House Control Too Close to Call

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It could take days or weeks to know the final results.

Both parties are holding their breath as control of the U.S. House of Representatives remains too close to call while results continue to come in from several crucial districts across the United States.

As of 9:30 a.m. ET on Nov. 6, The Associated Press projected Republicans to win at least 198 seats, while Democrats had at least 180 seats called in their favor. A minimum of 218 seats is required to claim the majority, though either party would find it difficult to govern with such a low margin.

It could take days or weeks to know the final results due to recounts and legal challenges.

Former President Donald Trump is projected to win reelection to a nonconsecutive term. Republicans are also projected to flip the Senate with at least 52 seats.

However, early returns in House voting paint a conflicting picture of the race for the lower chamber.

In New York, home to several crucial House races, some Republican incumbents, including Reps. Mike Lawler and Nick LaLota, seem on track to retain their seats. However, Democrats also unseated two Republican incumbents in the state: Josh Riley unseated Rep. Marc Molinaro, while John Mannion won over Rep. Brandon Williams.

In nearby Pennsylvania, Republicans also seemed poised to unseat two Democratic incumbents, Reps. Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright, with 99 percent of the vote reported.

But in neighboring Ohio, two Democratic incumbents, Reps. Emilia Sykes and Marcy Kaptur—key GOP targets in the right-trending state—were positioned to retain their seats.

Several California races also remain too close to call. With its 52 U.S. House members, California has the largest presence of any state in the lower chamber.

Control of the House is essential for Trump, the presumptive president-elect, to carry out his policy agenda, particularly on issues such as taxes.

For Democrats, it’s the only remaining hope they have of stopping another Republican trifecta, as the GOP achieved in 2016.

Historically, close House contests have been affected by the performance of the presidential nominee at the top of the ticket: It’s been decades since a party has won the White House without also winning the House. It last occurred under President George H.W. Bush in 1988.

Going into Election Day, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) aspired to increase his party’s relatively thin majority in the lower chamber, which Republicans reclaimed in 2023 after a four-year stint in the minority.

Republicans’ current majority of 220 seats to Democrats’ 212 has left Johnson with little wiggle room on important votes, able to spare only four defections.

Democrats, who controlled the lower chamber from 2019 to 2023, hope to take it back and name House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) as speaker.

While both parties have seen House elections that ended in huge gains for one party or the other—such as the Democrats’ sweeping victory in 2008 led by President Barack Obama and the Republicans’ massive victory in the 2014 midterm elections—this year, control of the House is expected to be close either way.