More Emerson: Surprises Brewing in Senate Races?

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By this point in the cycle, most observers believe Republicans will control the Senate in 2025. They only need to flip two seats to take firm control, and only one if Donald Trump and J.D. Vance win the election and Vance can cast tie-breaking votes. 

The loss of Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia s already baked into the calculations, which is why the RCP map has the GOP with 50 solid seats, and only 7 toss-ups. Democrat incumbent Jon Tester has trailed by a significant margin in every Montana poll since the summer, which RCP lists as leaning GOP. Similarly, Democrats have had solid and consistent leads in Arizona, while Ted Cruz has a 4-plus point lead in the RCP aggregation for Texas despite their labeling it a “toss up.” A 51-seat majority seems pretty locked in at the moment, especially since Texas is the only GOP-incumbent state in the “toss up” category.

However, late data from Emerson suggests that we could get surprises tomorrow night in Senate elections. Both in Pennsylvania and in Ohio, Democrat incumbents have fallen into dead heats against Republican challengers at the end of the cycle.

Let’s start in Ohio, where Sherrod Brown had looked relatively strong in a red state … until this week:

In the US Senate election, 48% support Republican Bernie Moreno, and 45% support Democrat Sherrod Brown, 6% are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, 52% support Moreno and 48% Brown.  

Brown leads in early voting, 52% to 48%, but among those planning to vote in person, Moreno holds an edge, 48% to 43%.

Since the last Ohio poll in September, Brown’s support decreased by two percentage points, and Moreno’s support increased by four points, while the share of undecided voters decreased from 10% to 6%. 

This might be a coattail effect from the presidential race. Brown outperforms Kamala Harris significantly, who’s presently trailing in the Buckeye State by twelve points to Donald Trump, 54/42. That has not changed significantly over the course of the general election, but the impact appears to have eroded Brown’s standing during the same period. Emerson had him consistently up two points in every iteration during the general election until now, and no pollster had Moreno in the lead at all until mid-October. Four of the last six polls including this Emerson iteration now have Moreno in a narrow lead over the Democrat incumbent. 

Meanwhile in Pennsylvania, we have both polling and campaign data suggesting that Bob Casey’s bid for a fourth term could be in serious trouble. 

• Pennsylvania US Senate: 47% support incumbent Democrat Bob Casey, 47% support Republican David McCormick, 6% are undecided.
  • Since October, support for McCormick increased one point, while support for Casey stayed at 47%.

This would be an even bigger surprise than Ohio. Trump leads polling in Ohio by double digits, so it’s hardly a surprise that Brown’s declining along with Harris. The Emerson tie here is almost an outlier in RCP’s results. Only GOP pollster Trafalgar and Atlas Intel ever showed McCormick with a lead, with the only other non-Casey-lead poll in October came from Rasmussen. RCP has Casey up 2.4 points in its PA Senate aggregation — close but not exactly dramatically so. 

Is this an outlier? Well, Casey doesn’t act like it. As the Daily Wire reports today, Casey just reversed himself on transgenders in women’s sports, or more accurately, lying about his position on it:

In a new ad, Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey accuses Republican opponent Dave McCormick of lying about Casey’s well-documented record on LGBTQ issues.

“Dave McCormick and his billionaire backers think they can fool you about anything,” the ad says. “The truth? Bob Casey’s not for men and girls’ sports.”

But as The Daily Wire reported, Casey has a long history of fighting for men in women’s sports. He co-sponsored the Equality Act, legislation that would have allowed men who identify as women into female locker rooms, prisons, shelters, and more. He has expressed support for child gender transitions and called Republicans “extreme” for objecting to men in women’s spaces.

Casey is one of several Democrats who have reversed their position on transgender issues during this election cycle as more and more Americans voice their displeasure with the increasingly radical LGBTQ policies pushed by leftist activists. In Texas and Alaska, Colin Allred and Mary Peltola both are backing away from their former votes and stances on the topic.

A late reversal on this topic does not indicate confidence in electoral prospects. And given how Kamala Harris has been vocal about defending the progressive agenda on transgender issues and how Casey began to invoke his ability to work with Trump, one has to wonder about his confidence in No Comment Kamala’s prospects in PA, too.

Keep an eye on these results. Emerson’s last Senate iteration doesn’t suggest any other Democrat flips, but they could happen in Michigan and Wisconsin if Trump gets a surprisingly strong turnout. Fifty-one seats could turn into 55 by the end of the week. 

But of course … don’t get cocky, kid. Get out and vote, and take some friends with you.