Is Wisconsin the Weakest Link In Trump's Path to Over 300 Electoral

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I talked on the phone this afternoon with my friend John Pudner, who has been part of the campaign to turn Wisconsin red this election. John is one of the sharpest number crunchers in politics and sports. Texas Congressman Troy Nehls has recently gone so far as to say if Trump wins Wisconsin, he would owe a big thanks to John for his efforts.

Pudner is currently head of Take Back Our Republic Action and, in a separate role, has been working to get out the vote as part of the Wisconsin Faith and Freedom Coalition. Here are a few takeaways from our conversation.

Q. Are people overconfident about this election?

The strangest thing about this race is that both sides are overconfident. In 2020, I would travel door-door and based on responses, I could tell Trump was not going to win. In 2016, I was confident he would win. This year is different. Both sides can’t believe there are voters out there who would vote for the other candidate. Both sides are overconfident that voters will agree with them on Election Day.

Q. How are things going in Wisconsin?

Wisconsin is the weakest of the swing states, and we might fall short. We are working hard, setting up a chance of winning all seven swing states. But of the seven Wisconsin is the weakest.

Q. Why is Wisconsin different?

I’m looking at the black vote and those registering to vote. Number one, the black vote is strong for Trump, especially based on history. But the swing is more pronounced in Philadelphia and Detroit and in the South. It is holding closer to the traditional norms in Milwaukee. Number 2, yes, early registration and voting have swung strongly toward Republicans. Democrats began with an 89,000-voter lead over registered Republicans. It is now down to about 3,000. Wisconsin is moving in the right direction. If we can get the 3,000 and build the Republican vote, we have a chance.

Q. On the phone last night a Democrat friend called to cackle over a possible Trump loss in Iowa. Any thoughts on this?

In Iowa, there was a very interesting poll. Most of the polls are garbage. They put out one or two points for questions. I commend the Des Moines Register for giving us the underlying numbers. I think it is good when pollsters are honestly putting out what they are calculating. I don’t agree with their conclusion that Harris is up by 3, but we know how they arrived at it. On the same note, Echelon Insights put a poll out, with Trump winning Pennsylvania by 6 points. They also showed how they arrived at that. I want to encourage pollsters to put out their numbers and how they arrived at their results. Still, I am glad someone is running an independent poll and making it clear how they arrived at their conclusion.

Q. What state might surprise us for Vice President Harris?

You could have a long shot for Harris in North Carolina. You do have a lot of hurricane damage and displacement. That could benefit Harris. Rural conservative voters were the hardest hit. I think in North Carolina, you can end up with unexpected results because any time there is a wild card, the outcome can change.

Q. Other than swing states are there any states President Trump could pick up that no one expects?

The only possible one is Minnesota. Minnesota is four years away from turning red compared to the current Democrat Party lead in the state. It would be a surprise if the clock moved forward and Trump won Minnesota this time around.

Q. What issue is grabbing voters’ attention?

The most clearly defined issues are the transgender push and what voters are paying for groceries and what they are paying for gas. Operations on kids, the men in women’s sports and locker rooms. That is such a tough issue to explain away for the Left. They can always find economists who will try to explain away the economy. The transgender issue is the most clearly defined and the easiest to communicate to voters. There is not much the Left can say about it that is convincing voters. There is a disconnect between the liberal transgender agenda and the concerns of black voters, particularly black men. Black voters are concerned about fairness in policing, jobs, and education.

Q. How do you think Trump will do in the Electoral College? What are polls telling you?

I think Trump is going to get 300+. I trust early voting and early voter registration. I believe these more than polls. Those are the two things that indicate who will win. When one side registers voters, and their voters vote early — that is the strongest sign. It works. In 2002, our targeted efforts helped us secure 68% of the inner-city vote to block a tax increase in a Southern state. In 2022, we used a similar strategy, focusing on early voting in Shreveport—a city that is 57% black—to elect a Republican. So far, Democrats have struggled to get black males and other key liberal groups to vote early for Harris. They may manage to turn things around on Election Day, but the challenge of reversing early voting trends is daunting.