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The first Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (6-3) meeting this season in NFL Week 5 is one of my most annoying losses of the year. I had the Bengals +2.5, and they lost 41-38 in overtime, but how that happened was excruciating. Cincy held three 10-point leads in the second half, including two in the fourth quarter alone. 

In overtime, the Bengals recovered a fumble by Lamar Jackson on Baltimore’s 38-yard line. Cincinnati responded with three straight runs and settled for a 53-yard field goal, which PK Evan McPherson missed. Then Ravens RB Derrick Henry ran for 51 yards to set up a walk-off field goal by PK Justin Tucker. 

The most painful part of that loss was Bengals head coach Zac Taylor’s overtime play-calling because Joe Burrow torched Baltimore that day. He threw a costly interception to help the Ravens tie the game 38-38. Otherwise, Burrow completed 30-of-39 passes for 392 yards with 5 touchdowns and a 137.0 QB Rating. And, yes, I’m still butt-hurt about this loss. 

Baltimore is roughly -6 favorites across the market with a -260 to -275 moneyline (Cincy is +210 to +220) and the total is 52.5-53.0 points. Since I’m doubling down on the Bengals Thursday, I’m taking their best price, +6.5 (-120) at FanDuel, as of 1 p.m. ET Wednesday. 

Best Bet: Cincinnati Bengals +6.5, down to +5.5 

The Ravens beat the Bengals 34-20 on Thursday Night Football last season in Week 11. However, Cincinnati held a 10-7 lead before Burrow exited the game with what turned out to be a season-ending wrist injury. Burrow is 2-2 straight up (SU) on Thursdays with a 107.0 QB Rating and an 8/0 TD/INT rate. 

Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow drops back to pass vs. the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in Maryland. (Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images)

Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow drops back to pass vs. the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in Maryland. (Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images)

Plus, Burrow is a sleeper to win the 2024 NFL MVP. He is tied for the sixth betting choice to win the award at FanDuel with +1600 odds. But, that’s because Cincy has a losing record. If the Bengals sneak into the playoffs or go 7-1 SU in their final eight games, Burrow can steal the MVP from Lamar, the current betting favorite at +300 odds. 

Burrow can play keep away from Baltimore’s NFL-best offense. The Ravens lead the league in yards per play (7.1) and rank second in points per game (31.4). But, they are 30th in third-down conversion rate allowed on defense, and Cincinnati is third in third-down conversion rate on offense. Also, the Bengals are first in penalties per game and Baltimore is 28th. 

Finally, low-key, Cincy’s defense has been good at stopping the run. The Bengals are sixth in yards per rush allowed on defense. If you remove Henry’s 51-yard run in overtime, Cincinnati held him to 2.9 yards per carry. Lamar had 55 rushing yards on 12 carries and no rushing TDs. Jackson hasn’t scored a rushing TD in his last seven games vs. the Bengals since 2019. 

Prediction: Bengals 27, Ravens 24 

  • For what it’s worth, I’m probably submitting my Circa Million VI NFL Week 10 picks with Cincinnati’s spread on the card. I don’t like many games this week, and I’m 9-1 in Thursday Night Football games in the Circa Million since 2023. I’m sprinkling on the Bengals +200 moneyline to pull off an upset.

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‘Same Game Parlay’ at FanDuel (+2859) 

  1. Cincinnati +6.5 for the game
  2. UNDER 53.5 for the game
  3. Baltimore RB Derrick Henry UNDER 90.5 rushing yards
  4. Ravens TE Mark Andrews OVER 42.5 receiving yards 
  5. Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase Anytime Touchdown
  6. Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow OVER 8.5 rushing yards 

After cashing a 17-to-1 Same Game Parlay (SGP) in last week’s Thursday Night Football game between the Houston Texans and New York Jets, I’m running it back in Week 10. I’ve already laid out my analysis for the first leg of the SGP (Cincy +6.5). The second leg is a fade of the first Bengals-Ravens game this season, in which 79 points were scored. 

The Cincinnati Bengals take down Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry at Payor Stadium in NFL Week 5. (Cara Owsley/The Enquirer-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

The Cincinnati Bengals take down Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry at Payor Stadium in NFL Week 5. (Cara Owsley/The Enquirer-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

Overall, Cincinnati’s defense did a good job vs. Henry in Week 5. Baltimore RB Keaton Mitchell could make his 2024 debut Thursday. Mitchell averaged 8.4 yards per rush as a rookie last year, so I could see John Harbaugh using him to limit the mileage on Henry and Lamar. 

For the third leg, Andrews has 45+ receiving yards in eight of his 12 career games against the Bengals. He caught 4 balls for 55 yards vs. Cincy earlier this season. His snap count could increase Thursday since TE Isaiah Likely has been ruled out. Andrews leads Baltimore’s tight ends and receivers in catch rate (minimum of three targets).

Chase has an NFL-best 7 TD catches this season and has found the end zone in five of his nine games. Furthermore, Chase has scored a TD in four of his seven career meetings with the Ravens with five total TDs, including a 10-193-2 stat line earlier this year. 

Lastly, I like betting Over on the rushing yards prop for the less mobile quarterback based on the hunch that they want to prove they are athletic too. Burrow has 9+ rushing yards in six games this season. In 26 career games as an underdog, Burrow has rushed for 9+ yards 15 times and averages 15.2 rushing yards per contest. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.