What Turnout in These 2 Congressional Districts in VA Will Tell You About

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The polls will soon close on the East Coast, so we’ll finally have some cold, hard numbers to tell us which way things are going for our preferred candidates. Exit polls can be finicky things, so we’re left waiting for local election officials to report their tallies, which can often be an exercise in frustration.

And then we have to wait for states like Nevada to conduct “signature curing” before we know their final results. It could be a waiting game of days or weeks, but, luckily, we have two congressional districts on the east coast that will provide us with some good insight on how voter turnout on Election Day proper can help us draw some conclusions.

While not technically a swing state in 2024, the commonwealth of Virginia has proven to be a surprisingly competitive state for Republicans. A recent poll by the Democrat advocacy firm Chism Strategies showed Kamala Harris holding a much narrower lead than expected.

Virginia has the most surprising result of the three states we surveyed. While there have been few surveys of the state, those we have seen have mostly shown Harris performing close to Biden’s 2020 numbers and Tim Kaine running significantly ahead of Harris.

However, our survey tells a different story, with Harris up by .7% (45.2%-44.5%), a statistical tie, and Kaine not leading his Republican opponent Hung Cao by much more (46.4%-44.9%).

While it’s still a reach for Trump and Cao to win there, two of the commonwealth’s congressional races are their own bellwethers will national implications: VA03 in the Norfolk/Hampton area, and VA07 on the outer exurbs of Northern Virginia. It turns out that the demographics of these two districts mimic those in important swing areas throughout the country.

Political analyst Henry Olsen explained to Megyn Kelly what these districts will tell those who are anxious for some election indicators.

KELLY: I heard you on my buddies over at RealClearPolitics – on their podcast talking about the first signs of the evening that you’re going to be looking at, and I found this very interesting. Can you talk to me about Virginia 03 and Virginia 07?

OLSEN: Yeah, well Virginia 03 is the African-American District that I was talking about. The Republicans are not going to win that seat, but the turnout is going to be really indicative, you know.

If what you’re talking about is a low turnout in a Virginia congressional seat that’s dominated by African-Americans, turnout rates don’t vary all that much in states. It’s not like people don’t show up in a presidential year in non-swing states and do in swing states, so if you’ve got a low turnout in Virginia 03, that’s an indication that you’re going to have a low turnout in Philadelphia, a low turnout in Detroit, a low turnout in Milwaukee, a low turnout in Clayton County and the black suburbs of Atlanta. It’s an indication early that things are not going right, and the converse is true; if you get a high turnout ,then that means is that, yeah, they all they didn’t show up in early voting, but they showed up on Election Day and that’s a good sign for Harris.

Virginia 07 is a contested multi-racial district between the exurbs of Northern Virginia and the City of Fredericksburg. Biden won it by under seven points and it’s a very heavily contested congressional district. This is where Eugene Vindman, the brother of the Vindman who who was so important in the first impeachment trial, is running. And if there’s a movement among blacks and Hispanics towards Republicans, we will see it here first.

And if we’re talking about instead of winning this district by seven points, Harris is winning it by one or two or maybe even losing, it is a huge warning sign that the racial realignment is real and that Trump will do well. The converse is true; if Harris is winning it by seven points, just the same as Biden, that says the Biden coalition is being reassembled so those two districts in Virginia.

So, there you have it. No need to wait until the last ballot in Nevada is counted. If you want a good idea how things are going to shake out for Donald Trump nationally, keep on eye on VA03 and VA07. And be sure to keep an eye on things here at RedState, as we’ll be bringing you all the election news you need! The fun starts at 7:00 p.m. EST.