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I’m ready to update/modify Shakespeare: “First thing we do, let’s kill all the pollsters.” The last round of polls show things essentially dead even, but the convergence of the polls is odd. You’d expect more variance. So forget the head-to-head horserace polls.

Nate Silver’s model shows Trump with a 52 % chance of winning:

Let’s look instead at the underlying issue map, which favors Republicans:

Postscript—I do think this is one of the most important factors in this election:

And about that absurd Iowa poll:

In this regard, don’t miss Henry Olsen’s prediction of a Trump/GOP near-sweep. He’s usually right on the nose in presidential elections (predicting Trump would win in 2016, and Romney lose in 2012, for example).

And finally, The Telegraph‘s political staff unanimously think Trump is going to win.