GOP’s Early Voting Lead, Registration Gains Boost 2024 Odds in Swing State Nevada

LAS VEGAS—Triple-tier battleground state Nevada’s two-week early voting period ended Nov. 1 with Republicans turning out in far higher numbers than Democrats while also posting significant gains in registered voters.

Those trends have GOP boosters confident former President Donald Trump could be the first Republican to win the Silver State since 2004. Challenger Sam Brown could unseat Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nevada), and at least one Democratic-held Las Vegas-area congressional seat could be flipped in the Nov. 5 election.

Of those ballots, Republicans cast 365,283, Democrats 320,527, and nonpartisans 259,626, a dramatic change from previous election cycles, most notably in 2020, when Democrats built early voting leads that Republicans could not overcome with Election Day turnouts.

Democrats still lead in returned mail-in ballots. Of 471,398 returned, 190,520 are from Democrats, 142,869 from Republicans—more than previous elections—and 138,009 from nonpartisans, according to the secretary of state’s office.

GOP voters have a sizable advantage in the in-person early vote count. Of the 474,038 ballots cast, 222,414 (47 percent) are from Republicans, 130,007 (27.4 percent) from Democrats, and 121,617 (25.7 percent) from nonpartisans, state data show.

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While the secretary of state’s office will update statewide results at 8 a.m. PST on Nov. 2 to include the last day of early in-person voting, elections officials in most of Nevada’s 17 counties had posted closing-day figures in the hours after early voting ended 7 p.m. PST Nov. 1.

Clark County GOP voters outpolled Democrats 147,717 to 100,744 with 51,372 nonpartisans casting early in-person votes. Democrats have mailed in 138,071 ballots to Republicans 80,489 and nonpartisans 96,461, the data show.

Of the state’s 2.035 million “active” registered voters—2.34 million are registered but about 300,000 have not voted in repeated election cycles—609,954 are Democrats (29.97 percent), 600,754 are Republicans (29.52 percent) with a third, 675,982, nonpartisan and the remainder with assorted minor political parties.

The numbers have Nevada Republicans enthused about their prospects on Nov. 5.

In 2020, when President Joe Biden edged Trump by 2.39 percent, Democrats had an 86,000 wedge on Election Day, he said. Now it’s 9,200.

In the waning hours of early voting on Nov. 1, traffic was brisk at polling sites in Las Vegas.

Late to the Early Vote

Voters were waiting for up to 25 minutes to cast ballots at Nellis Crossing Shopping Center, site team lead assistant Kerstan Szczepanski said.

Since 1,197 people cast early ballots on Oct. 19, the first day of early voting, traffic has been steady but the last three days it’s been busy with 1,288 voting on Oct. 30, 1,472 on Oct. 31, and 1,452 on Nov. 1.

“Oh yeah, we’re hopping,” Szczepanski said. “We’re really hopping.”

Jessica Navarrete figured she’d vote early because ”the lines on Election Day are pretty long” and “I wanted to make sure I had time” to carefully look over the ballot.

She kept her voting preferences close to the vest but not her focus. “For me, community is important. The election, it’s about how it impacts the community regardless of candidates,” she said.

Navarrete said she’s more interested in local elections, noting “a lot of important issues” are on the ballot, such as six ballot measures that include proposed state constitutional amendments to establish the right to abortion, adopt all-party primaries, and require a photo ID to vote.

She’s voted in every election since she turned 18. “It’s important to me to do my civic duty,” she said.

Jose, a 17-year-old volunteer with nonprofit, nonpartisan Democracy For All, was part of a three-person team canvassing the shopping center’s parking lot to find unregistered voters. Nevada has same-day voting registration so someone could register and walk over to the voting site and cast a ballot.

The Rancho High School student said he’s “not really” interested in politics but volunteered because “I thought it would be interesting because I want all voices to be heard and to vote because I can’t.”

For such a civic-minded young man, he was a bit suspicious about being asked his last name. He offered “Nayarit,” the name on his ball cap.

At Seafood City Supermarket in Las Vegas, where the Philippines-based Jollibee chicken chain offers the “best fried chicken in America,” voters were busy casting ballots in the grocery store’s entrance.

Site team leader Nancy, who declined to provide her surname, said her mobile voting crew had been at the store for six days. “It’s been a hit,” she said.

“They’re doing their shopping and see us and say, ‘I might as well vote,’” she said, and a lot of folks were doing just that, keeping fellow volunteers manning a table with four “check-ins” and 10 voting machines busy.

“Everyday has been constant but this is the biggest [turnout] we’ve ever seen,” Nancy said.

Dale Eggleston, Jr., said he was relieved to cast his vote after a busy week. Asked how he thinks the vote would go, he said, “Trump.”

Asked how he voted, he said, “Trump. Trump to both.”

Las Vegas is a Democratic city, Eggleston said, but maybe that’s about to change.

“I personally know a lot of Democrats who changed over to Trump,” he said, adding he is not impressed with Vice President Kamala Harris.

“She doesn’t answer any questions. … And she’s already had three-and-a-half years” to solve problems and doesn’t merit another four, he said.

Lessons in Democracy, Transparency

Phoenix Collins just cast her ballot at the Cambridge Recreation Center not far from The Strip in Las Vegas as the last day of early voting ends in less than three hours in Nevada.

“This year’s vote is very important. Honestly, I don’t like either one of them,” when asked how she voted. “But I’m going with the lesser of the two evils, Harris. I’m voting for the kids.”

Another young mother said she only had time to vote the last day of the early voting span her “work schedule wasn’t convenient” but since she was picking her two children up from school, she took them along.

“Both the kids came along with me to watch me vote,” she said, providing a lesson in civic duty.

“I’m on pins and needles” about the outcome, she admitted, offering a “J”—the initial—as a name and no name for her ballot choices.

The Nevada Democratic Party volunteer poll-watcher sitting sentinel outside was ensuring there’d be no politicking within 100 feet of the recreation center. The entrances were thickets of political signs.

“I haven’t seen anything. Everything is good,” she said.

She was also there to assist if there were people who needed to cast provincial ballots so they “hopefully get the chance to vote,” she said.

She asked not to publish the name on her name tag, noting her job is to make sure everything is on the up-and-up.

“The more transparent, the better,” she said.