Clay Travis’ Starting 11: Penn State Sill In Good Position, SEC Could Be Chaos, Big 12 A One-Bid League

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I spent a fantastic Saturday in Happy Valley, Pennsylvania, watching Ohio State beat Penn State in a raucous stadium. 

The win, which barring complete collapse from both teams, likely cemented Ohio State and Penn State as playoff participants, wasn’t pretty for either team, but it was a spectacular day for football and an awesome scene.

I met so many readers and listeners and had a fantastic time tailgating with Pennsylvania senate candidate Dave McCormick. It’s purely anecdotal on my part, but I saw virtually no Kamala flags, hats, and supporters, meanwhile there were Trump supporters, flags and hats everywhere. 

Is this purely anecdotal? Sure. But given that Pennsylvania will likely decide the presidency, a football game with over 110,000 people in it seems like a decent sample size.  

Regardless, if you hate politics or are burned out by political advertisements, you made it, this is the last weekend many of your football commercial breaks will be filled with political ads for a couple of years. 

Go vote! 

When I landed on Friday night in Happy Valley, I had an Uber driver taking me to my hotel — a recent Penn State grad and local PE teacher making extra money driving around all the people coming in for the game —  who was super excited to talk about the potential of Penn State hosting a home playoff game in December.

I do think that amid all the NIL and transfer portal talk, we’ve actually underdiscussed just how awesome the new playoff format is going to be. 

Guys, in mid-December four college football powers are going to host the first ever football games in most of their stadiums in December history. 

I mean, can you imagine how electric those campus games are going to be?

If I had my magic wand, I’d only put the college football title game in a neutral venue and play every other playoff game on campus. 

I suspect that the NFL playoff model will eventually happen in the years ahead, but for now it’s exciting just to think about the playoff games coming.

If you’re around my age, you’ve probably argued in favor of a big playoff for 30 or 40 years, now, suddenly, we’re there and I feel like we aren’t talking enough about how awesome this is going to be.  

My Uber driver said he was already saving up and would pay whatever it took to get to watch Penn State in a home playoff game. I suspect many of you feel the exact same way about your favorite teams. 

That’s fantastic.  

So how does the playoff race look? Well, after the first week in November, there are seven SEC teams, four Big Ten teams, four ACC teams, and four Big 12 teams, more in the Big 12 if you want the crazy title game tiebreaks all analyzed, all still alive for the playoff, plus Notre Dame and a bevy of non power conference teams as well.

We’ll discuss that below, but first we start with the biggest game of the weekend.   

1. James Franklin can’t beat Ohio State. 

He’s now 1-10 all time against the Buckeyes during his tenure at Penn State and I can’t help but see this as a sort of replica of Jim Harbaugh at Michigan. 

Just as many Michigan fans lost their minds over Harbaugh’s inability to get past Ohio State, many Penn State fans are frustrated with Franklin’s inability to win the “big game.” I’ve always thought the “big game” criticism is a bit unfair for any player or coach because it’s a constantly moving target — you have to win a ton of games to get to the “big game” — and as soon s you lose it, you get ripped to shreds for it, but when fans feel like they know how a season will go before it starts, even if it’s a good season, they can get frustrated with the same results.  

Generally speaking James Franklin’s Penn State teams have lost games they are the underdog in and won the games they are favored to win. 

That’s what most good programs do. 

The great programs win them all, the good programs win most of them, but lose to the great programs.

I think it’s fair to say that during the past decade and change, Ohio State has been the only great program in the Big Ten.  

So I get why Penn State fans are frustrated with the latest Ohio State loss, but the Nittany Lions have a good shot to finish 11-1 and host a home playoff game in December. 

Win that game, and you advance to a neutral site final eight game. 

If that’s failure, Nittany Lions fans have built an incredibly high level of expected success.

Just about every team in the country would gladly trade places with dispirited Nittany Lion fans this morning.  

2. South Carolina got a monster win over Texas A&M, crushing the Aggies one week after A&M smoked LSU in the second half. 

First, South Carolina is a pretty good football team. 

It’s why I picked them to win this game. 

They lost several games early in the season so they dropped under the radar, but they could very easily have beaten LSU and Alabama and be in the playoff mix themselves. They’ve played poorly in just one SEC game all year, the whipping Ole Miss put on them in Columbia.  

The Gamecocks lost both close SEC games, but the South Carolina performance the past two games at Oklahoma and at home against Texas A&M are as good as anyone’s in the conference, maybe the best overall. There’s a decent shot the Gamecocks can run the table and finish 9-3. 

As for Texas A&M, this was the most Aggie result possible. A week after the huge win over LSU, now the huge game against Texas will have even more stakes. It’s a playoff elimination game for the Aggies. 

But that’s only if A&M can win at Auburn in two weeks. 

I know, I know Auburn just lost to Vanderbilt — congrats to the Commodores on winning the Alabama state championship — but I’m telling you that game won’t be an easy win. And it may be every bit as stressful as Texas coming to town.  

And if you think that game is stressful, we’ve got Georgia at Ole Miss and the coach’s trial by combat in Alabama at LSU both coming up in the meantime. 

3. Ole Miss may be the best team in the SEC right now and I have no idea what to think of Georgia. 

Yes, they’ve lost two games, including a truly awful loss to Kentucky at home, but they lost by three to Kentucky and in overtime at LSU. Otherwise, they’ve flat out dominated most opponents, creating the biggest score differential in the conference so far. 

Their defense is underrated and when their offense is cooking, and it was on Saturday in Fayetteville, they are virtually unstoppable. 

Which is why, and I may end up looking like an idiot here, I actually like Ole Miss to beat Georgia on Saturday in Oxford. 

If that happens, look out, the SEC playoff and title race will be absolutely bananas down the stretch. 

Because then Georgia would face an absolutely must win game the next week against Tennessee.

And what do we think of Georgia after their performance against Florida? I don’t think you can trust Carson Beck. He’s thrown 11 interceptions now. Against inferior teams like Florida that might work, but with Ole Miss and Tennessee up in the next two, that will get the Bulldogs beat.  

4. Tennessee’s Nico Iameleava had a break out game against Kentucky, but most people aren’t going to notice if they didn’t watch the game. 

Nico finished 28 of 38 for 292 yards with one touchdown against Kentucky.

That sounds pretty decent on its face, but if you go beyond the box score and watched the game or go back to watch the throws, Nico had three touchdown passes dropped, two in the end zone. 

Just add those three passes to his totals and he would have finished with well over 400 yards passing and four touchdowns. 

Tennessee also missed three field goals. Just don’t blow yourself up, and the Vols would have hung 50+ on Kentucky instead of the 28 on the scoreboard.  

Why do I bring this all up? Tennessee has a national title caliber defense, but the offense has been a mess for much of the season. 

The reason I like Ole Miss? They have the potential to be elite on both sides of the ball. 

Tennessee is elite on defense, but the offense hasn’t taken shape yet. 

It’s possible that Nico found his touch in the second half against Alabama and may be surging for a November run where he starts to play with more confidence. And if he can do that, Tennessee has the horses to run with Georgia in two weeks and contend for an SEC title and playoff bid. 

Again, it’s just a spark so far, but the Vol offense feels like it’s close to catching fire. 

And given the defense still hasn’t given up more than 19 in any game — although they were fairly mediocre against Kentucky — there’s the possibility the Vols still have a next gear via their young quarterback. 

5. Big upset wins for Texas Tech and Houston over Iowa State and Kansas State scrambled the Big 12 title race in a huge way.

My biggest takeaway? The Big 12 is now much more likely to only get one playoff team since BYU is now the only undefeated team left in the conference. 

The only way the Big 12 is likely to get two teams is if someone upsets an undefeated BYU in the Big 12 title game. 

And I wouldn’t bet right now that BYU wins its final four games — at Utah, Kansas, at Arizona State and Houston — to finish the season undefeated.   

If BYU has at least one loss and the team it’s playing has one or more losses too, which is now guaranteed to be the case, I think you can put the Big 12 down as a one-bid league. 

That’s important because it opens up an additional at large bid for the SEC, Big Ten, and Notre Dame.  

As is, the Big 12 still has four teams alive for the playoff: BYU, Iowa State, Colorado and Kansas State. (If you want to argue for Arizona State, Texas Tech, or other teams with two losses, this number would get even larger, but I think they get a bit too complicated of scenarios. But after next week’s games, I’ll dive more completely into the two loss conference teams at that point.)  

6. Clemson got whipped at home by Louisville to likely end its playoff chances and go a long way toward cleaning up the ACC title picture.  

The Tigers now have two losses and if the season ended tomorrow, 7-1 SMU, which beat undefeated Pittsburgh and hasn’t lost in conference yet, would be in the ACC title game against Miami. 

This raises the possibility that Miami, if the Hurricanes won the title game, would make the ACC a one-playoff bid league. (SMU lost in week one to BYU so the Mustangs would have an argument for an at large bid at 11-2, but I think they would lose out to 10-2 SEC teams if that happened.) 

Regardless, there are now four ACC teams alive for the title and potential playoff spot: Miami, SMU, Clemson and Pittsburgh. 

And if both Miami and SMU keep winning, Clemson and Pitt are blocked out no matter what happens the rest of the way. But in the meantime, Clemson and Pitt will play in two weeks and make it a three-team ACC title race in two weeks. 

7. Let’s talk about the SEC title and playoff picture. 

Now that everyone has a conference loss we still have seven teams alive for the SEC title game trip to Atlanta and the playoffs. Much will be determined in the coming week with Alabama at LSU and Georgia at Ole Miss poised to knock it down to six or five teams in six days. 

In the meantime those seven teams still alive for the title and the playoffs are: Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU.

This picture could clear itself up really easily, or it could descend into chaos. 

What’s the easiest conclusion? Two of the four teams that control their conference title paths, win out. RIght now Georgia, Texas, Tennessee and Texas A&M would be in Atlanta if they won every game remaining on their schedules. (LSU would lose the tiebreak to Texas A&M and it’s not clear who would win a tie break over Georgia or Tennessee in the event three teams finished 7-1 in conference.)   

The most likely outcome per the oddsmakers is Georgia and Texas both win out to play in Atlanta. . 

If that happened then both those teams would be in the playoff and you could end up with 10-2 Tennessee and a 10-2 LSU or Alabama in the playoff as well. (As noted above, LSU, if they won out, would only have one conference loss so they could be in the three way tie break mix.) But regardless, I think these would be your four SEC playoff teams and it wouldn’t be that messy of a result.

Okay, but what happens if you end up with a bunch of 10-2 teams?

If Georgia wins out but loses to Ole Miss, Ole Miss wins out, Tennessee wins out, but loses to Georgia, Texas A&M wins out, Texas wins out, but loses to Texas A&M, and the winner of Alabama and LSU wins out then you end up with six 10-2 teams and a complete mess in the conference. 

Now that presumes there are no upsets anywhere else — and I think there will be — but that would be your complete mess in the SEC scenario.  

If I had to make a prediction right now, it would be this, if you get to 10-2 in the SEC, you’ll be in the playoff.

I feel pretty good about that prediction given all the crazy scenarios out there still to come.   

And 10-2 isn’t going to be easy — there are only three SEC teams right now with a single loss — Georgia, Texas and Tennessee. 

8. Indiana went down 10-0 and then scored 47 straight at Michigan State to hit 9-0 on the season. 

The Hoosiers play 5-4 Michigan and I think they will beat the Wolverines comfortably to take their record to 10-0. 

Then comes a road game at Ohio State — honestly, they could win that game too — and a finisher against Purdue. 

I think it’s time to expect Indiana in the playoff at 11-1. 

And they could, crazily, be 12-0 against 12-0 Oregon in Indianapolis?

Maybe   

The Big Ten, at this point in time, looks good for four playoff teams: Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, and Indiana.

9. Notre Dame remains poised to finish 11-1 and snag a playoff spot too.  

Yes, the Fighting Irish resume took a bit of a hit with the Texas A&M loss to South Carolina, but Notre Dame gets 1-8 Florida State, yes, Florida State is going to go from a 13-0 regular season to, potentially, a 2-10 season, we’ve truly never seen anything like this in a power conference, and then Virginia, Army, who remains undefeated at 8-0, and at USC, who lost, yet again, this time to Washington.

You have to favor Notre Dame to finish 11-1 and even with the worst loss of the season for a playoff contending team to Northern Illinois at home — NIU is 1-3 in the MAC and in ninth place this year — it’s hard to believe the Fighting Irish wouldn’t be in the playoff.   

It will be interesting to see how the committee slots them on Tuesday night.

But my projections right now would be the playoff 12 would look like this: the Big 12 champ, the ACC champ, four Big Ten teams, four SEC teams, Notre Dame, and a non-power four team as well.   

10. My OutKick Top 10 and College Football Playoff Projections

Here’s the Top 10. The biggest argument some would have is Ole Miss over Notre Dame. But I just think the Rebels are playing better than Notre Dame. But I do have the Fighting Irish at 11 as you can see in my playoff projection.  

1. Oregon

2. Georgia

3. Ohio State

4. Texas

5. Miami

6. Penn State

7. Tennessee

8. Indiana

9. BYU

10. Ole Miss

My Playoff 12: reminder I’m projecting who I think will win each conference here and that these four teams would get the byes. 

1. Oregon (Big Ten Champion)

2. Georgia (SEC Champion)

3. Miami (ACC Champion)

4. BYU (Big 12 Champion)

5. Ohio State

6. Texas

7. Penn State

8. Tennessee

9. Indiana

10. Ole Miss

11. Notre Dame

12. Boise State

So Ohio State would host Boise State, Texas would host Notre Dame, Penn State would host Ole Miss, and Tennessee would host Indiana in on campus playoff games. 

Not too shabby!

11. SEC power ratings 1-16

The top seven are pretty clear and the bottom five are too. 

Crazily, there are only three SEC teams with one loss now so that makes the top three fairly easy too. 

What’s clear at this point is the biggest upsets are Arkansas beating Tennessee in Fayetteville — that was a really bad loss for the Vols — and Ole Miss losing at home to Kentucky — that was a truly atrocious loss for Ole Miss too. Alabama’s loss at Vanderbilt, honestly, doesn’t look so bad now as the Commodores have played well against everyone in the SEC.  

1. Georgia

2. Texas

3. Tennessee

4. Ole Miss

5. Alabama

6. Texas A&M

7. LSU

8. South Carolina

9. Vanderbilt

10. Missouri 

11. Arkansas

12. Florida

13. Oklahoma

14. Auburn

15. Kentucky

16. Mississippi State