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Mark my words, I’ll never mention an NBA winning streak again on this website. Literally, every time I do so, that streak gets snapped. For example, the end of my headline for Monday’s NBA “best bets” piece was From An Analyst On A 9-3 Run. Like I predicted when writing “I’m probably jinxing myself by mentioning” this, my winning streak came to an embarrassing end.
In my defense, two of my four losses Monday were bogus. I had the moneyline with the Miami Heat vs. the Sacramento Kings and +3.5 with the San Antonio Spurs vs. the Los Angeles Clippers. Miami blew a game-high 15-point lead and San Antonio squandered a 26-point first-quarter lead. That said, I’m handicapping angry Wednesday, which is when I do my best betting.
NBA Betting Card For Wednesday, November 6
- Bet 1 unit (u) on the Detroit Pistons moneyline (+100) vs. Charlotte Hornets at FanDuel.
- Bet 1.05u on the Golden State Warriors -6.5 (-110) vs. Boston Celtics at Fanatics Sportsbook.
- Bet 1.12u on the OVER 221 (-112) in the Miami Heat vs. Phoenix Suns at FanDuel.
Pistons (+100) at Hornets, 7 p.m. ET
Charlotte is on a three-game losing skid, losing twice to the Celtics and once to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Detroit has won back-to-back games by double digits vs. the Brooklyn Nets and Los Angeles Lakers. The Pistons won and covered all three meetings with the Hornets last season.
Detroit should own Charlotte on the glass. The Pistons have a +7.8 rebound-per-game margin and the Hornets will be without starting big Nick Richards for a third straight game. Richards averages 11.0 points and a team-high 10.0 rebounds per game. Charlotte C Taj Gibson, who is 39 years old and hasn’t been a full-time starter since 2019-20, replaces Richards.
Detroit Pistons PG Cade Cunningham drives to the basket on the Charlotte Hornets at Spectrum Center in North Carolina. (Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images)
Moreover, Pistons PG Cade Cunningham is better than Hornets PG LaMelo Ball, and having the best player on the floor in basketball matters. Cunningham has a better field goal percentage, averages more rebounds and assists and fewer turnovers.
Detroit is the more physical team that competes on the defensive end. The Pistons score more paint points per game (PPG) and allow less paint PPG. Their field goal attempt rate at the rim is higher. Finally, Detroit is 15th in defensive rating and third in “wide-open” 3-point attempts surrendered per game.
Prediction: Pistons 114, Hornets 111
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Warriors (+6.5) at Celtics, 7:30 p.m. ET
This is a rematch of the 2022 NBA Finals in which the Warriors won 4-2. These teams have split their four regular-season meetings since, but Golden State has covered three of those games. However, in their most recent meeting, the Celtics crushed the Warriors 140-88, so the Dubs will be out for revenge Wednesday.
More importantly, Boston is missing two starters, SF Jaylen Brown and C Kristaps Porzingis, and the market is hesitant to embrace Golden State after a disappointing season in 2023-24. The Warriors lost the first play-in game for the Western Conference Playoffs last season whereas the Celtics are the reigning NBA champions.
Golden State Warriors PG Stephen Curry gets to the hoop on the Boston Celtics in Game 4 of the 2022 NBA Finals at the TD Garden. (David Butler II-Imagn Image)
Yet, Golden State is one of the few NBA teams that can match Boston in 3-point shooting. The Warriors have better offensive and defensive 3-point percentages and better wide-open 3-point rates on both sides of the floor. Six Warriors are shooting higher than 40.0% from 3, including 2024 Paris Olympic Gold Medalist Steph Curry (41.7%) and SG Buddy Hield (50.0%).
Golden State is the best rebounding team in the NBA and ranks inside the top 10 in offensive and defensive turnover rates. Basketball Reference has a “Simple Rating System” (SRS), which blends margin of victory with strength of schedule. The Warriors are second in SRS while Boston is third, so it’s not like Golden State has played an easy schedule.
Prediction: Celtics 116, Warriors 114
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OVER 221 in Heat at Suns, 9 p.m. ET
Their two meetings last season had totals of 228 and 230. Granted, both Heat-Suns games last season went Under the total. Regardless, given how these teams play to start the season, Wednesday could be a shootout. Phoenix is fifth in 3PAr under first-year head coach Mike Budenholzer, and Miami is ninth.
Phoenix Suns SG Devin Booker shoots a contested jumper over Heat SG Tyler Herro at Kaseya Center in Miami. (Sam Navarro-Imagn Images)
The Suns are fourth in true shooting rate, which accounts for 2-point, 3-point, and free-throw shooting, and the Heat are fifth in 3-point shooting percentage. Both teams have knockdown shooters, such as Phoenix’s Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Grayson Allen, and Bradley Beal, and Miami’s Tyler Herro, Terry Rozier, Duncan Robinson, and Jimmy Butler.
Lastly, perhaps our Over 221 gets help from the referees. Heat-Suns crew chief Scott Foster is 4-0 to the Over this season and games he officiates are averaging 238.8 PPG. Phoenix is fourth in offensive free-throw rate and Miami is 10th.
Prediction: Suns 117, Heat 110
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.
