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An early voting expert has predicted that former President Donald Trump has a solid chance of picking up a victory in North Carolina, an important state that could propel him to an overall victory.

Writing on his Substack, Michael McDonald argued that early voting trends in North Carolina bode well for Trump, putting him on a path to victory in a state that has faced many challenges in recent weeks due to damage from Hurricane Helene.

“The good news for Donald Trump is he appears poised to win North Carolina based on the early voting. In 2020, NC registered Democrats had a 5.6 advantage in early voting (both mail and in-person early) at this time. In 2016, registered Democrats had a 9.8 point lead. Now, in 2024, it is registered Republicans who have a 0.9 point lead. If early voting is a measure of relative enthusiasm of the parties, Trump appears to have wind in his sails,” noted McDonald.

McDonald did, however, note that polling shows the North Carolina race to be much tighter than the early voting metrics.

“Polling shows a tighter North Carolina race than what the early vote implies, and Trump is making several North Carolina campaign stops in the waning days of the election, so the public polling and Trump’s campaign do not feel as confident as the early voting statistics imply,” he said.

“There is no error bar I can assign to my prediction, but there are plausible scenarios in the early voting signals that the polling could be correct that North Carolina is closer than the early vote forecast alone indicates,” he added.

In the closing days of the election, Trump has been hammering Kamala Harris and the Biden administration for its response to Hurricane Helene, which rocked North Carolina and caused unprecedented damage in the region.

“I also want to send our prayers to everyone here in North Carolina who’s still recovering from this unbelievable hurricane — the size of it,” Trump said at a recent rally. “Hurricane Helene, Kamala’s hurricane response was a disgrace and it was a betrayal. It was just reported that almost 50 percent of phone calls sent to FEMA were unanswered — they didn’t answer.”