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Virginia was once one of those infamous “bellwether” states, but that hasn’t really been the case for many years. Yes, Glenn Youngkin disrupted everything by winning the gubernatorial race in 2021, but he’s been the exception to the rule. Both Senate seats have been controlled by Democrats and the governor’s mansion has been likewise occupied by Democrats for most of this century. 

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In terms of presidential elections, Virginia hasn’t gone for a Republican since George W. Bush in 2004. The leftward shift in the Old Dominion can be attributed to the populous Northern Virginia area, home to many federal workers and federal contractors. Since the livelihoods of these voters depend on the largesse of the federal government, they tend to vote their pocketbooks and pull the lever for Democrats.

There are no statewide elections this year because Virginia votes for those offices in the off years. This means that the results of the 2024 elections will set up a showdown for the 2025 governor’s race, expected to be between Republican and current Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears and Democrat Abigail Spanberger. Sitting governor Glenn Youngkin is unable to run for two consecutive terms.

Presidential Race – Donald Trump (R) vs. Kamala Harris (D)

While Virginia’s thirteen electoral votes is a nice haul for the victorious candidate, the commonwealth’s propensity to vote for Democrats in federal elections has made it seem not very competitive for Republicans. However, there have been some recent signs that Donald Trump is faring better there than anyone had expected.

First, there was that Department of Justice (DOJ) lawsuit against Glenn Youngkin for removing non-citizens from the state’s voting roles, which is required due to a law signed into effect by then-governor and Democrat Tim Kaine. Curiously, the lawsuit, which was filed in October, came just as the needle seemed to be moving in the Republicans’ direction. The Supreme Court of the United States weighed in on the matter with an emergency stay and allowed the purge of non-citizens from voter rolls to stand. 

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Next, early voting numbers showed that Republican-aligned voters were voting in numbers greater than had ever been seen before. As of a few weeks ago, Democrats held only an 11-point advantage when they’d traditionally hold around a 30-point advantage in early voting numbers. That trend towards the GOP has held through Election Day.

Then, polling showed Kamala Harris holding a much narrower lead than expected. Per Democrat advocacy firm Chism Strategies:

Virginia has the most surprising result of the three states we surveyed. While there have been few surveys of the state, those we have seen have mostly shown Harris performing close to Biden’s 2020 numbers and Tim Kaine running significantly ahead of Harris.

However, our survey tells a different story, with Harris up by .7% (45.2%-44.5%), a statistical tie, and Kaine not leading his Republican opponent Hung Cao by much more (46.4%-44.9%).

Finally, Donald Trump showed up on Saturday for a campaign rally in Salem, Virginia. Trump’s team clearly saw enough reason for optimism in Virginia to warrant a stop in the crucial last days of the campaign.

State of play: Joe Biden won Virginia by +10 points in 2020. If polling is correct, and that’s a big “if,” Virginia is not as blue this time around as it has been in previous presidential elections. A win by Trump would be a devastating blow to Kamala Harris’s chances of winning the presidency, but even a decent showing by Trump in Virginia could portend big trouble for Harris in other states.

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Senate Race – Hung Cao (R) vs. Tim Kaine (D)

This one shouldn’t even be close, yet there are signs that Republican Hung Cao is running a much more competitive race than had been expected. Let’s refer back to that Chism Strategies poll: “Kaine not leading his Republican opponent Hung Cao by much more (46.4%-44.9%).” Those numbers, if true, are jaw-dropping.

Democrat Tim Kaine, once Hillary Clinton’s vice presidential pick, has held his Senate seat since 2013. He beat Republican George Allen by +6 points in 2012 and Republican Corey Stewart by a whopping +16 points in 2018.

Like Trump, Cao must perform well in the Northern Virginia area if he hopes to win. Cao’s name recognition is decent in that area due to his 2022 effort to unseat Democrat Jennifer Wexton in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District. The question is whether there will be Donald Trump coattails in Virginia were the former president to fare well there; if so, will military veteran Hung Cao ride those coattails to an unexpected victory over career politician Tim Kaine?

House Races

There are two main races to watch here: VA02 and VA07.

In VA02, Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans faces a tough challenge from Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal. Kiggans unseated Democrat Congresswoman Elaine Luria in 2022, winning by nearly +3.5 points. Things are tight for Kiggans again in 2024:

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Kiggans is leading 46% to Cotter Smasal’s 45% among likely voters. 8% remain undecided in the race. Kiggans had a stronger lead in a mid-September poll that had her up by 5 points.

The other race of interest is for the open seat in VA07, where Republican Derrick Anderson is taking on Democrat Eugene Vindman. Vindman is the brother of Alexander Vindman, the darling of the left who had a starring role in the Trump impeachment hearings. 

Eugene Vindman has spent his entire campaign dodging questions from the media, a la Kamala Harris. On Monday, during an appearance on CNN, Vindman even forgot which district he was running in:

Like Hung Cao’s Senate race, Derrick Anderson is within striking distance of the well-funded Eugene Vindman. Polling by Ragnar Research Partners has Vindman with a +2 point lead over Anderson. Republicans have brought in heavy hitters like House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Glenn Youngkin to campaign for Anderson, who is running in an area that includes the very outside edge of Northern Virginia area. It’s a winnable seat for the GOP and would be an important pickup in their quest to keep control of the House of Representatives.

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Polls in Virginia close at 7:00 PM EST, which is when RedState’s election night coverage begins. Don’t even think about not being here!