Early Voting Figures in Pennsylvania Look Great for Trump

Republicans are jubilant as early voting figures show a major improvement for Donald Trump in a crucial swing state Kamala Harris can’t win without.

Pennsylvania, with its 19 Electoral College votes, has long been seen as the state which will decide the presidential election. Both Trump and Harris need the state on their path to 270, unless either can gain states which the other has held an advantage in throughout the campaign. But just for some data to prove how crucial a state it is; if Trump can carry Pennsylvania, he has a 96% chance of winning the election.

Early voting throughout Pennsylvania has given the Democrat a sizeable advantage, with the Vice President leading her Republican opponent by around 410,000 votes on “Election Eve.” Harris holds 997,450 votes among registered Democrats, with Trump amassing 587,546 from within his own party. Independent voters, meanwhile, have cast 205,323 ballots.

On the face of it, the data suggests a 25-point lead for Harris with her party members turning out slightly more than eligible Republicans. However, a comparison with 2020 tells a different story.

🦅 Pennsylvania – 2024 General Election – Election Eve

📥 1,790,319 votes cast

🔵 DEM: 997,450 – 83.1% returned
🔴 GOP: 587,546 – 82.1% returned
🟡 IND: 205,323 – 72.8% returned

VBM Splits: 🔵 55.7% / 🔴 32.8% / 🟡 11.5%

🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+409,904
📈 Return Edge: 🔵+1

— Joshua Smithley (@blockedfreq) November 4, 2024

Four years ago, early voting Democrats returned 1,702,484 ballots, suggesting Harris is over 700,000 votes worse off than Joe Biden was at this stage in the race. The GOP, meanwhile, amassed 623,404 in early voting tallies.

PA Ballots RETURNED 11/04:

Dems: 997,450 (55.7%) +7,261 from 11.03
GOP: 587,546 (32.8%) +3,755 from 11.03
Indie: 205,323 (11.5%) +2,284 from 11.03

Change from end of 2022:
GOP: +323,896
Dem: +140,170

Change from end of 2020:
GOP: -30,692
Dem: -721,276 https://t.co/xgK5ag0CdK pic.twitter.com/DaFsI5HrC0

— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) November 4, 2024

The data has prompted some Democrats to begin worrying.

If Trump wins, I’m packing my shit and moving to Cabo with my wife Kate. Enough is enough.

— CB— (@ConservBlue2020) November 4, 2024

Donald Trump is in trouble. I know numbers, and Donald Trump doesn’t see eye’to-eye because numbers will always Trump him every time. Numbers don’t lie, but Donald does. Tomorrow, Americans will put an end to his vileness once and for all.

Who is with me on this? Vote Kamala!!!

— Vick (@ImancheVic17188) November 4, 2024

Republicans, on the other hand, were more celebratory over the early indications.

Slowly watching the excitement drain from dems and Joshua by following these daily threads has been lovely over the past week. Thanks!

— Schwarts (@pwoodboerne) November 4, 2024

they don’t even reach 440k 😭😭😭

— El Trumpista (@ElTrumpista) November 4, 2024

A lot of people on this thread spreading the hopium that independents are breaking for Harris in large quantities.

But if Democrats themselves aren’t particularly enthusiastic about Harris, why would independents be?

— Pro America Politics (@Pro__Trading) November 4, 2024

1.1 MILLION vote firewall in 2020….down to 409K…..

— NOT Jim 🙂 (@JeRrE1776) November 4, 2024

Of course, there are so many factors at play that we won’t know for sure until the ballots are counted. If you want your candidate to win, get out and vote!