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America First Report

DCNF(DCNF)—It is nearly impossible to find a street in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, that does not have Trump-Vance and Harris-Walz signs lining the sidewalks.

The county is widely considered to be one of the most important battlegrounds within 2024’s most important battleground state as one of the last swing areas left in the suburbs of Philadelphia. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton managed to win Bucks County by less than 2,000 votes in 2016, when former President Donald Trump carried the state, and President Joe Biden won it by about 17,000 votes on his way to winning Pennsylvania and the general election in 2020.

With days to go until Election Day, Republicans and Democrats are doing their best to run through the tape and deliver the county — and the Keystone State writ large — for their respective parties. Both parties and aligned outside groups are pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into the presidential race, as well as down-ballot contests. 

A typical street corner in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, is pictured with numerous political yard signs promoting Democrats and Republicans. (Photo via Daily Caller News Foundation)

By The Numbers

Bucks County also provides a cross-section of the state at large, containing urban, suburban, exurban and rural areas. The county’s composition and its demographic breakdown make it a decent indicator of how things may turn out statewide and a county to watch closely as returns start rolling in, a Trump campaign official told the DCNF.

Nearly every prominent pollster and pundit in the country is projecting that Pennsylvania will be as competitive as can be, with Bucks County right in the middle of the partisan tug-of-war. However, Barry Summers — a data engineering consultant by day who has meticulously analyzed Bucks County voting data in efforts to help elect Republicans — believes current early voting and vote-by-mail data suggests Trump will win the county by several percentage points, he told the DCNF.

Relative to the 2020 cycle, Republican mail-in votes are up by about 20,000 — or 60% — in Bucks County, while Democrats have so far managed to secure 98% of the approximately 79,000 mail-in ballots they did in the 2020 cycle, Summers told the DCNF. Meanwhile, Bucks County has seen a 21% increase in mail-in ballots from independent and unaffiliated voters in the 2024 cycle relative to the 2020 cycle, according to Summers.

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Summers has also observed that the volume of GOP mail-in votes has accelerated since early October while the pace of Democrat early votes has decelerated since then, and that independent and unaffiliated voters are sending in their votes later “almost in the exact same pattern that the Republicans are,” said Summers. While the pattern alone does not prove anything about voters’ intentions, it suggests to Summers that these unaffiliated and independent voters may be breaking favorably enough for Republicans.

While some of these early votes could cannibalize the Election Day GOP vote, Summers has reason to believe that many of these early votes are coming from lower-propensity voters and that dependable Republican voters will mostly show up to vote on Nov. 5, he told the DCNF. Additionally, Summers sees what he believes to be clear indications that enthusiasm in some key Democratic constituencies, such as young people, is not robust.

“The Democrat propaganda says the youth are outraged and that they’re voting in droves. That is not happening in Bucks County. I looked at voting by age, for 18-year olds, for 19-year olds and so on, what percentage of the people who voted by mail-in ballot are Democrats by each age,” Summers told the DCNF. “The peak share of the Democrat voters are people in their 30s. So, in other words, people in their 30s have registered as mail-in ballot voting Democrats more than any other age of life, the college turnout is very comparable to the Democrat average for the whole county.”

“So what does that tell us?” Summers continued. “That tells us that college age Democrats in Bucks County were as motivated to turn into mail in ballot applications as the average Democrat was overall. There isn’t some surge in the youth vote where they’re all excited and everybody else can’t be bothered. That is just not happening. There’s no passion in the youth vote.”

Moreover, the unaffiliated and independent early vote has skewed toward males so far in Bucks County, a trend that benefits Trump if it holds given that Trump is polling better with men than women in the 2024 cycle, Summers said.

‘We Feel Pretty Confident’

Other Republicans on the ground in Bucks County are also feeling confident to the extent they can, albeit with more anecdotal supporting evidence than the numbers Summers cites. Several Bucks County Republicans pointed out that Trump can theoretically lose Bucks County by a margin of about two percent or less and still be in good shape statewide, as occurred in the 2016 race.

“I am cautiously optimistic. What we’re seeing on the ground here in Bucks County, it’s a wave like we’ve never seen, even in 2020 and 2016,” Ed Sheppard, the communications chair for the Doylestown Republican Committee, told the DCNF. “We’re seeing people who’ve never voted before register to vote, to come out to vote for the Republicans. And I think in Bucks County, the top of the ticket is going to drive the down ballot.”

Bucks County Trump voters who convened on Wednesday at the McDonald’s franchise in the county where the former president campaigned earlier in October also told the DCNF that they sense a level of enthusiasm and urgency from grassroots Republicans that they did not feel in 2020. Numerous local GOP officials and volunteers working to turn out voters also said they are feeling and seeing strong levels of enthusiasm for Trump on the ground in conversations with the DCNF.

Local Democrats, meanwhile, are putting stock in suburban women and the issue of abortion access to help carry Vice President Kamala Harris and down-ballot candidates to victory in the county.

“Women have been underestimated for a very long time, but we could be the reason that Bucks goes blue and we elect a President Harris,” Anna Payne, the local Democratic candidate for Pennsylvania State House, told The New Yorker in October. Nationally and in Pennsylvania, Democrats are betting that campaigning hard on access to abortion could be the key to winning over enough suburban female voters to secure electoral victories, TIME recently reported.

While some Bucks County Republicans are concerned about college-educated women showing up in force for Democrats, others, like Jim Worthington — a longtime Trump donor and ally who led Pennsylvania’s delegation at the Republican National Convention this summer — believe that abortion is not as salient of an issue for the Bucks County electorate as it may have been in the 2022 midterms, which occurred just months after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

“It’s the issue that cost Dr. Oz the election in the Senate race, as well as vote by mail. They were the two issues that cost him the election, and because they just came off the overturning of Roe,” Worthington told the DCNF. “The Democratic Party used that as a weapon, because people didn’t understand it. And as time went on, more people understood that the power has been put back to each state and the voters of each state. So I don’t think it is nearly the issue it was.”

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Worthington’s small army of volunteers mobilizing voters has consistently heard from female voters about the pressures of inflation and higher living costs, he added.

The Trump campaign, meanwhile, does not see a pressing need to tailor a specific message for suburban women in Bucks County beyond urging voters to consider whether they are better off today than they were four years ago, a campaign official told the DCNF.

“Our topline message is the same for whoever we’re talking to. That includes men or women, young or old, white, black, Asian, Hispanic, or whoever. And the message is, are you better off now than you were four years ago?” the Trump campaign official told the DCNF. “We’re bringing up kitchen table, bread-and-butter issues like inflation, cost of living, affordability. We’re talking about things like biological men playing in their or their daughters’ sports and sports leagues and using the same locker bathroom facilities. We’re talking about immigration and crime, especially in areas like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh … We’re not treating [suburban women] like an exotic other, but another group of voters who are affected by things like inflation, by crime, by these far-left pushes on things like biological men playing in women’s sports, and that sort of thing.”

“We’re not resting on our laurels or taking anything for granted, obviously, but overall, we feel pretty confident in Bucks County, and by extension, the rest of Pennsylvania.”

Featured Image: Screen Capture/CSPAN

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Five Things New “Preppers” Forget When Getting Ready for Bad Times Ahead

The preparedness community is growing faster than it has in decades. Even during peak times such as Y2K, the economic downturn of 2008, and Covid, the vast majority of Americans made sure they had plenty of toilet paper but didn’t really stockpile anything else.

Things have changed. There’s a growing anxiety in this presidential election year that has prompted more Americans to get prepared for crazy events in the future. Some of it is being driven by fearmongers, but there are valid concerns with the economy, food supply, pharmaceuticals, the energy grid, and mass rioting that have pushed average Americans into “prepper” mode.

There are degrees of preparedness. One does not have to be a full-blown “doomsday prepper” living off-grid in a secure Montana bunker in order to be ahead of the curve. In many ways, preparedness isn’t about being able to perfectly handle every conceivable situation. It’s about being less dependent on government for as long as possible. Those who have proper “preps” will not be waiting for FEMA to distribute emergency supplies to the desperate masses.

Below are five things people new to preparedness (and sometimes even those with experience) often forget as they get ready. All five are common sense notions that do not rely on doomsday in order to be useful. It may be nice to own a tank during the apocalypse but there’s not much you can do with it until things get really crazy. The recommendations below can have places in the lives of average Americans whether doomsday comes or not.

Note: The information provided by this publication or any related communications is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. We do not provide personalized investment, financial, or legal advice.

Secured Wealth

Whether in the bank or held in a retirement account, most Americans feel that their life’s savings is relatively secure. At least they did until the last couple of years when de-banking, geopolitical turmoil, and the threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies reared their ugly heads.

It behooves Americans to diversify their holdings. If there’s a triggering event or series of events that cripple the financial systems or devalue the U.S. Dollar, wealth can evaporate quickly. To hedge against potential turmoil, many Americans are looking in two directions: Crypto and physical precious metals.

There are huge advantages to cryptocurrencies, but there are also inherent risks because “virtual” money can become challenging to spend. Add in the push by central banks and governments to regulate or even replace cryptocurrencies with their own versions they control and the risks amplify. There’s nothing wrong with cryptocurrencies today but things can change rapidly.

As for physical precious metals, many Americans pay cash to keep plenty on hand in their safe. Rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into self-directed IRAs is also a popular option, but there are caveats. It can often take weeks or even months to get the gold and silver shipped if the owner chooses to close their account. This is why Genesis Gold Group stands out. Their relationship with the depositories allows for rapid closure and shipping, often in less than 10 days from the time the account holder makes their move. This can come in handy if things appear to be heading south.

Lots of Potable Water

One of the biggest shocks that hit new preppers is understanding how much potable water they need in order to survive. Experts claim one gallon of water per person per day is necessary. Even the most conservative estimates put it at over half-a-gallon. That means that for a family of four, they’ll need around 120 gallons of water to survive for a month if the taps turn off and the stores empty out.

Being near a fresh water source, whether it’s a river, lake, or well, is a best practice among experienced preppers. It’s necessary to have a water filter as well, even if the taps are still working. Many refuse to drink tap water even when there is no emergency. Berkey was our previous favorite but they’re under attack from regulators so the Alexapure systems are solid replacements.

For those in the city or away from fresh water sources, storage is the best option. This can be challenging because proper water storage containers take up a lot of room and are difficult to move if the need arises. For “bug in” situations, having a larger container that stores hundreds or even thousands of gallons is better than stacking 1-5 gallon containers. Unfortunately, they won’t be easily transportable and they can cost a lot to install.

Water is critical. If chaos erupts and water infrastructure is compromised, having a large backup supply can be lifesaving.

Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies

There are multiple threats specific to the medical supply chain. With Chinese and Indian imports accounting for over 90% of pharmaceutical ingredients in the United States, deteriorating relations could make it impossible to get the medicines and antibiotics many of us need.

Stocking up many prescription medications can be hard. Doctors generally do not like to prescribe large batches of drugs even if they are shelf-stable for extended periods of time. It is a best practice to ask your doctor if they can prescribe a larger amount. Today, some are sympathetic to concerns about pharmacies running out or becoming inaccessible. Tell them your concerns. It’s worth a shot. The worst they can do is say no.

If your doctor is unwilling to help you stock up on medicines, then Jase Medical is a good alternative. Through telehealth, they can prescribe daily meds or antibiotics that are shipped to your door. As proponents of medical freedom, they empathize with those who want to have enough medical supplies on hand in case things go wrong.

Energy Sources

The vast majority of Americans are locked into the grid. This has proven to be a massive liability when the grid goes down. Unfortunately, there are no inexpensive remedies.

Those living off-grid had to either spend a lot of money or effort (or both) to get their alternative energy sources like solar set up. For those who do not want to go so far, it’s still a best practice to have backup power sources. Diesel generators and portable solar panels are the two most popular, and while they’re not inexpensive they are not out of reach of most Americans who are concerned about being without power for extended periods of time.

Natural gas is another necessity for many, but that’s far more challenging to replace. Having alternatives for heating and cooking that can be powered if gas and electric grids go down is important. Have a backup for items that require power such as manual can openers. If you’re stuck eating canned foods for a while and all you have is an electric opener, you’ll have problems.

Don’t Forget the Protein

When most think about “prepping,” they think about their food supply. More Americans are turning to gardening and homesteading as ways to produce their own food. Others are working with local farmers and ranchers to purchase directly from the sources. This is a good idea whether doomsday comes or not, but it’s particularly important if the food supply chain is broken.

Most grocery stores have about one to two weeks worth of food, as do most American households. Grocers rely heavily on truckers to receive their ongoing shipments. In a crisis, the current process can fail. It behooves Americans for multiple reasons to localize their food purchases as much as possible.

Long-term storage is another popular option. Canned foods, MREs, and freeze dried meals are selling out quickly even as prices rise. But one component that is conspicuously absent in shelf-stable food is high-quality protein. Most survival food companies offer low quality “protein buckets” or cans of meat, but they are often barely edible.

Prepper All-Naturals offers premium cuts of steak that have been cooked sous vide and freeze dried to give them a 25-year shelf life. They offer Ribeye, NY Strip, and Tenderloin among others.

Having buckets of beans and rice is a good start, but keeping a solid supply of high-quality protein isn’t just healthier. It can help a family maintain normalcy through crises.

Prepare Without Fear

With all the challenges we face as Americans today, it can be emotionally draining. Citizens are scared and there’s nothing irrational about their concerns. Being prepared and making lifestyle changes to secure necessities can go a long way toward overcoming the fears that plague us. We should hope and pray for the best but prepare for the worst. And if the worst does come, then knowing we did what we could to be ready for it will help us face those challenges with confidence.

America First Report