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For decades, Democrats have relied on the votes of black and Hispanic voters to keep them in office. The constant drumbeat of “Republicans are racist!” doesn’t seem to be working anymore as those voters struggle in the Biden-Harris economy. While Democrats’ wildest dream might be to turn the Lone Star state blue, it’s the exact opposite of what appears to be happening. A definite shift happening among Hispanic voters in Texas could spell trouble for the Democrats in the 2024 election and beyond.

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The Rio Grande Valley (RGV) is an area that directly borders Mexico. The population is primarily Hispanic, and traditionally, it has been heavily Democratic. But that appears to be changing. Residents who describe themselves as lifelong Democrats are increasingly at odds with their party. The soaring cost of living in one of the nation’s poorest areas and disagreement with Democrats on cultural issues have these lifelong Democrats taking a look at the Republican Party.

Five counties make up the RGV. Starr, Hidalgo, Willacy, Zapata, and Cameron. Numbers from the last two elections illustrate how the tide might be turning. In 2016, Hillary Clinton took all five of these counties. In Zapata, which is 94 percent Hispanic, Clinton soundly beat Donald Trump with 65 percent of the vote to 32 percent. But in 2020, something happened. A county that had been reliably blue for nearly 100 years flipped red, with Trump beating Joe Biden with 53 percent of the vote to 47 percent. 

The trend toward Donald Trump has spread across the other RGV counties as well. He gained 69,493 more votes across those counties from 2016 to 2020, and local Republican officials are excited at the possibility those numbers could go higher in 2024. Toni Trevino is Starr County’s Republican Chair and said, “His support is just really remarkable….It’s off the charts, more so than in ‘16 and ‘20.” The reason for the shift is pretty obvious. Jennifer Thatcher, Zapata County’s Republican Chair, said, “What they want is change. Everybody’s tired of the same thing, you know, same empty promises and nothing getting done.”

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The top election issues for citizens of the RGV are the same as Americans all over the country. But in a place where you might think that illegal immigration is the number one issue, and some voters say that is their top concern, the economy is turning out to be the biggest reason for the trend. One of those voters who describes himself as a lifelong Democrat said, “Things are getting very expensive. To go to a restaurant, it’s expensive. Expensive groceries.” The Biden-Harris economy has created an area where 24.7 percent live below the poverty level, nearly triple that of the entire country. 

But even with a visible shift in voting, an interesting thing is taking place in Starr County. Local GOP officials say that voters are voting Democrat for local candidates, but in the presidential election, they are voting for Trump. The main issue, once again, remains the economy. Unfortunately for Democrats, RGV residents remember that life was much better under Donald Trump. Starr County GOP official Ross Berrera summed up what Hispanic voters want, and it’s not more handouts and empty promises from Democrats. Berrera hints at another reason why Hispanic voters are not voting Democrat. Catholics make up a large portion of the population, and they are turned off by the Democrat Party’s positions on things like abortion, sex changes for children, and even funding wars overseas and border security. 

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“The reason they come to America, not because they want abortions. They come because of jobs. These people, they want to work. They don’t want a giveaway. But the Democrats [say], “Oh, we’ll give you this. We’ll give you that. No, no, no, give me a job.”

Former Rep. Myra Flores (R-TX)  won a special election in June of 2022 to fill an empty seat and became the first Republican to serve in Congress from the RGV in 150 years. She lost in the 2022 midterms and is running for the seat again in 2024.  She said of Trump’s chances in the RGV in 2024, “I think it is almost certain that he will over-perform from 2020, and it is entirely possible that he sweeps the entire Rio Grande Valley.” Flores added,

“Latino voters have been abandoned by the Democratic party. After decades of one-party rule, being taken for granted, and only seeing things get worse, they want a change.”

Flores called the stranglehold Democrats have had on the RGV “single-party rule.” Hispanic voters may have other ideas.