Clay Travis’ Starting 11: Texas A&M Finally Wins a Huge Game at Home, Indiana Keeps Chugging Along

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For years, college football fans have wanted a true playoff.

Well, we’re about to enter November and the playoff picture is wide open.

I count a legit 25 teams that can look at their schedules and believe if they win out – or only lose one more game the rest of the way – that they have a legitimate shot at making the playoff.

Twenty of those teams – seven in the SEC, five in the ACC, four in the Big Ten, and four in the Big 12 – are in power four conferences. Toss in Notre Dame, and four more from outside the power conferences, and we’ve got an awesome November run coming.  

In fact, the real challenge we face as we enter November is what happens if we have too many teams with really good playoff resumes?

The SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and even the ACC playoff races are wide open, as you will see below, and this morning as I’m writing the Starting 11, there are 23 teams with 5-1 or better chances to make the playoff, including 20! with +200 or better numbers.

So how does it all shake out?

Let’s dive into the Starting 11 and see.

1. Texas A&M finally won a monster game at Kyle Field

Year after year, the Aggies have hosted huge games featuring top 25 matchups at Kyle Field.

And fallen flat on their faces in front of a raucous home crowd.

That changed on Saturday night.

Down 17-7 at the half and looking like so many of those Aggie teams in the past, Marcel Reed came in and absolutely electrified the Aggie fan base with three rushing touchdowns in about eight minutes of game play.

In so doing, a ten-point deficit turned into a double-digit lead and A&M dismantled LSU, outscoring the Bayou Bengals 31-6 in the second half.

Now A&M is 5-0 in the SEC – the only undefeated team in the conference – and faces games at South Carolina and at Auburn before Texas comes to Aggieland to close out the season on November 30th. I still think A&M loses at South Carolina or at Auburn, but even if that happens, the Aggies will have a chance to beat Texas in what would be the biggest win in Aggieland in…ever?

That’s what this LSU win did, it set the table for a special November.

As for LSU, boy, that game against Alabama in two weeks is suddenly a trial by combat for Brian Kelly and Kalen DeBoer. I’ll discuss that below in a bit, but for now, congrats to long-suffering Aggie fans on a huge Saturday night.  

2. Penn State came close to punching its playoff ticket as the big game against Ohio State arrives

The Nittany Lions got a strong second half to pull away from Wisconsin and set themselves up for an epic brawl with Ohio State in Happy Valley.

It’s not just the biggest game in Happy Valley since Joe Paterno was still coach – it’s takig place with the election just three days away and the state of Pennsylvania probably deciding our next president.

As a result, you’ve got Donald Trump coming to town for the game too, Fox’s Big Noon will be there, heck, even I’m scheduled to be there.

And, honestly, it kind of feels like to me Penn State enters this game playing with house money and Ohio State is the team with all the pressure.

Am I crazy for this take?

If Ohio State loses this game, the Buckeyes are actually on the playoff ropes.

Really.

Their Big Ten title game chances are out the window, and what massively impressive win would Ohio State have to point to on its playoff resume? Indiana, assuming that’s a win? Sure, the Buckeye brand might get them in the playoff at 10-2, but their actual on-field performance and schedule wouldn’t really justify it.

Meanwhile, Penn State, if the Nittany Lions lose, would still be in good shape to finish 11-1 and be squarely in the playoff.

But if Penn State wins, we’re talking about playing for a top two seed in the entire playoff and a trip to the Big Ten title close to assured.

I know Ohio State is the favorite, but an early pick here – I think Penn State wins this game outright.    

3. Indiana keeps winning, and we have to think about the Hoosiers going at least 11-1

Oregon and Penn State are comfortably in the playoff right now.

Ohio State is too.

But Indiana, along with BYU and Iowa State, are the three November unbeatens that no one forecast.

And after the Hoosier win over Washington to get to 8-0, Indiana has games at Michigan State and at home against Michigan before a bye week in advance of the Ohio State road game. Then woeful Purdue closes out the Hoosier season.

Could Indiana lose two of these final four games to end their playoff chances? Sure, it’s still Indiana.

But it feels like 11-1 is in play and with the way Ohio State looked against Nebraska, could the Buckeyes even be a winnable game for the Hoosiers?  

Plus, BYU and Iowa State keep winning too.

How do playoff odds look this morning for all three teams?

Iowa State is -145 to make the playoff, BYU is -115, and Indiana is +110.

Putting that in context, Iowa State, BYU, and Indiana all have basically the same odds to make the playoff as Alabama – the Tide is -105.

Just like we all expected come November.  

4. Let’s talk about the SEC playoff picture

I count seven SEC schools that are still alive to make the playoff as we prepare to enter November.

Those seven teams are: Georgia, Texas, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss.

This morning’s FanDuel playoff odds for each team:

Georgia -1700
Texas -850
Tennessee -170
Alabama -105
Texas A&M +100
Ole Miss +190
LSU +220

So how does it shake out from here?

The winner of Alabama at LSU in two weeks, I’ll write about this more below, eliminates the loser from playoff contention.

So that will get us to six SEC playoff contenders.

Then you have the following three games between contending teams: Georgia at Ole Miss on November 9th, Tennessee at Georgia on November 16th, and Texas at Texas A&M on November 30th.

The simplest solution here?

Georgia and Texas win out, and you get two 11-1 teams in Atlanta. (That’s clearly what oddsmakers expect to happen based on the above playoff odds).

Then you’d have, potentially, 10-2 Tennessee, 10-2 Texas A&M, and 10-2 LSU or Alabama fighting for playoff spots too.

Again, that’s what the oddsmakers are projecting to happen.

But you could also still end up with six 10-2 teams.

What would that look like? Georgia wins out, but loses to Ole Miss, Tennessee wins out, but loses to Georgia, Texas A&M wins out, but loses to Texas, Texas wins out, but loses at Arkansas, Alabama or LSU wins out, and Ole Miss wins out.

Good luck with that playoff picture.      

And remember there are also a ton of landmine games for all these contenders, particularly on the road, still to be played in conference. Ole Miss heads to Arkansas this weekend, Tennessee plays at Vandy to finish the year, Texas A&M still has to go to South Carolina and Auburn, Florida, which appears to be improving, plays Georgia, LSU, Texas, and Ole Miss, and Texas has to go to Arkansas. Just from these games I listed above, I’d bet at least one of these, and probably more than one, will be losses for the top teams.  

So November is going to be wild, but we’ve made it to this month with nearly half the SEC still alive for the playoff, which, I think, is really good for college football interest overall.

5. Notre Dame’s win over Navy makes 11-1 feel very likely for the Fighting Irish

Which of these four remaining games is Notre Dame losing: Florida State, Virginia, Army, and at USC.

Sure, the Fighting Irish lost to 4-4 Northern Illinois, a team that is presently 1-3 in the MAC, so they could theoretically lose to anyone left on their schedule, but if Notre Dame wins out, and boasts a road victory over Texas A&M, which is presently the only undefeated SEC team in conference play, there’s no way they are getting left out of the playoff.

So if you’re a fan of an SEC, ACC, Big 12 or Big Ten playoff team that may find itself on the bubble, you probably need to be rooting for one of these four teams to upset Notre Dame.

Maybe Lincoln Riley’s USC team will actually be relevant in the playoff picture after all — by knocking Notre Dame out of the playoff to finish the season.  

6. What in the world is going to happen in the BIg 12?

You’ve got four teams alive for the conference title and two playoff bids still in play for those four teams.

As we mentioned above, BYU and Iowa State are both still undefeated and presently favored to make the playoff.

In the event both teams finish 12-0, I’m not sure how a 12-1 title game loser would get left out of the playoff.

So the Big 12 is poised to “steal” a second playoff bid.  

Now, there are still lots of games to go to make that happen, but ultimately, BYU, Iowa State, Kansas State, and, yes, even Colorado are still alive for the Big 12 title game. (Deion’s Buffaloes are 6-2 this year and have a legit shot to get to nine or ten wins. I know Colorado has slipped off the top of the college football discussion board, but that’s a pretty fantastic achievement in year two for Deion.)

Given that the conference title game winner gets an automatic bid to the playoff, there are still four teams alive for the playoff in the Big 12.

You could also end up in a four-way one loss tie in this conference too since Kansas State-Iowa State is the only game between these four teams left on the schedule.

You could also see Kansas State and Iowa State playing in back-to-back games.    

My point?

There is much still undecided here.

7. The ACC still has five conference title contenders

Yes, five, really.

I know most of us, myself included, have been forecasting a Clemson-Miami ACC title game, but Pitt is still undefeated in conference, SMU is 4-0 and Virginia Tech, yes, the left for dead Hokies, are 3-1 in conference with the only loss being the overturned hail mary against Miami. If any of these five teams win out, they stand a really good shot at playing for the ACC title.

There’s even a world where 9-3 Virginia Tech upsets undefeated Miami and gets a top four seed in the college football playoff.

Breaking it down in greater detail, Miami is almost certainly going to be in the title game – the final four games are Duke, at Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and Syracuse.

But what about Clemson?

Clemson gets Louisville on Saturday, but then closes with conference games at Virginia Tech and at Pitt. (The last two games on the Tiger schedule are The Citadel and South Carolina, both at home and out of conference.). I’d actually make it 50-50ish Clemson wins both these conference road games.  

And what about SMU?

After a one point overtime win at Duke, SMU finishes with three home games – Pitt, Boston College, and Cal – and one road game at Virginia.

What happens if Miami, Clemson and SMU all finish undefeated in the ACC?  

I presume somehow the tiebreak would favor Clemson and Miami playing, but these mega conferences create scenarios where you can have three unbeaten teams in conference and only two get to play for the title.

That’s pretty crazy, and I’m not sure many fans have thought about this.

8. The losing coach of the Alabama at LSU game in two weeks is going to be sitting on an insanely hot seat with his fan base

This game feels like a coaching trial by combat.

If Alabama wins, Crimson Tide fans are going to look at the rest of the schedule and feel like 10-2 is likely. That won’t make them happy, but they will tell themselves that the future is still bright for Kalen DeBoer, and they’ll convince themselves that Vanderbilt was DeBoer’s Louisiana-Monroe and expect to contend for the national title in 2025.

But if they lose…

Oh my.

The Tide will have three conference losses by the beginning of November, two of them to hated rivals and the third to VANDERBILT?!

Before the games at Oklahoma or against Auburn are even played there will be a Gumprising the likes of which you haven’t seen since Mike Shula prowled the Tuscaloosa sidelines. Honestly, for a purely entertaining college football world, this would be hard to beat.

Most people don’t even remember what the Paul Finebaum show was like back when Alabama stunk.

Buddy, it was a SCENE.

In fact, many Alabama fans had convinced themselves before Nick Saban came to town that Alabama was never going to be good at football again because Paul had destroyed the program.

But, man, if Brian Kelly loses at home to Kalen DeBoer, LSU fans are going to tar and feather him too.

It will probably be even worse for him.

Because Kelly is in year three at LSU, and it feels like there is no middle ground for him, the LSU relationship with Brian Kelly is completely bipolar. He wins a big game, and they love him. He loses a big game, and they need to take him out to the bayou and feed him to the alligators.

LSU fans are either storming the field convinced they are headed to Atlanta at 10-2, or they’re going to demand Brian Kelly be fired.

There’s no middle ground.

My friends, we’ve got two weeks to figure out which fan base is going to lose its mind.  

It’s going to be a fun ride.

By the way, the daily double here would be LSU beats Alabama on November 9th and then follows it up by losing at Florida on November 16th.

Which would honestly be the most Brian Kelly result possible.

Then you’d have both LSU and Alabama fans in complete despair simultaneously.

9. I’m dropping Ohio State in my OutKick poll after the Nebraska performance

Sure, it was a trap game, but the Buckeyes were actually pretty fortunate to beat Nebraska. How about these stats? 31 rush attempts for just 64 yards. Yikes. 1-for-10 on third down? Double yikes.

I just talked about the Brian Kelly and Kalen DeBoer big game loss scenario, but if Ryan Day loses on Saturday, Buckeye fans are going to come after him with a vengeance.

But oddsmakers still love this Buckeye team.

In addition to opening -4.5 on the road at Penn State, Ohio State is among the biggest favorites to make the playoff.

Oregon -3500
Georgia -1700
Ohio State -1000
Texas -850
Miami -600
Penn State -600

These six have far better odds to make the playoff than anyone else.

10. My Outkick Top Ten

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Penn State
4. Texas
5. Miami
6. Texas A&M
7. Ohio State
8. Tennessee
9. Clemson
10. Notre Dame

My Outkick Playoff 12

1. Oregon (Big Ten Champion)
2. Georgia (SEC Champion)
3. Clemson (ACC Champion)
4. BYU (Big 12 Champion)
5. Penn State
6. Texas
7. Miami
8. Texas A&M
9. Ohio State
10. Tennessee
11. Notre Dame
12. Boise State

11. SEC power rankings 1-16

Texas A&M is the only team without a conference loss so far, but I’ve still got them at third-best overall.

In general, however, I think the power rankings are making decent sense.

1. Georgia
2. Texas
3. Texas A&M
4. Tennessee
5. Alabama
6. LSU
7. Ole Miss
8. Arkansas
9. Missouri
10. Vanderbilt
11. South Carolina
12. Florida
13. Oklahoma
14. Auburn
15. Kentucky
16. Mississippi State