board: While his race was viewed as competitive, he was not thought to be as vulnerable as other New York Republicans with districts closer to its cities.

As of AP’s projection of the race, Republicans were projected to have won 184 seats compared to 156 for House Democrats.