Wargaming the Electoral College: The Penultimate Edition

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We’ll start this second-to-last Wargaming column by going back to basics with a look at RCP’s poll-averaged base map — complete with tossups, leaners, and likelies. Then we’ll get down to business.

RCP keeps older polls in their average longer than they probably should, and with Texas and Florida showing up as Leaners tells me they include too many oddball local pollsters. The most recent reputable poll out of Texas came out on Monday and has Trump up by ten. So let’s clean up that starter map a bit.

Please take note that Alaska is still in the Likely column and not a sure thing. Between Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system and Alaskan’s penchant for third parties, there is a non-zero chance that Kamala Harris takes the state.

Also of note: Recent polls show the battleground potentially widening to include New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia. I’d like to thank a couple of Longtime Sharp VodkaPundit Readers™ alerting me to the possibility of New Hampshire and Virginia becoming battlegrounds last summer. But that was when Joe Biden was still the nominee, and I’ve been sitting here for three months waiting to see if Harris was as weak in those places as Biden was.

A couple of polls this late in the cycle don’t necessarily turn three Blue states into tossups. But Trump did add a stop to New Mexico on his westward swing, so maybe there’s something to it.

It would be fair to ask why I bring it up if I don’t believe there’s a real chance Trump could win any of those states, so let me explain. If Trump wins the popular vote — which looks increasingly likely, if not yet actually likely — that could net him some surprise states that aren’t on most people’s radar. Also, should the battleground truly be getting bigger, it’s getting bigger in Trump’s favor, and that’s worth mentioning.

If Trump wins the popular vote (a BIG if), Nate Silver’s spread indicates that New Hampshire would likely tip Red first, followed by Virginia and then New Mexico. But those three states would come after Trump picks off Wisconsin, then Michigan, and then Minnesota — making the point moot, aside from bragging rights and a big-ass mandate.

Again, according to Silver’s model, Maine would be the next state to fall after New Mexico. But Harris is thought to be up there by eight points, and Maine hasn’t gone for a Republican since 1988.

So let’s say that New Mexico represents Trump’s absolute high-water mark, move to the No Toss-Ups maps, and look at his best-case win. I’d also add that Silver moved Nevada out of the tossup column on Monday and — just barely — into the Trump column.

(Again, according to Silver’s model, NE-2 and ME-1 are safely out of flipping range for either candidate.)

344-194 seems to be the best Trump could pull off, and the best showing since Barack Obama in 2008. And Obama enjoyed media and cultural tailwinds that a Republican dare not even dream of.

If we put Trump’s outliers back in the Blue, Trump still wins with a comfortable 312-226.

Notice that in this scenario, Harris could take Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin — and Trump would still win so long as he holds on in Pennsylvania. He’s led there, if barely, in most reputable polls for a month or longer.

Now let’s look at Harris’s top-end numbers, where every possible swing state goes her way plus Alaska.

That result is Biden 2020 plus Alaska and North Carolina. Even then, Harris’s best-possible result falls short of Trump’s. In a close election, that’s not a bad place for Trump to be — particularly since the more likely cases generally favor the Bad Orange Man.

But Harris out-performing Biden is almost impossible to believe. A much more likely top-end takes away Alaska and North Carolina, leaving her with 303 to Trump’s 235.

If you put a gun to my head and made me put $100 down on just one scenario, it would be the 312-226 result for Trump, two maps above.

But if we go to bed on election night staring in dismay at this map…