Michigan Voters to NY Times: Trump is Probably Going to Win

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With just a week to go before election day, this story about Michigan voters in the NY Times must be causing some upset stomachs in the Harris camp. This is part of series the Times has done where it interviews a group of voters and gets them to talk about what they think about the election. In this case, this group of 11 voters is made up of four Democrats, five Independents and just two Republicans in the group. So, in theory, this should not be a group favoring Donald Trump, and yet Harris is clearly not a favorite, largely because she’s seen as the status quo candidate.

Perhaps most worrisome for Ms. Harris, nine of our 11 participants thought she would pursue policies similar to Mr. Biden’s. Muhammad, a 25-year-old software engineer and registered independent who voted for Mr. Biden in 2020, said he was struck by a recent TV ad showing Ms. Harris on “The View” saying she could not think of a thing she would have done differently from Mr. Biden during their administration. For him and others, Harris’s problems boil down to two words: “Change” and “Biden.”

“I understand not pushing Biden under the bus, but she needs to be more authentic and actually take responsibility for the failures of her administration. She was the border czar, and that is a failure. All she needed to do was be authentic about that,” Muhammad said.

For most of these voters, the big issue is the economy. And on that front, Kamala Harris just is not seen as someone who is likely to bring big improvements. In fact, few of these voters thought she seemed competent to do much of anything. Asked for one word to describe Harris, here were the responses:

• “Not believable.”
• “Deceptive.”
• “I would agree with ‘deceptive.'”
• “Fake.” 
• “Opportunist.”
• “I would say ‘incompetent.'”
• “Go-getting.”
• “Word salad.”
• “Fresh.”
• “Unserious.”
• “Change.”

That is not a great list. The person who called her “fresh” is a Republican. To be fair, the same group’s comments about Trump weren’t much better. One person calls him a “criminal” and another uses the word “fascist.” Trump comes in from plenty of criticism from the group, and yet, at the end of the interview the Times asks them who is likely to win, regardless of who they plan to vote for personally. Eight of the 11 thought Trump would win.

• “I think Trump is going to win because people think that Trump gave us all this stimulus money. They’re not going to vote for the right reasons.”
• “I just think that people I know gravitate more toward him. They think that he’s going to do what he says. He’ll make everything bigger, manufacturing, more jobs, all that. It could be really close, but I think Trump will win.”
• “I feel like the energy behind Trump in Michigan is much stronger than the energy behind Kamala is. You see Trump signs everywhere. Driving wherever, I hardly ever see Harris-Walz signs. The people who support Trump seem much more energized to vote. And I think the people who would vote for Kamala are kind of apathetic, a little bit.”
• “He just has a lot of supporters here in Michigan still. Even aside from Jan. 6, aside from everything that he’s been a part of, he still has people advocating for him very hard.”

Obviously 11 people is a very small sample size but I think what we see in this interview matches up with what the polls are saying. Emerson College has a new poll out today.

A new Emerson College Polling/RealClearWorld survey of Michigan voters finds 49% support former President Donald Trump, and 48% support Vice President Kamala Harris for president in 2024. Two percent are undecided and 1% plan on voting for a third party…

Forty-nine percent hold a favorable view of Vice President Harris, while 51% have an unfavorable view of Harris. Half (50%) have a favorable view of Trump, while 50% have an unfavorable view of the former president. 

This is a very close race, partly because a lot of people on the left don’t like Donald Trump but also partly because Kamala Harris really hasn’t made a positive impression on many people. The summer of joy was fun while it lasted but it’s not going to carry her into office. People wanted more from Harris and so far they feel like she’s an empty suit who is in over her head. I don’t think that’s a problem her campaign can solve in a week, though I guess they are going to try one last time with her big speech later today.