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Trump Is Now Expected to Win by More Than Harris

Republicans and independents are becoming much more optimistic about Donald Trump’s odds on election day—and about the direction of the U.S. economy.

The latest survey from the Economist and YouGov finds that 38 percent of voters expected that Trump will win on election day and 35 percent expect Harris will win. That’s still a very close race, but it is a change from the polling a month ago that had 40 percent predicting a Harris win and 35 percent predicting a Trump win. Two months ago, the numbers were nearly tied, with 37 percent predicting a Trump win, and 36 percent predicting a Harris win.

Democrats have lost a little bit of confidence in Harris but remain optimistic. The latest poll finds 74 percent of Democrats predicting Harris will win in November, although the number drops to 69 percent if Democrat-leaning voters are included. A month ago, 76 percent of Dems thought Harris would win and 75 percent with leaners included. In August, 77 percent of Democrats and 72 percent of Democrats plus leaners were forecasting a Harris win.

Republicans have become significantly more confident. In the latest poll, 78 percent of Republicans say they expect Trump will win. These figures were at 73 percent and 71 percent respectively a month ago. Two months ago, they were at 69 percent and 68 percent.

One result is that Republicans are now more confident than Democrats that their party’s candidate is going to win.

Where do the independents stand? Thirty-five percent now say Trump will win, versus 24 percent for Harris. A month ago, Harris and Trump were virtually tied, at 32 percent forecasting a Trump win and 31 percent forecasting a Harris win. In other words, the Harris honeymoon which saw expectations for her to win rise rapidly (Trump led expectations among independents back in August and earlier) is decisively over.

Trump’s Voters Are More Enthusiastic, Harris’s More Negative

Trump also has a lead along another axis of support. The Economist/YouGov poll asks supporters if they are mostly voting for their preferred candidate or against the opponent. Sixty-seven percent of Harris supporters say they are voting for her, and 30 percent say they are voting against Donald Trump. Trump’s support is much more positive, with 76 percent saying they are voting for him and 23 percent voting against Harris. Harris’s support is more rooted in fear and loathing than Trump’s. How that works out in terms of election day remains to be seen.

Republicans and Trump supporters have also grown more confident about their personal financial prospects—although Democrats are still more optimistic on this score. Toward the end of September, just 17 percent of Trump supporters and Republicans said they expected to be financially better off a year from now. Now 25 percent of Trump supporters and 27 percent of Republicans say they expect to be better off. The better off forecast among Democrats is basically unchanged, at 42 versus 44 percent a month ago.

And something similar is happening when it comes to the prospects for the economy. When asked if the economy is getting better or worse, Republicans are still overwhelmingly negative. Nearly two-thirds say the economy is getting worse, a number that has held pretty steady over the months. But the share who say the economy is improving doubled from three percent last month to six percent this month.

Vice President Kamala Harris delivers remarks on October 24, 2022, in the East Room of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz)

The survey also asks whether inflation will be lower, higher, or around the same six months from now. Since Republicans are convinced that Harris’s policies will be inflationary and Democrats think the same about Trump’s, inflation prediction is now partisan. A month ago, 43 percent of Democrats expected a lower rate of inflation—reflecting their confidence that Harris would win. In October, this dropped down to 33 percent. The share of Republicans expecting inflation to decline rose to 19 percent from 16 percent last month.

Perhaps the biggest challenge for Harris to overcome has been the unhappiness of Americans with the state of the country and the economy during the Biden-Harris administration. And while it drives liberals absolutely crazy to hear it, poll after poll has found that a majority Americans think the country was better off when Trump was president. In the latest Economist poll, 51 percent of voters say the country is worse off than four years ago—and just 29 percent say it is better off. While Republicans and Democrats split on the question along party lines, independents say things are worse, with 55 percent saying the country is worse off and just 18 percent saying it is better off.

When asked if they personally are better off or worse off than four years ago, 48 percent chose worse and 34 percent say better. Among independents, fifty percent say they are worse off and just 25 percent say they are better.

That’s not the kind of public opinion climate where you want to be the nominee of the incumbent party.