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CNN’s data guru Harry Enten warned on Tuesday that this year’s polling data may be underestimating support for Vice President Kamala Harris.

But why wouldn’t this year’s polling be underestimating support for former President Donald Trump instead? Because the pollsters already adjusted their methodology to the right’s favor after they so badly underestimated Trump’s support level in 2016, Enten explained.

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(Video Credit: CNN)

“If the polls are going to underestimate Donald Trump, once again, that would be historically unprecedented,” he said. “What normally happens is the pollsters catch on, ‘Hey, we‘re underestimating, we‘re not taking into account some part of the electorate.’”

“They make adjustments, and I think that helps to explain why we have never seen that the same party has been underestimated three times in a row in presidential elections, at least in the last 52 years,” he added.

CNN’s John Berman then asked Enten about the 2022 midterm election in which the pollsters had grossly underestimated the Democrats.

Enten responded by suggesting that if the same thing happens again, then Harris could wind up winning in a sweep.

“What do we see in 2022 in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin? Well, it turns out that the average poll in those states actually underestimated Democrats by four points,” Enten said.

“And I want to apply that to the electoral map, because [if] it turns out that the polls underestimated the Democrats like they did in 2022, well, Kamala Harris wins a sweep because she wins all these Great Lake battleground states, she wins down in the southeast, and she wins down in the southwest and she gets the 319 electoral votes,” he added.

“The bottom line is this, dear audience, I think a lot of folks are sort of counting in that Donald Trump will, in fact, be underestimated by the polls. But when I’m looking at the evidence, I think you got a hold on a second. Maybe that’ll happen. Maybe it won’t happen. But I think that there are folks who are underestimating the idea that maybe Kamala Harris will be underestimated by the polls,” he concluded.

There’s just one problem with his logic. Why would the same thing happen again? If pollsters learned after underestimating Republicans in 2016, shouldn’t they have learned after underestimating Democrats in 2022? Meaning shouldn’t they technically be underestimating nobody this election cycle?

Trump supporters for their part pushed back on some of Enten’s thoughts and conclusions.

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All this comes days after Enten predicted that Trump might win the popular vote.

“You know, everyone has been talking about this idea that Trump may win in the Electoral College but Kamala Harris may win the popular vote, but Trump may finally get his great white whale,” he began. “You don’t have to look very far to find Donald Trump ahead nationally. He was up by two points in the CNBC poll, up by three in The Wall Street Journal poll. Very close races within the margin of error.”

“But then the same thing on the other side, right? You have Harris up by three points according to Ipsos. The Say 24/YouGov poll, that’s a bunch of academics, also has Harris up by three. But the bottom line is, with the popular vote, which we really haven’t focused upon, a very, very tight race. The fact is, Donald Trump is very much in a position, he could win the popular vote, which, of course, is something he would absolutely love to do,”  he added.

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Vivek Saxena
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