Clay Travis’ Starting 11: Georgia Whips Texas Edition

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The idea that Texas was going to steamroll Georgia and continue to run roughshod over the SEC in its first year in the league all felt too easy.

It’s why I picked Georgia to win this game.

But it felt like the entire college football world expected to see the Longhorns roll over Georgia.

And that played perfectly into Kirby Smart’s hands.

No one plays the disrespect card in college football better than Kirby.

When you have the most talented team, and you can convince them everyone thinks they stink, you’ve got a hell of a motivational ploy.

And you could see how well it worked in the first half, especially.  

As a result, we wake up this Sunday morning without a single undefeated SEC team.

And it’s still only mid-October.

How wild is it in the SEC right now? Seven SEC teams have one loss or fewer in conference — and Alabama isn’t one of them. In fact, the Tide have two losses before November for the first time since 2007, year one for Nick Saban in Tuscaloosa.

So where are we as Halloween looms in college football and playoff debate begins in earnest?

Let’s dive into the Starting 11.

1. Georgia’s defense was dominant like we’ve rarely seen in a major road game against a top team

Consider these first half stats from Austin: Georgia allowed 38 total yards, just two rushing, had five sacks, seven tackles for loss, forced three turnovers and held Texas 0-for-7 on third down.

On the road.

Against the number one team in the country.

I know Georgia played an awful first half against Alabama in Tuscaloosa, but there’s a strong argument Georgia should still be the number one team in college football. (I have them at two.) Because what Georgia did to Texas in the first half is the best half we’ve seen from a football team this year.

The end result? Texas’s 15 point loss at home to Georgia was the worst home loss for a number one team since Pittsburgh in 1982.

Maybe these teams will meet again, but are you telling me Texas will be better against Georgia in a neutral setting?

I just don’t see it.

Now as bad as this loss was, the Longhorn schedule is still very manageable — as SEC schedules go — from here on out. The Longhorns have at Vandy, Florida, at Arkansas, Kentucky and then finish at Texas A&M. The Aggie game, clearly, looms large as it pertains to an SEC title game berth, but 10-2 would, I think, get Texas in the playoff. (There’s more discussion on potential 10-2 SEC and Big Ten teams below.)

What I’d be more concerned about was the way Steve Sarkisian seemed to panic. After saying there was no scenario where he brought in Arch Manning to replace Quinn Ewers, he did just that. It’s one thing to lose, it’s another to look totally rattled on the sideline and that’s how Sark looked on Saturday night in Austin.

Last night, many turned on their TVs expecting a Bulldog funeral, but look out, the Bulldogs aren’t dead yet. This felt more like a football revival than a wake.

Also, let me mention this, you can’t have this happen in officiating.

The refs made a bad call, Texas fans showered the field with refuse, and then the refs picked up the flag.

All you’ve done is incentivize bad behavior from fans.

If you want to make pass interference calls reviewable, fine, but picking up the flag here is a really bad look, I don’t blame Kirby Smart for going off on this. It shouldn’t have happened.

2. Replacing a legend is one of the most difficult things to do in any profession

That’s why the conventional wisdom has always been you want to replace the guy who replaced the guy, not be the guy who replaces the guy. (Trust me, I thought about this a ton in the sports context when I got the offer to take Rush Limbaugh’s slot on radio.)

So let’s be clear right off the top: anyone who took over Alabama after Nick Saban left was in for a really hard job, maybe an impossible one.

Expectations were just so high that anything short of immediate national titles would be seen as a colossal failure.

But Alabama fans know football, college football in particular. In fact, no state loves college football more than Alabama does.  

And they know better than anyone that the product they’re putting on the field isn’t high level on either side of the ball, especially not compared to what they saw under NIck Saban.

One moment in yesterday’s game that I thought was incredibly instructive and distills the transition from Saban to DeBoer at its essence.

Late in the fourth quarter, Alabama faced a 3rd and 7 from deep in Tennessee’s territory. A pass fell incomplete and instead of immediately running back to his huddle to prepare for the 4th and 7 attempt, Alabama receiver Kendrick Law shoved Tennessee’s Boo Carter in the face. Now Carter swiped back at him too, and you can argue they should have had offsetting personal fouls called here, but the fact that Law struck first and made contact, while Carter lashed back second and didn’t make contact, drew the flag. Standing alone, this would have been a huge play because it turned a 4th and 7 into a 4th and 22 — why didn’t DeBoer punt then with three timeouts left? — but this action didn’t happen standing alone.

Two weeks ago at Vanderbilt, safety, and team captain Malachi Moore lost it late in the game against Vanderbilt, kicking the football and getting a personal foul called on him in the process.

I don’t recall seeing Alabama players act out like Moore and Law late in close games under Nick Saban.

Now a diehard Crimson Tide fan might be able to point me to behavior issues on the field under Saban too, but if they happened in close games late they were extremely rare in Saban’s 17-year tenure. These two incidents coming in two weeks are indicative of clear slippage, Alabama players — and coaches — don’t fear and respect DeBoer like they did Nick Saban.

That leads to inferior play, both mentally and physically.

Heck, Alabama’s head of player personnel Eron Hodges walked into Neyland Stadium before the game WITH HIS CIGAR IN HIS MOUTH! (The winning team smokes a cigar.)

Can you imagine that happening with Saban in charge?

And it’s not just player behavior on the field late, it’s decision-making from the coaches too.

I mentioned it above, but why in the world did DeBoer go for it on 4th and 22 with three timeouts left? The clear play here was to punt, get a stop, and use your timeouts to force Tennessee to punt back to you. Your chances of converting a 4th and 22 are tiny. And by going for it, you actually give Tennessee a no risk 4th down chance. (I think Tennessee’s Josh Heupel should have gone for it on 4th and 2 rather than kick a field goal. Given the way Tennessee had been running the ball, a conversion there ends the game once and for all. Plus the Vols had already missed two kicks. Instead, Heupel elected to kick the field goal, which got Alabama the ball back, but Heupel would never have gone for it — or been able to add points — if the Tide had punted and they’d gotten the stop.)  

My point on all of this? Kalen DeBoer looks ill-suited right now to the Crimson Tide head coaching job. Part of him, which he will probably never acknowledge publicly, has to be questioning why in the world he left the University of Washington, where he could have lived a high paying, somewhat normal existence in Seattle for the rest of his coaching life, for the fish bowl of Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

After two losses in the state of Tennessee — Alabama didn’t even make the finals of the Tennessee state championship this year — the Tide season now probably boils down to a must-win game at LSU on November 9th. Win it and Alabama can hope to stay on the fringes of the playoff race, lose it and Kalen DeBoer is in for an incredibly long offseason.

And that’s presuming, by the way, there are no other losses to inferior teams, beginning with Missouri this coming weekend in Tuscaloosa.  

Final thought, this Alabama offense, which DeBoer is supposed to be in charge of, is not very dynamic.

Ryan Williams is a big-time playmaker at wide receiver, but if you have a decent corner, who scares you on offense if you can keep Jalen Milroe from running?

No one.

The defense isn’t great either, but the offense is becoming pretty predictable too.

Because other than one really good half against Georgia, has Alabama looked much better at all than Vanderbilt, South Carolina, or Tennessee in SEC play so far?

Nope.

3. Nico appeared to come alive for Tennessee in the second half

After a first half where Tennessee went scoreless for a third straight SEC game, turned the ball over three times, and missed two field goals, the Vols were still only down 7-0 to Alabama.

This is the second straight week I’ve watched a game from Neyland and I have to tell you, Tennessee had receivers running wide open all during the first half and throughout this game and the Florida game last week. The Tennessee receivers were toasting the Alabama secondary. But Nico just kept missing throws, his wide receivers had a ton of drops when he did see them, and it was just an incredibly frustrating day on offense for the first forty minutes or so.  

Until, with about six minutes to go in the third quarter, Nico and Dylan Sampson — who is as good of a running back as there is in the SEC — started to make plays.

A 91 yard touchdown drive evened the score and then came this throw from Nico, a dime rolling right on third and six with the Vols trailing 10-7, which changed the game.

This was, and is, the kind of play you see from Nico that makes you think he can be special.

It’s why Spyre, the Tennessee collective, signed Nico to such a monumental deal. Tennessee believes Nico can be one of the best quarterbacks in college football. And when you see this throw and the rope TD at Oklahoma, you can see why.

Remember, Nico has still only started eight games in his college career. He’s basically a true freshman.

Later, Nico dropped another dime for a TD on third down to give Tennessee a 21-17 lead the Vols wouldn’t relinquish.

After the win over Oklahoma, I said Nico’s growth would determine how good this Tennessee team would be. Against Arkansas and Florida, there didn’t appear to be much growth. The same was true in the first half against Alabama. But the second half showed real flashes of excellence.

The Vols are now 6-1 and will host Kentucky in two weeks. Then comes Mississippi State, at Georgia, UTEP, and at Vandy.

Figure on a loss at Georgia and a 10-2 season feels very likely for Tennessee.

That will put the Vols in the mix for the playoff.

And with wins over Florida and Alabama, despite a disappointing road loss at Arkansas, Josh Heupel is now 26-7 in his past 33 games at Tennessee, including 4-2 in his past six games against Alabama and Florida. That 4-2 record against Florida and Alabama is particularly impressive because in the prior 32 games against those two teams, the Vols were 1-31.

1-31!

Believe me, I know.

I watched them all.  

What’s fascinating about this Alabama win, and the Florida win too, is that Tennessee won both games with defense. This Vol defense is legit — no one has scored more than 19 on them all season. The knock on Josh Heupel when he came to Tennessee was he couldn’t win consistently in the SEC with his offense. Well, the offense is very average so far this year.

But Heupel is still winning.

One stat that speaks to the physicality of this Vol team? Look at rushing yards. Tennessee ran the ball 41 times for 220 yards. Alabama ran the ball 34 times for 75 yards. That’s physically dominant line of scrimmage play from the Vols. Alabama’s inability to run the ball this year outside of Milroe would scare me if I were a Tide fan.  

Tennessee’s game plan was to force Jalen Milroe to beat them as a pocket passer — Milroe was held to 14 carries for just 11 yards — and he couldn’t beat Tennessee from the pocket.

As the game ended and Vol fans celebrated with “Dixieland Delight” playing, it was a perfect Tennessee Saturday night.

And I celebrated with my family in the stands. (Minus my Bama fan son who was a bit glum).

Everything was great until I couldn’t remember where we parked, and I spent an hour walking around with my kids as drunken revelers celebrated everywhere.

In my defense, parking in the daylight and parking in night are two very different things.

4. The Big 12 has a shot to snag two playoff spots

How would that happen?

Well, it’s not that complicated, 7-0 BYU and 7-0 Iowa State both need to just keep winning.

Then you would have 12-0 BYU and 12-0 Iowa State meeting for the title.

The winner would get a top four playoff seed, the loser, at 12-1, probably isn’t getting left out of the playoff.  

That would “steal” a berth from the SEC, Big Ten, or Notre Dame.

Okay, what does BYU’s schedule look like from here on out? At UCF, at Utah, Kansas, at Arizona State, Houston.

Would I make BYU a favorite to run this table? No.

But is it crazy to think they could finish 12-0? Not at all.

Okay, what about Iowa State? Their schedule is favorable too: Texas Tech, at Kansas, Cincinnati, at Utah, Kansas State.

Are the Cyclones likely to win all these games? I don’t think so.

But could they? Certainly.

My point here is you better be paying attention to the Big 12 race as it pertains to the playoffs.

A two-loss conference championship game loser is probably going to be in a tough spot to snag a playoff spot, but double unbeatens and the loser being 12-1? That’s going to gobble up a playoff at large bid.

5. The ACC is in prime spot for two playoff spots too

Clemson has won six straight games since an opening season loss to Georgia and each of those wins has been by 16 points or more.

WIth games left against Louisville, at Virginia Tech, at Pitt, The Citadel, and South Carolina, the Tigers are poised to lock up an ACC title berth. (Don’t sleep on Pitt, by the way, the Panthers are 6-0 and get Clemson at home for an ACC title game elimination battle in November.)

Yes, there are still landmines on this schedule, but 11-1 or 10-2 Clemson would be favored to beat Miami in the ACC title game.

What about the Hurricanes?

They play Florida State this coming weekend — can we pause for a moment and consider what a disaster the Seminoles have become? We’ve truly never seen a power conference team go from 13-0 in one regular season to 1-6 in the next. It’s unprecedented.

So, after Miami drops FSU to 1-7 and rolls to 8-0 next week, the Hurricanes finish with Duke, at Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and at Syracuse.

The Canes should be favored to finish 12-0.

If that happens, the ACC title game is only about who gets the bye.

Because Miami would be in the playoff.  

If Clemson beat them, as I think the Tigers would do, that means the ACC could snag two playoff spots too.

That would leave just seven spots for the Big Ten, the SEC, and Notre Dame.

6. So how does the Big Ten shake out from here?

First, Oregon is going to be in the Big Ten title game and the playoff barring a complete and total collapse.

That game at Michigan which was supposed to be so hard looks like a cakewalk now and losing two other games against their remaining schedule is highly unlikely.

But then there are two other undefeated Big Ten teams — Penn State and Indiana, yes, Indiana.

And Ohio State is, of course, still lurking out there too with only one loss.

So there are four playoff contenders, I’d say in the BIg Ten right now. (Five if you think Illinois is going to beat Oregon next weekend, which I don’t.)

We will all spend a ton of time talking about the Ohio State-Penn State game in two weeks. But first Penn State has a tough road game at Wisconsin coming up this weekend. But regardless of what happens at Wisconsin, if Penn State beats Ohio State, the Nittany Lions are in the playoff and probably the Big Ten title game too.

Would 10-2 Ohio State with a loss at Penn State be in the playoff? My general position was yes on 10-2 teams in the SEC or Big Ten, but it’s looking like there may be a ton of 10-2 teams and the ACC and Big 12 could be in position to steal two spots. So what quality wins would Ohio State have at that point? Indiana? Because Michigan is not going to look impressive by the end of the year.

Is that enough?

We’ll see.

Which brings us back to Indiana. How good are the Hoosiers and are they a legit playoff contender?

After a crushing of Nebraska, Indiana is 7-0 and gets Washington, at Michigan State, Michigan, at Ohio State and Purdue to finish the year.

11-1 actually looks downright possible.

So I think you have to put Indiana as a legit playoff contender now too.

In fact, how would the playoff committee rank 11-1 Indiana compared to 10-2 Ohio State if Ohio State beat Indiana, but finished with a worse record in conference?

As we enter the end of October, I’d put the Big Ten down for four playoff contenders and think three bids feels likely with four potentially in play.    

7. Okay, so how many playoff spots does the SEC get?

And how in the world does the rest of the season go now that every team has at least one loss?

It could go really simply, three or four teams could finish 10-2 or better and all of those teams could advance to the playoff without much complexity.

Texas runs the table, Georgia runs the table, LSU runs the table, and Tennessee runs the table except for a loss at Georgia.

I think these four teams would all get in the playoff then.  

But here’s the chaos scenario for all of you, what if a whole bunch of SEC teams finish 10-2? Consider, Texas wins out, but loses at Texas A&M, Tennessee wins out, but loses at Georgia, Georgia wins out, but loses at Ole Miss, Ole Miss wins out, LSU wins out, but loses to Alabama, Alabama wins out, Missouri wins out, but loses to Alabama, and Texas A&M wins out, but loses to LSU.

Am I crazy or do you end up with seven SEC teams all 10-2? (In this scenario, LSU and Texas A&M would both be 7-1 in conference, which would put them in Atlanta, but the USC and Notre Dame losses give them two losses too.)

Now you can say that’s unlikely — upsets, after all, are likely to happen — but a logjam at the top of the conference feels somewhat likely at this point.

And does a 10-3 team that loses the SEC title game get left out of the playoff in favor of teams that didn’t make it to Atlanta?

Before the season, I said 10-2 in the SEC or Big Ten would definitely get you in the playoffs. Now I’m not so sure. In fact, in the above scenario, you’d have three or four ten-win SEC teams left out of the playoff.  

As we near the end of October, I’d say there are seven SEC teams that still have legit playoff hopes.

And all of this doesn’t even consider how to factor in Notre Dame either.

I’d still say four SEC teams are likely to make the playoff, but buckle up, this is potentially going to be really messy.  

8. Michigan and USC are really bad football teams

Remember when these teams played a few weeks ago and Michigan couldn’t complete a forward pass and still found a way to beat USC?

And that felt like a big win for Michigan?

Yeah, not such much.

Illinois completely whipped Michigan and now the Wolverines, one year after a national title, look like a 6-6 team and Sherrone Moore appears to be in over his head as head coach.

Yikes.  

Meanwhile, USC’s Lincoln Riley, whose team lost to Maryland yesterday, appears to have pulled off a miraculous feat, by leaving Oklahoma for USC he destroyed the Oklahoma program and the USC program.

I’m honestly not sure USC even makes a bowl game this year.

Lincoln Riley is now 5-9 in his past 14 games at USC and you have to wonder what his long-range future at USC is.

Putting that 5-9 into perspective, Billy Napier is 6-8 in his past 14 at Florida. Yes, Billy Nappier has been better in his past 14 games than Lincoln Riley has. (By the way, the Gators are trending up, I think Napier may end up saving his job. Yes, the next four games are Georgia, at Texas, LSU, and Ole Miss, but I feel like Napier might be able to get the upset in one of these games and then FSU looks ripe to beat, that would get him to 6-6 on the year. He will they fire him for that if his freshman quarterback continues to show strong improvement, he has a massive buyout and he makes a bowl game? I’m not so sure.)

9. Army and Navy both keep winning

Both schools are 7-0 for the first time since 1926.

Regardless of who you root for, this is badass.

And I’ll point out the same thing that I did last week, we are trending towards a conference title game between these two teams, potentially for a playoff spot!, the week before they play the Army-Navy game.

10. My Outkick Top Ten and the Outkick Playoff 12

I told you last week I thought it was possible there is no undefeated team in the playoff this year.

After Texas’s loss, that feels even more likely.

For my Outkick top ten and my playoff rankings, I’m trying to weigh quality of wins — Georgia now has at Texas and Clemson on a neutral site, for instance, the two best wins of any team — and Notre Dame has a win at Texas A&M, but a loss to Northern Illinois, which cancel each other out.

Anyway, here’s my current top ten rankings.  

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Texas
5. Penn State
6. Miami
7. LSU
8. Tennessee
9. Clemson
10. Texas A&M

My Playoff 12

I’m projecting the four conference title game winners based on how play in those conferences has gone so far and I have Boise State as my top non power five team.

1. Oregon (Big Ten Champion)
2. Georgia (SEC Champion)
3. Clemson (ACC Champion)
4. BYU (Big 12 Champion)
5. Ohio State
6. Texas
7. Miami
8. LSU
9. Tennessee
10. Texas A&M
11. Indiana
12. Boise State

11. SEC power rankings 1-16

Every team now has a loss.

So hopefully you guys will stop yelling at me about head-to-head since it’s now impossible to rank every team that beat every other team above them.

Here are my rankings amidst the conference chaos.

1. Georgia
2. Texas
3. LSU
4. Tennessee
5. Texas A&M
6. Alabama
7. Missouri
8. Vanderbilt
9. Ole Miss
10. South Carolina
11. Arkansas
12. Florida
13. Oklahoma
14. Kentucky
15. Auburn
16. Mississippi State