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More than 40 percent of absentee ballots sent to voters in Detroit have already been returned, sparking concerns about Democrat ballot harvesting among people who remember the suspicious events that plagued the city in 2020. But the data also indicates the return rate spike might have more to do with a decrease in ballots being requested, rather than a significant increase in ballots being returned this early.

Detroit has sent 100,470 absentee ballots and received 41,235 — a 41 percent return rate, according to data released by the secretary of state’s office on Tuesday. At the same point in the 2020 presidential election (Oct. 12), the city had issued 132,879 absentee ballots and only received 34,735 — a 26 percent return rate. An X user affiliated with the group VoteHub pointed out that Detroit’s return rate was in a “league of its own” compared to other jurisdictions in the state.

However, the raw number of people returning ballots this early in Detroit isn’t wildly different than it was this time last presidential election.

“I don’t want to prevent anyone from identifying red flags, but this is kind of standard,” Ashley Hayek, executive director of America First Works, which is conducting voter canvassing in Michigan and elsewhere, told The Federalist.

Of the absentee ballots cast so far in Detroit, 70 percent were also returned more than two weeks before the 2020 election, Hayek said, citing data obtained by America First Works. Sixteen percent of the total were from voters who returned absentee ballots within two weeks of Election Day 2020, 5 percent were from voters who voted in person last time, and only 8 percent were from people who did not vote in 2020, she noted.

Large turnout ahead of the election is not necessarily unusual, Hayek said, due to digital advertising and get-out-the-vote efforts which often target the left.

What is substantially different in Detroit this time around is the number of absentee ballots requested: down to 102,401 as of Tuesday compared to 142,622 at this point in the race in 2020.

“It means that there is less enthusiasm for their candidate,” Hayek said, noting that her group’s canvassers on the ground have seen less turnout from Muslim communities in Detroit.

“We have had Muslim-American canvassers on the ground since July. They speak Arabic, they speak Farsi. They have been in specifically Wayne County,” Hayek said. “The lack of enthusiasm is pretty remarkable, that we’ve heard so far.”

Anti-Israel groups urged Muslims to vote against President Joe Biden in Michigan’s Democrat primaries this year, with an “uncommitted” vote defeating him in enclaves near Detroit like Dearborn, as The Federalist reported. And after Vice President Kamala Harris seized the party’s nomination from Biden, Muslim-American groups refused to endorse her.

Across the state of Michigan, the number of absentee ballots cast at this point in the race is down compared to 2020. The Michigan secretary of state’s office announced more than 672,000 absentee ballots had already been cast statewide as of Tuesday. At the same time in 2020, more than 977,000 absentee ballots had been cast.

Former President Donald Trump recently surpassed Harris in Michigan polls for the first time since July, according to RealClearPolitics. 

“I don’t focus on polls. I focus on ballot returns, and at the end of the day, our people still are not super comfortable with vote by mail,” Hayek said. “We have canvassers on the ground, and at the end of the day, the majority of conservative voters prefer to vote on Election Day.”

She said conservatives have reason to be hesitant about voting by mail, considering postal carriers’ endorsement of Harris. The Federalist recently uncovered that the National Association of Letter Carriers called Trump an “existential threat” in a letter to its members.  

“Republicans need to make sure that they take advantage of early vote, and they also need to make sure that they’re turning out their family and friends to vote too,” Hayek said. “Because at the end of the day, this is going to be a very, very close election.”

The Republican National Committee sued the Detroit Department of Elections this week, accusing the city of “deleting drop box surveillance footage after [the party] had requested it.” In a release, RNC Chair Michael Whatley called this an “assault on transparency.”

For more election news and updates, visit electionbriefing.com.

Logan Washburn is a staff writer covering election integrity. He graduated from Hillsdale College, served as Christopher Rufo’s editorial assistant, and has bylines in The Wall Street Journal, The Tennessean, and The Daily Caller. Logan is originally from Central Oregon but now lives in rural Michigan.