Republicans Eat Into Democrats’ Early Voting Advantage Compared to 4

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More than 17 million people have voted so far, election data show.

While Democrats have an advantage in early voting so far, Republicans appear to have embraced casting their ballots early compared with four years ago, according to newly updated data.

Republicans have taken the lead over Democrats in early in-person voting as of Tuesday morning in states that report such data, although Democrats have a clear edge in terms of voting by mail.

With two weeks to go before the Nov. 5 contest, more than 17 million Americans have cast mail-in ballots or voted early in-person so far, including more than 5 million in the seven battleground states, according to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

During the same time period four years ago, about 30 million people had voted early, according to the head of the Election Lab, professor Michael McDonald.

In the states where voters register by party, about 38.8 percent of early voters are Republican, whereas 34.4 percent are Democrat. The rest, 26.7 percent, are unaffiliated, the data show.

Democrats also make up 48.5 percent of returned mail-in ballots, compared with about 31.3 percent of Republicans for the 2024 election, Tuesday’s data show.

That’s a notable change from the 2020 election. With about two weeks to go before the previous presidential election, 52.5 percent of returned mail-in ballots were from Democratic voters, compared to 25.2 percent Republican, according to the Election Lab. At the time, the other 21.4 percent were unaffiliated.

Voting by mail was heavily promoted in the 2020 contest amid the COVID-19 pandemic, which prompted stay-at-home orders, lockdowns, and other mandates and recommendations.

“Until this point, registered Democrats have dominated the early voting period on the strength of their higher mail ballots request rate and return rate advantages. Both of these patterns are different from prior elections where registered Republicans tended to request more mail ballots and return them at a higher rate,” McDonald wrote on Oct. 18, 2020.

Other 2024 Data

In states where party registration has been recorded, about 1.9 million people have voted in person early, and some 6.9 million have returned mail-in ballots, according to the election lab. Overall, 6.6 million have voted in person early and nearly 11 million have voted by mail.

McDonald wrote on his Substack page that any conclusions made about early voting should be taken with a grain of salt.

“We need to wait till the weekend before the election before drawing any solid conclusions about what early voting may tell us,” he warned. “They may yet be unexpected ups and downs.”

In a separate post on Oct. 20, McDonald noted that early voting will pick up the pace as more states open their polls and mail-in ballots are returned.

“In-person early voting began this week in the battleground states of Georgia and North Carolina, both racking up records for the first day of in-person early voting,” he wrote.

Numbers will continue to “accelerate quickly” for this week as several other states begin early voting, McDonald said.

“Several more states began in-person early voting last week and nearly all that will offer in-person early voting will do in the coming week. Add in the vote-by-mail state of California and election officials are reporting over 2 million new votes a day,” he added.

Swing States

Swing states Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia do not include party registration data. But North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada include that information.

In Arizona, Republicans lead 43.2 percent to Democrats’ 35.6 percent, while unaffiliated voters make up about 21 percent. Arizona does not have in-person early voting data, and the only early ballots being counted so far are by mail, according to the website.

It’s neck-in-neck in Nevada, with 38.4 percent of early in-person and mail-in ballots going for Democrats and 36.9 percent going for Republicans. The remainder, or 24.7 percent, are unaffiliated.

About 50 percent of in-person early voters are Republican, whereas 29.6 percent are Democrats in the Silver State. For mail-in ballots, 42.9 percent are Democrat and 29.9 percent are Republican, the data show.

For North Carolina, 35 percent of early or mail-in ballots have gone for Democrats, 33.6 percent are Republican, and 31.4 percent are not affiliated. Republicans have an advantage in returning mail-in ballots, with 27.2 percent returning one—compared with Democrats’ 26.3 percent. For in-person early voting, 34.9 percent are Democrats and 34.1 percent are Republicans.

Data from Pennsylvania show that Democrats have a 63 percent advantage over Republicans’ 27.6 percent for early voting. Unaffiliated voters make up about 9.4 percent. Only mail-in ballots are being counted so far in Pennsylvania.

In an X post, McDonald was critical of “really bad” early voting analyses that suggest that a lower number of Democrats are returning mail-in ballots as compared with 2020. “It’s the pandemic,” he wrote.