Troubling Pattern Emerges for Kamala Harris As Veteran Journo Notes

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We wrote Tuesday on some pretty big news regarding how Kamala Harris’ team feels as though North Carolina has been “slipping” away from their grasp down the campaign’s homestretch.

“Of all of the seven [states], that one seems to be a little bit slipping away,” NBC News quoted a Harris campaign official as saying about North Carolina.

They have good reason to feel nervous. As we reported, black early voter turnout is low this election cycle in the Old North State in comparison to previous years. Plus, there has been an unusually strong showing from Republican voters so far in early voting here, a trend that was still holding as of Tuesday’s numbers.

That NBC News story listed not just North Carolina but also Nevada as states Harris viewed as “insurance” states in the event she lost the critical “blue wall” state of Pennsylvania to GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump.

But as it turns out, there are troubling signs for Harris in the Silver State as well related to early voting numbers, as indicated by longtime Nevada journalist Jon Ralston:

The early voting blog is updated!

Out: Clark D firewall

In: Rural R firewall.

It’s real: 16,500 votes because of massive landslides so far and higher than urban turnout percentage.

Dems need more mail, lots of indies, or big trouble in NV.https://t.co/Pl43XBMcPA

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 23, 2024

From his analysis as of Wednesday morning (bolded emphasis his):

Clark firewall: 7,000

Rural firewall: 16,500

333,000 people have voted, or 16.6 percent. If turnout reaches 1.4 million, that means just under a quarter of the vote is in.

[…]

Republicans have a 2.5 percent turnout edge.

[…]

Harris needs to be winning indies by double digits to be winning if she and Trump hold their bases. Repubs usually win Election Day, so you would still rather be them right now, but the question remains by the end of early voting if Election Day looks very different this year because so many Repubs, especially in rural Nevada, are voting early.

In another entry, Ralston wrote that “The Clark firewall has all but collapsed,” and suggested that Republicans leading in early voting, if it held, “could signal serious danger for the Dems and for Kamala Harris.”

Now, keep in mind that Ralston is no fan of Republicans, Trump especially, so if he’s putting this information out there you know it has to be real.

As further evidence, here he is trying to keep hope alive:

You can trust Andy — smart dude.

And the fact so many indies skew young is what gives Dems hope they can negate the strong GOP turnout. That is, many of the indies are Dems in disguise.

We shall see. https://t.co/GGWUWd1y0x

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 23, 2024

Though biased, Ralston has been a pretty reliable source for Nevada numbers. So, as he says, “we shall see” come November 5th how things play out there.

My colleague Brittany Sheehan, who has also been tracking Nevada developments closely, previously wrote about early voting in the state and the encouraging signs for the GOP that were being shown. She observed that “if Republicans can keep the momentum and enthusiasm rolling through to Election Day, the stage is set for a thrilling opportunity to potentially clinch a major victory for Trump.”

As always, we’ll keep you posted.