First Look: Trump Wins the White House and Republicans Control the Senate

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Last night, former President Trump won a signal victory in which Americans repudiated the last four years of deliberate cruelty and calculated neglect to return President Trump to the White House (see BREAKING: Donald Trump Projected to Win Presidency – RedState). Winning non-consecutive terms as president has only been accomplished once before in American history when Grover Cleveland returned to the White House in 1892 after a hiatus of four years. Not only did voters return Trump to the presidency, but they seem to have given him the tools to accomplish something. For at least two years, Trump will have GOP majorities in the House and the Senate to help implement his agenda.

Senate Control

On Election Night, Americans made the Republican party the majority party in the Senate.

Ohio: Bernie Moreno defeated Sherrod Brown and ended Chuck Schumer’s reign as Senate Majority Leader; see BREAKING: GOP Wins Control of U.S. Senate.

Montana: Tim Sheehy retired Jon Tester who should’ve never been elected in the first place; Tim Sheehy Flips Montana US Senate Seat.

These two were nearly a given if Trump performed well and they give the new Senate Majority Leader a one-vote buffer to work with. Tester was a weak candidate in a very Red State, and Brown was a survivor who managed to sound like whatever the Ohio electorate wanted in a senator.

Pennsylvania: Though the race has not been called, it is difficult to see how the three-term incumbent finds the votes to pull off a win. At this writing, challenger Dave McCormick leads Casey by over 50,000 votes, with over 95% of the vote counted. The only areas that have not hit the 95% threshold are Republican strongholds. If the vote-getting machine couldn’t do the trick for Kamala, I don’t think it will do it for Casey.

More possibilities could still happen if the stars align.

Nevada: Sam Brown has a 1,000-vote lead over Jacky Rosen. As much as I think Brown would make a superlative senator, it will be hard for him to hang on with 84% of the vote counted and a lot of those outstanding votes residing in Democrat-heavy Clark and Washoe counties.

Michigan: Mike Rogers started out the night strong but now trails Elissa Slotkin by 10,000 votes. Over 95% of the votes have been counted, but there are enough uncounted votes to give Rogers the seat. The uncounted votes are evenly spread over Democrat and Republican counties.

In Wisconsin, Eric Hovde now trails Tammy Baldwin by 27,000 votes, with 95% of the vote counted. It is difficult to see how he prevails.

House Control

Right now, the House make-up is 197 Republicans and 177 Democrats; a majority requires 218 votes.

Using the Cook Political Report as a baseline, the GOP has retained all the “Likely Republican” seats even though five of those have not been called yet. This brings the GOP caucus up to 205. The GOP has also swept the “Leans Republican” seats. Six of those seats haven’t been called yet, but they seem safe and bring the GOP total to 211. Of the 22 “Toss Up” seats, the GOP leads in 11 races, and we picked off two “Leans Democrat” seats. If all those wins hold, the GOP will have 224 seats. I don’t expect 100% of the leads to hold, but I do expect there to be at least 218 Republicans in the new House to vote for a Speaker. The detailed race status can be found at this link.

The job the new Speaker has won’t be easy because of a handful of Republicans who would rather get social media engagement than govern, but being in the majority is always preferable to being in the minority.

Outlook

The GOP will control the Executive Branch and narrowly control Congress. His nominations for cabinet positions should be filled rapidly. This gives President Trump a unique window of opportunity to push through a pro-liberty and pro-economic growth agenda and fill judicial vacancies with solid Originalists if the time isn’t squandered.